Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Volatility a little higher

With the main indexes seeing a little weakness, the VIX managed to hold minor gains, settling +2.1% @ 13.39. Near term outlooks remains a VIX likely to trade within a tight range of 13/11. It remains very unlikely for the VIX to break >20 until Jan/Feb' 2014.




Little to add, market volatility remains very low, and even the mid teens look out of range this side of thanksgiving.

Despite some significant interest in Feb/March VIX upside (see 12pm video post), there seems near zero point for anyone to be taking new VIX-long positions before Jan'2014.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp -3pts @ 1787. The two leaders -  Trans/R2K, settled -1.0% and -0.5% respectively.  Near term outlook is for a sub'5 wave higher..possibly all the way into the weekend. Main upside target zone is sp'1810/30.



*the two leaders..kinda more interesting closing declines, but still...nothing too major.

A very quiet day.

It would seem the market has just churned through a sub'4 wave...with a 5 - to complete larger 3.

Regardless of however you want to count this..the primary trend sure ain't down..is it?

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - battling higher into the close

The indexes look floored on all the smaller cycles, with a daily close in the sp'1790s very likely. Metals remain weak, whilst the USD is a touch lower. Equity bears have very likely seen their little down wave from 1802 to 1784 complete. Upside target zone is 1810/30 into early December.



It remains a rather quiet day, and with the momo stocks..nor metals showing the downside action of yesterday, its kinda..dull.

Hourly index cycles look floored in the mid 1780s..and I have to guess we'll be battling higher for the rest of the week.

Next week is a holiday week of course..so..don't expect anything significant either way then.

A case of 'turn off ya screens' until next year?

...for the equity bears.....yes.

3.04pm..ohh lookie.. its queen cheerleader Bartiromo...just 4 more days left for her on clown network'2.

Has anyone ever watched Fox business? Hell, I can't even get it on satellite here...the horror!

VIX looks maxed out..at declining resistance..and set for another multi day wave lower..probably all the way into the Friday close.

3.19pm... UAL ceo appears on clown TV, that has to be good $1 on the stock, lol

market rallying...somewhat into the close. ..as expected.

It is always good to see the market 'behaving itself' in terms of the intraday action.

3.33pm..I really shouldn't be surprised, but the level of ignorance by CNBC 'contributors' is astounding.

Just had some idiot woman on there touting 'who knows'.. in terms of the number of bitcoins. She actually had ZERO idea what she was talking about.

No doubt the zerohedge doomer maniacs will be on her case this evening.

3.44pm..hmm, a touch of weakness, but the earlier low of 1784 is still holding. Things only get interesting with a move into the 1770s..and that still doesn't look likely right now.

2pm update - floored in the 1780s

The main indexes look floored in the sp'1785/80 support zone. With a fair bit of QE fuel circulating out there today, a daily close in the low 1790s looks viable. New highs look due across the remainder of the week. Metals remain weak, with major downside likely as the week continues.


SLV, daily3


Today continues as expected. A fair bit of chop...and so far..the first support zone of 1785/80 is comfortably holding. Indeed a close in the 1790s would again confirm the underlying strength.

2.35pm .. market looks primed to spike higher in the closing 90mins. 

1pm update - sub sp'1700s not viable

In the immediate term at least, sub' sp'1700s simply do not look viable. The best the bears can get in the near term is a test of the recent 1760 low, perhaps 1750/40..by mid Dec, the 1770s will act as major support.



Not much going on today...mostly chop..as expected.

The above chart should concern all those who are seeking some sort of significant end year fall. Frankly, I find that now entirely implausible.

UAL holding the breakout..and building gains....

The 2007 high of $48 remains the target...assuming the main market holds together into late spring 2014.

1.33pm.. renewed push lower, sp'1785..  will be tough to break into the 1770s. I guess the wave counters could count this down as a small C' wave..which should floor before end of day.

Looks about done.

12pm update - minor weakness

The main indexes are seeing another micro wave to the downside. The sp'1785/80 zone should hold across today, a daily close in the 1770s would still seem rather unlikely. Metals remain weak, and look set for a major snap lower later this week.


SLV, daily'3


The minor chop continues..on what is not a particularly interesting day.

Notable strength remains in TSLA and UAL.

VIX update from Mr T.

Traders are indeed starting to load up on Feb/March VIX positions. However, from a decay point of view, that doesn't make much sense to me. They'd probably be able to buy for 50% cheaper in early January.

But hey..I'm not running a giant hedge fund...

Time for tea!

11am update - the chop continues

The main indexes are mixed, with the Dow clawing back into the 16000s. Metals remain weak, despite a slightly weaker USD, -0.1%. Notable movers remain TSLA and UAL.



The QE fuel is no doubt negating some of the selling that is going on.

Yet, as many note.. there is also the issue of rotation. The Dow has been lagging for half a year...and that is where much of the hot money now moving into.


Today will indeed likely remain one of minor chop...ahead of tomorrow's FOMC minutes and retail sales data.

10am update - opening chop

The main indexes open with some minor chop, and there will be another dose of QE-pomo to negate most..if not all of any sell side pressure. Metals are mixed, with underlying downside pressure. Notable early mover..the airline stock United Continental (UAL)


UAL, daily


*A clear breakout, UAL upside target is the double top from 2007 of $48.

Choppy open..and I'm guessing that will be the style across the day.

I'd still expect another wave higher across Wed/Thursday.

*bears should keep in mind, next week is a holiday week..there seems next to zero reason why we'll see any sig' price action at all.

10.03am.. an opening VIX spike..to the previous high of 13.40..and a fail.

Equity bears are likely 'done' for the day, not that I'm expecting new highs today.

TSLA seeing a rebound, +4%, but really..broader trend is still bearish.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 1788. Metals are mixed, Gold +$3, Silver -5 cents. Equity bulls have another QE today to offset what minor sell side pressure there is. Market should find support in the 1785/80 zone.



A daily close in the 1770s seems very unlikely, not least with sig' QE-pomo today.

I would be surprised if we broke new index highs today, more likely..this is just a sub'4..and we will see some price chop in the 1785/95 zone for the entire day.

Notable early mover... TSLA, -1.2% @ $120. A mere $10 from my target zone.

Video update from Mr Permabull

$60 TSLA ? Wow, I thought my 110/100 target was bold.

9.43am.. minor chop..which will probably last for the day. 1785/80 should hold as support.

Broader outlook remains on track

Today was certainly an interesting start to the week. A latter day reversal - after new historic highs, with particular weakness in the once beloved momo stocks..and those 'not so shiny anymore' precious metals. Regardless of near term noise, the broader outlook remains on track.

sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook

sp'weekly'4 long term bullish outlook


There really isn't much to add. Today was good in that at least another two big psy' levels were reached - all that is missing are the Nasdaq 4000s, not that it has to happen this week..or month.

The remainder of the year will surely reside largely on the side of the bulls..with a year end close somewhere in the 1775/1850 zone.

Looking ahead

There really isn't anything due tomorrow. The next main issues will be on Wednesday - retail sales/FOMc minutes.

*there is sig' QE-pomo....bears beware!

A good start to the week (I'm short the metals..and am leaving those gods damn indexes alone until next spring)...I hope some of you are doing similarly okay.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes broke new historic highs, with Dow 16000s, and Sp'1800s. There was some distinct latter day weakness, with the sp -6pts @ 1791. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.8% respectively. 





The recent break into the 15800s for the Dow was a clear sign (at least to me) that this market has a lot of steam left in it.

Equity bears face relentless support via the fed, and despite any minor down waves in the coming days..and weeks..broad upside is still expected into spring 2014.

Frankly, I'm tired of the doom. Call that a contrarian indicator all you like, but hey..didn't we just break new index highs today?

Video update from Mr Riley

a little more later....