VIX cools into the weekend

Despite the broader equity market settling moderately lower into the weekly close, the VIX settled -2.7% @ 13.40 (intra high 14.58). Near term outlook is for the sp'2040s, which should equate to VIX 16/17s. The big 20 threshold looks out of range in the current cycle.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*a net weekly gain of 10.6%
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The closing hour saw the usual 'whack the VIX into the weekend' action... as equities managed to claw back above the 200dma.

Despite the net daily decline, the VIX does look set for higher levels early next week, as the Dow is set for the 17000 threshold.. along with sp'2040s.

*I hold long-VIX across the weekend.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly weak, sp -5pts @ 2077. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued downside to Dow 17000, along with sp'2040s, and that should equate to VIX in the 16/17s. From there.. a bounce looks highly probable.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour certainly favoured the bulls, but still... it does little to negate the repeated rally failures this week.

Today saw a lower high.. and a lower low.. and that sure ain't bullish.
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... and another stomach churning week comes to a close.

Unquestionably, a week for the equity bears, despite repeated attempts by the bull maniacs to push higher.

Frankly, I'm tired.. and I shall leave it at that.

Have a good weekend

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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week.

3pm update - net weekly declines

All US indexes are set for rather significant net weekly declines. With huge technical breaks all over the place, the near/mid term picture into Sept/Oct' is increasingly clear. Regardless of the exact close, it has been a week of repeated failed rally attempts by the bull maniacs.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to note, a week where the market kept trying to rally... and failed.

In theory, there should be at least another wave lower in the closing hour.

I'd like to see a weekly close <sp'2070... but considering we were trading 2112 on Wednesday, I'll settle for anything right now.

*I will hold long-VIX and short-INTC across the weekend... seeking better exits.

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back at the close

2pm update - sunshine into the weekend

US equities remain broadly weak, with the (not so mighty) Dow set for a seventh consecutive net daily decline, but even more importantly.. a very bearish net weekly decline of around -2%. The 17000 threshold remains an obvious target for early next week.. at which point we're prone for a bounce.


Dow'weekly1b

VIX'daily2

Summary

*second consecutive green candle on the VIX... looks fine into next week.
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The Dow looks real ugly... as also reflected on the monthly cycle which has flashed a few warnings sign this week.
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notable weakness: AA -3.5%.. seemingly headed for the 8s.. or 7s.

CNX -6%... coal miners continue to implode.

NFLX -2.6%...  You know the market is struggling when even the hyper-momo stocks are negative.

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London city is pretty good today.....

Blue bearish skies... into the weekly close :)

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back at 3pm

1pm update - holding under the 200dma

US equities remain broadly weak, with the sp'500 sustainably trading under the key 200dma. A daily/weekly close <2073 would be a bonus to the equity bears... along with VIX >14.50. The weekly/monthly cycles continue to give clarity to the mid term outlook across September/early Oct'.


Dow, daily

VIX'weekly'2

Summary

*the dow is set for the 7th consecutive net daily decline... something we've not seen since the collapse wave of July/Aug 2011.

Bonus fact... the Dow has declined 12 of the last 14 trading days.
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Re: VIX.  Volatility remains subdued. The bigger weekly cycle is offering much higher levels in the weeks ahead, with sustained action in the 20s. For me, the only issue is whether we'll see 'days' in the 30s.

*I remain long VIX, and as things are, I'm content to hold long across the weekend, I'm seeking a better exit in the 16/17s.

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back at 2pm

12pm update - the 200dma FAILS

US equities remain moderately weak, but with another micro cycle lower, the key 200dma of sp'2073 has been decisively broken. Equity bears should now been seeking a weekly close <2070.. along with VIX 14/15s. USD has cooled from earlier highs, -0.2% in the DXY 97.50s.


sp'daily5

VIX'60min

Summary

*baby bull flag on the VIX hourly cycle... has been confirmed. A daily close >14.50 would be useful, and offer 15/17 zone next Monday.. with sp'2040s.
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So.. we've taken out a key MA in a leading index... although the Dow has been warning of that all week.

I'm well aware some out there are STILL seeking new index highs in the weeks ahead. Personally, with the Trans/Dow/NYSE comp'... broken... I find such a notion... bizarre.

Targets:  Dow 17000, sp'2040s, with VIX 16/17
-

notable weakness: NFLX -3%

DISCA -1.9%.. resuming the down trend
coal miners, CNX -4%

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time to see how twitchy the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are...

11am update - remaining weak

US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp' having tested.. and so far held, the key 200dma @ 2073. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles continue to bode for lower levels. For now, VIX is failing to show any upside power, but price structure does favour the equity bears into next week.


sp'daily5

VIX'60min

Summary

*note the baby bull flag on the VIX hourly. A break this afternoon >14.50 would be significant...
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So, a lot of chop.. on the weak side, but nothing significant yet for the bears.

As things are... all indexes are set for rather bearish net weekly declines.. which certainly keeps the trend to the downside next week.

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notable strength: bonds, TLT +0.7% in the $123.60s. A weekly close in the 124s would be a good sign for the equity bears.

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time for an early lunch


11.15am.. BREAK BREAK BREAK....    sp'2072...  with VIX 14s.

*I see some still touting new index highs....      kinda bizarre.

10am update - opening chop

US equities are seeing some moderate chop as the market is battling to hold the 200dma of sp'2073. A break <2070 would be a major bearish signal, and suggest further downside to the July 8th low of 2044. Broadly though, the weekly/monthly cycles are already crystal clear of where we are headed.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

... long day ahead....

The cheerleaders on clown finance TV are going to be real upset later today if we're sustainably trading <2070... with the Dow lower for the 7th day

I see little reason why the market won't break lower today. After all, the bull maniacs have seen THREE failed rallies this week... with key breaks in a great many stocks.. not least AAPL and DIS.

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Eyes on bonds....

TLT, weekly

A weekly close in the 123s. or even 124s would continue a climb that will likely last into late Sept/early Oct... and that has bearish implications for equities.
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10.18am.. Price structure on the VIX hourly remains a clear bull flag.. bodes for sig' equity downside today... with a break <2070.


10.26am.... market unravelling... close to a key break.

As noted... eyes on the VIX.... price structure is highly suggestive the equity bears will take full control from here.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are broadly flat ahead of the jobs data, we're set to open around 2083. Equity bears just need an intraday move of sp -12pts to 2071 to break the 200dma.. which will open the door to a weekly close in the 2060s.. or even 50s. That should equate to VIX 15/16s.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly

Summary

 *it would be really useful for the equity bears to break below last weeks low of sp'2063.
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A big day is ahead. We're currently net lower on the week by around 1% for the sp'500. A weekly close <2070 would make for a very bearish close, and offer further clarity that the market has maxed out for the summer, if not the year.

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Overnight China action:  Broad upside across the day, settling +2.3% @ 3744. There remains a high risk the PBOC will cut rates this Sunday.
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standing by for the jobs data (due 8.30am EST)................


8.31am net gains: 215k, headline jobless rate: 5.3%. . inline.

Indexes:  moderate weakness, sp -3pts... 2080.

Eyes to the USD and bonds....

USD +0.3% DXY 98.10s....
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Now.. its merely a case of whether we can break <sp'2072 today....
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8.34am.. with stronger USD.. commodities under pressure,  Gold -$4... with Oil -0.7%


8.40am.. sp -5pts.. 2078... just 6pts away from a clear break..  Of course.... the Dow/Trans... well below such equivalent levels.


KEY signal...  bonds just jumped... TLT +0.3% in the $123s... a break into the 124s today would likely equate to sp'2060s.

Bonds look set for broad upside into early Oct'... and that sure isn't going to help equities.
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8.56am... micro jump... sp +2pts... 2085.  Hmmm

USD remains +0.4%  98.20s.... underlying downward pressure on commodities....increases.


9.00am.. sp +5pts... 2088...

Arguably... another opening minor gain... set to fail....

For those not already long VIX... its a viable entry this morning....  unless of course you think we're headed to new highs into Sept/Oct.

.. but then... what about the technical breaks in AAPL... DIS, INTC.... etc ?
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9.05am.. So... mixed chop in pre-market.... but we have some underlying key moves in the USD.. and bonds. Both are supportive of the bearish equity/commodity case.

USD in the 98s... it does bode for a key break above the giant DXY 100 threshold... and onward to the 120s.

I myself am still churning on 'how the hell can equities rebound after October.. if USD is broadly climbing across 2016'.
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9.17am. Not surprisingly, the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are getting twitchy a viable seventh consecutive net daily decline for the Dow.. not seen since the mini crash wave of July/Aug 2011.

.. sp +1pt... set to open 2084.

Eyes on TLT +0.5% in the $123.40s... set to break new cycle highs.
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9.38am.. battling it out... a few are clearly buying on support.. now at 2075.

Broadly..  the weekly/monthly cycles are clear...

*opening VIX reversal candle.

The Dow monthly is ugly

The Dow saw a sixth consecutive net daily decline, settling -120pts (0.7%) @ 17419, the lowest level since Feb 3rd. The bigger monthly cycle looks conclusively maxed out, with viable downside to the 16500/000 zone by early October.


Dow' monthly2

Dow'weekly1b - H/S scenario

Summary

*a notable red candle on the monthly 'rainbow' chart... the first since Sept'2011.
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With severe technical breaks in stocks like AAPL and DIS, the Dow is a broken index, and looks headed for the 17000 threshold in the immediate term.

Price structure on the weekly cycle is a clear H/S formation, and is highly suggestive of the 17000 threshold before first opportunity of a bounce. Much lower levels look due across the next two months.
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Looking ahead

Friday will center around the monthly jobs report. Mr Market is expecting net gains of 212k, with a headline jobless rate of 5.3%. Frankly, 212k looks set to be easily surpassed, 250/275 seems very viable, and would probably result in case of 'good news is bad news'.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle index

US equities closed broadly weak, sp -16pts @ 2083 (intra low 2075). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for a key break of the 200dma (2072), which should offer further downside to the 2050/40s.


sp'daily5

Dow

R2K

Summary

*a notable sixth consecutive net daily decline for the Dow.
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Little to add.

The Wed' rally... with the failed spike, was confirmed with today's downside. Lower levels look due in the immediate term.

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a little more later...