Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -8pts @ 2046. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for sp'2025/20 zone... which would seem highly probable with continued concern about a looming GREXIT.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*I'm tired... so I'm keeping things short.
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Suffice to say... it would seem that bears will see a major down wave tomorrow.... possibly all the way to the 2025/20 zone. No doubt, that will get many of the doomers somewhat excited, but.... considering last weeks hyper-gains.... it will only make for a 50% retrace or so.

I will add, I do think it rather important for the market to make new highs within the next few weeks.

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A daily wrap at 8pm EST

3pm update - it remains a bear flag

US equities break a marginal new daily low of sp'2046, although VIX has not broken above the opening (black fail candle) high of 19.28. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$6, but the 'shiny relics' look set for further sig' downside this week.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

So.. not the most exciting of days, but market looks set for the 2020s... which is certainly within range for tomorrow.

It won't take much of a 'spooky' Greek/ECB headline to give the market an excuse to retrace some of last weeks hyper-gains.
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... I remain tired... and am more than content to hold SLV (short) overnight....

back at the close

2pm update - bear flag

US equities remain moderately lower. Price structure is a rather clear bear flag on the smaller 60/15min cycles, and it strongly bodes for the sp'2020s tomorrow/Wednesday... which will likely equate to VIX back in the 20s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*writing from my bed... surviving on tea and chocolates!
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So... a bear flag on in the indexes... and I'm surely not the only one who notices it. Market should have a fair chance of closing at the lows of the day.. with the 2025/20 zone tomorrow... or Wednesday at the latest.

There is naturally a corresponding bull flag on the VIX hourly... the setup looks pretty clear, strongly favouring the equity bears.

Notable weakness: AA -5.3%... having tested the 200dma... but it'll probably be trading under it tomorrow!

12pm update - minor chop

US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp' -2pts @ 2053. Price structure on the smaller 5/15min cycles is offering a bear flag with renewed weakness in the late afternoon. The 2025/20 zone still looks viable... whether Tue/Wed.


sp'60min

Summary

So... nothing particularly dynamic going on in the broader market.

Best guess.. further weakness late today/tomorrow. Were I considering an index long (which I'm not)... I sure wouldn't be in any hurry right now.... not least with more sporadic Greek/ECB headlines due tomorrow and Wednesday.

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Notable weakness

AA, -5%.. set to lose the 200dma in the 15.50s...

... looks pretty ugly. Until it can get a monthly close in the $18s.... I am increasingly skeptical.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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*I am short the precious metals via SLV from the $16.30s. The mid/low 15s look viable in the near term.... with broader downside to 12/10 by late summer.
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time for tea... in bed...    back at 2pm

10am update - opening minor weakness

US equities open a little lower, but there is already the first sign of the broader underlying strength as seen across much of last week.  Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$2, and Silver +1.6%. Oil is +1.6% on OPEC comments.


sp'60min

Summary

So... a little lower to start the week, but it would seem the market is going to need some further 'spooky' Greek news to knock things far lower.

On balance, it'd just seem a case of whether later today... or early tomorrow, for the next bad news to cross the news wires. I sure don't see sp'2060/70s in the immediate term.
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Notable weakness, TSLA -1.4%... ahead of Wed' earnings

I'm suspicious of 250/260 being hit on earnings this Wed'. Clearly though, the 200dma around $228 needs to be broken first.. before any hyper-gains are viable.

Airlines are weak, UAL -4.9%... as Oil holds above the $50 threshold. Much like the precious metals, I don't see $43 as a key low, not least with the USD likely to continue climbing in the months ahead.
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10.18am... SHORT SLV from 16.35.

Its more of a tactical position, that my usual 3-5 day swing trade. In any case.. its met my buying target... I'll take it.

Now.. I really will be getting back to bed....

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back at 12pm... or 'sometime later'

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2048. Equity bears look to have a viable downside target zone of 2025/20 in the immediate term. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$3. Oil is on the rise after OPEC comments, +0.5%.


sp'daily5

sp'60min

Summary

*I'm not in the best of moods. Just one hour of sleep last night, and some time on the operating table this morning. If I disappear today... its because I've fallen asleep.

I'd consider a short-SLV trade, but frankly, having been stabbed with more needles than I care to think of, I don't think I should be hitting any buttons today.
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As for the market... as many thought over the weekend, we have a little weakness to begin the week. There is natural support around sp'2025/20, I don't think we'll go much under there in the immediate term.

As ever though... sporadic Greek/ECB comments are going to keep the market highly vulnerable to powerful intraday swings.
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Update from Mr C.


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Notable early weakness: AA -2.3%... really having some problems lately

TWTR, -1.6%.. naturally cooling/minor retrace after the big earnings gains
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back at 10am.... (perhaps)