VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Nothing to add.
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more later... on the indexes
Wednesday, 21 October 2015
VIX climbs into the close
With equities closing moderately weak, the VIX battled upward into the close, settling +4.6% @ 16.47. There will be increasing resistance in the 17/18s... sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks unlikely in the near term.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Nothing to add.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Nothing to add.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -11pts @ 2018 (intra high 2037). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for further equity upside, with all indexes set to test their respective 200dmas.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour: some distinct weakness into the close... but still.. nothing significant.
--
So... another broad day of chop.
No doubt some will be getting overly excited at the net daily declines, but then... most of those same people have been holding short from the sp'1900/50 zone.
For the moment I can't take any of the sporadic down waves seriously.
Lets see how China trades overnight.. and how the EU market reacts to the ECB tomorrow.
--
more later... on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour: some distinct weakness into the close... but still.. nothing significant.
--
So... another broad day of chop.
No doubt some will be getting overly excited at the net daily declines, but then... most of those same people have been holding short from the sp'1900/50 zone.
For the moment I can't take any of the sporadic down waves seriously.
Lets see how China trades overnight.. and how the EU market reacts to the ECB tomorrow.
--
more later... on the VIX
3pm update - chop into the close
US equities are set to close with further minor chop for a fourth consecutive day. The smaller 15/60min cycles are arguably floored at sp'2020, and with an ECB announcement/press conf' tomorrow, the equity bears should be very mindful that Draghi might help inspire a major break above the 200dma.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Tiresome day.
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*Oil remains notably weak, -1.7%... having tried to rally after the inventory reports.... failed.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Tiresome day.
--
*Oil remains notably weak, -1.7%... having tried to rally after the inventory reports.... failed.
2pm update - clearly a top is in, right?
With moderate cooling from sp'2037 to 2020, the chatter is once again increasing, and the top callers are out there. Its the same old nonsense... over and over... just as it was on 'jobs Friday' with sp'1893... then on the subsequent Monday with sp'1960s. Here we are... 2020s.. and they're still at it.
Meanwhile.. the 3 leaders.. are leading.
AAPL, daily
DIS, daily
INTC, daily
Summary
... and thats all I got to say about that.
Meanwhile.. the 3 leaders.. are leading.
AAPL, daily
DIS, daily
INTC, daily
Summary
... and thats all I got to say about that.
1pm update - underlying upward pressure
It remains the case that despite an awful lot of chop (and top calling from some traders)... US equities continue to broadly climb, as the underlying price pressure is increasing to the upside. The bigger weekly cycles offer (in theory), a clear and easy 2-3 weeks further higher.
sp'weekly1b
Nasdaq comp', daily
Summary
*eyes on the tech'.. it is the first index to be brushing the 200dma. If we see the 4930s... it will bode for much higher levels into year end.
--
Little to add.
Three big Dow stocks I highlighted from May-August - AAPL, DIS, and INTC, which lead the broader market down.. continue to push higher. Bears... beware.
-
back at 2pm
sp'weekly1b
Nasdaq comp', daily
Summary
*eyes on the tech'.. it is the first index to be brushing the 200dma. If we see the 4930s... it will bode for much higher levels into year end.
--
Little to add.
Three big Dow stocks I highlighted from May-August - AAPL, DIS, and INTC, which lead the broader market down.. continue to push higher. Bears... beware.
-
back at 2pm
12pm update - continuing chop
US equities remain in chop mode (day'4) but with rather clear underlying upward pressure. Equity bears simply are unable to muster any sustained/significant downward pressure, the sp'2040s remain due. If Draghi can 'inspire' the EU markets via increased QE threats tomorrow... a break above the 200dma will occur.
sp'daily5
USO'daily2
Summary
*price structure on Oil is a real mess, having tried twice now to break/hold the $50 threshold. Cyclically, it is due another up cycle in the immediate term
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As for the equity market, it should be clear, the underlying pressure is UP. If the market can cope with the ECB/FOMC... the 200dma will not hold as resistance.
For now.. there seems zero reason to attempt any market shorts.
--
notable severe downside in Valeant...
daily
It is notable that today has seen a death cross in VRX. I'd imagine some of those writing naked Puts will have lost everything today.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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back at 1pm
sp'daily5
USO'daily2
Summary
*price structure on Oil is a real mess, having tried twice now to break/hold the $50 threshold. Cyclically, it is due another up cycle in the immediate term
--
As for the equity market, it should be clear, the underlying pressure is UP. If the market can cope with the ECB/FOMC... the 200dma will not hold as resistance.
For now.. there seems zero reason to attempt any market shorts.
--
notable severe downside in Valeant...
daily
It is notable that today has seen a death cross in VRX. I'd imagine some of those writing naked Puts will have lost everything today.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
back at 1pm
11am update - still too much oil
The latest EIA report of a weekly surplus of 8 million barrels is another reminder that the underlying supply issue has not been address. Cyclically though, Oil is due to rally into November.. back above the $50 threshold. Meanwhile, the metals aren't faring well, Gold -$11, with Silver -1.5%
USO' 60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*little to be said for the main indexes.. it remains choppy.. ahead of the Thursday ECB.
--
re: Gold, price structure could be argued is a bull flag... but currently.. it is a failure to hold the 200dma.. and that ain't bullish... is it?
--
As for Oil... the 5/15/60min cycles are offering a spike floor, with USO @ 14.34. The black-gold bulls need a daily close in the $15s... that won't be easy.
--
notable weakness...
VRX, daily
What a train wreck.. .with claims that the whole thing is a fraud.
USO' 60min
GLD, daily
Summary
*little to be said for the main indexes.. it remains choppy.. ahead of the Thursday ECB.
--
re: Gold, price structure could be argued is a bull flag... but currently.. it is a failure to hold the 200dma.. and that ain't bullish... is it?
--
As for Oil... the 5/15/60min cycles are offering a spike floor, with USO @ 14.34. The black-gold bulls need a daily close in the $15s... that won't be easy.
--
notable weakness...
VRX, daily
What a train wreck.. .with claims that the whole thing is a fraud.
10am update - VIX slammed for opex
US equities open a little higher, sp +4pts @ 2035, whilst the VIX is slammed at the open for opex... breaking -8% to 14.41. With the USD broadly flat in the DXY 94.90s, commodities are under pressure... Gold -$10.. with Oil -1.4% in the $45s.
VIX'60min
sp'60min
Summary
There really isn't much to add.
The sp'2040s look probable today.. ahead of the Thursday ECB.
Unquestionably... eyes should be on China... having seen the biggest daily decline in a month.
-
notable strength: DIS, +1%... set for the $111s... and onward to the $120s
--
New stock... Ferrari (RACE)
Marking a cycle peak as Alibaba did in Sept 2014? Hmmm
-
*awaiting the EIA report (10.30am)....
back soon
10.32am.. 8.0 million barrel surplus.... ugly. Oil -2.3% in the $44s.
notable weakness. VRX -20%.. after claims the whole company is a fraud.
VIX'60min
sp'60min
Summary
There really isn't much to add.
The sp'2040s look probable today.. ahead of the Thursday ECB.
Unquestionably... eyes should be on China... having seen the biggest daily decline in a month.
-
notable strength: DIS, +1%... set for the $111s... and onward to the $120s
--
New stock... Ferrari (RACE)
Marking a cycle peak as Alibaba did in Sept 2014? Hmmm
-
*awaiting the EIA report (10.30am)....
back soon
10.32am.. 8.0 million barrel surplus.... ugly. Oil -2.3% in the $44s.
notable weakness. VRX -20%.. after claims the whole company is a fraud.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning, and welcome to the future. It is Oct 21st 2015, with US equity futures moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2035. A break into the 2040s looks due, with a test of the 200dma tomorrow... if Draghi threatens more QE.
sp'weekly1b
Summary
So... we're set to open a little higher, as the underlying momentum increasingly swings back toward the equity bulls.
The market only has to ride through the next ECB and FOMC announcements... and if any daily closes in the 2070s... it will be a straight run into the 2100s.
*notable early weakness: oil, -1.4%.. ahead of the latest EIA report.
TWTR, -5.0% in the $29s.
-
Doomer chart, Hunter with Merk
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--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: +1.9% @ 18554
China: hit a new cycle high of 3447, but cooled rapidly in the afternoon session, settling -3.1% @ 3320. This should be somewhat concerning to the bulls... who need to re-take 3400 again this week.
--
Embrace today... its all we got.
 |
| Finally... the future is the present |
sp'weekly1b
Summary
So... we're set to open a little higher, as the underlying momentum increasingly swings back toward the equity bulls.
The market only has to ride through the next ECB and FOMC announcements... and if any daily closes in the 2070s... it will be a straight run into the 2100s.
*notable early weakness: oil, -1.4%.. ahead of the latest EIA report.
TWTR, -5.0% in the $29s.
-
Doomer chart, Hunter with Merk
--
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan: +1.9% @ 18554
China: hit a new cycle high of 3447, but cooled rapidly in the afternoon session, settling -3.1% @ 3320. This should be somewhat concerning to the bulls... who need to re-take 3400 again this week.
--
Embrace today... its all we got.
China manages a close in the 3400s
Many won't have noticed (nor care), that with the Shanghai comp' seeing a net daily gain of 1.1% @ 3425, it was a rather important day in the Chinese equity market. Next target for the communistic bulls will be a break above the monthly 10MA (3694).
China, daily
China, monthly
Summary
Suffice to add... the current net monthly gain of 12.2% is the biggest gain since April. If October closes anywhere in the 3400s or higher.. it will bode for further upside.. at least to the 3650/3750 zone.
US equity bears should be extremely mindful that if China has seen a key floor.. it will bode for the sp'2100s.. .and new historic highs (at least in some indexes) before year end .
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see the latest EIA oil report.
--
Goodnight from London
China, daily
China, monthly
Summary
Suffice to add... the current net monthly gain of 12.2% is the biggest gain since April. If October closes anywhere in the 3400s or higher.. it will bode for further upside.. at least to the 3650/3750 zone.
US equity bears should be extremely mindful that if China has seen a key floor.. it will bode for the sp'2100s.. .and new historic highs (at least in some indexes) before year end .
--
Looking ahead
Wed' will see the latest EIA oil report.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2030 (intra
high 2039). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1%
respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside, with all
indexes set to test their respective 200dmas.
sp'daily5
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
It is notable that the Nasdaq is now stuck at the 200dma.
Broadly though, if sp'2050/60s within the next 2-6 trading days.. the Nasdaq will be trading above the 200dma.. and that will bode for straight up moves in other indexes.
--
a little more later...
sp'daily5
Nasdaq comp'
Summary
It is notable that the Nasdaq is now stuck at the 200dma.
Broadly though, if sp'2050/60s within the next 2-6 trading days.. the Nasdaq will be trading above the 200dma.. and that will bode for straight up moves in other indexes.
--
a little more later...
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