Closing Brief

The main indexes continued the post QE-taper rally, with the sp +9pts @ 1828. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.9% respectively. A quiet week ahead, and one which will likely see further upside into year end..and beyond.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

With the taper uncertainty out of the way, there is simply nothing to stop the current rally..which looks set to continue for at least another 2-3 weeks into mid January.

For me, the only issue is whether it drags on until late January..or early Feb.

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*I'll skip the usual VIX and Daily index cycle updates...I'm tired.

I might post something later on the Fed...after all, the charter signing was 100yrs ago today.
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**will post an update on the shipping stocks...on my Fair Value' page. They all saw a rather strong closing hour.

3pm update - 1830s to spite the bears?

Mr Market is fighting hard to hold the moderate gains, and a daily close in the sp'1830s is still viable. Regardless of the close though, the broader trend remains strongly to the upside. Metals and Oil are a touch weak.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add...on what is a rather quiet day.
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*notable strength in the shippers - DRYS, DSX, NAT... as expected.

With the BDI set for the 3000s in early 2014..shippers all look set to explode..at least for a few weeks.

DRYS, weekly

A break of $4, will open the door to a fast move to either 5..or 6. 
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3.21pm.. Ford is continuing to weaken...the low 14s look an easy target within 7-10 trading days.

Renewed strength post Jan' earnings...probable.
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3.30pm..could argue for a small bull flag on the 15/60min cycles...certainly pointing to the 1830s by the 1pm close tomorrow.

2pm update - minor afternoon chop

A micro pull back, with the smaller 15/60min index cycles offering a chance to slip to 1824/22..before renewed upside into the Christmas eve early close. VIX remains weak, -3.4% in the low 13s. The momo stocks remain strong, with gains of 4-5% for FB and the TWTR.


sp'60min

Summary

Without getting lost in the minor noise..what is clear on the hourly chart...

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle has already reset 50% - whilst prices have managed to keep rising, and considering the general outlook, we should see some further strength later this week.
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Right now, the only issue is whether we close this week in the 1830s...or the 40s.

1pm update - cruising into the sp'1830s

US equities continue to climb, with the sp'500 making a play for a daily close in the 1830s. VIX is naturally weak, and now looks set for a close in the 12s. It remains a market that is fearless into early 2014.


sp'weekly'8

Summary

Mr Market remains very pleased with itself...just comfortably battling higher.

Notable strength in most momo stocks, FB and TWTR, both +5%.
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VIX update from Mr T



stay tuned!

12pm update - volatility melting into Christmas

With just two days until Santa delivers, the VIX is naturally melting lower..and looks set for the 12s. A year end close in the 11s..even 10s is possible if Mr Market gets over excited at 'better than expected' holiday sales.


VIX'daily3

Summary

As expected, we're just seeing the VIX slip lower. Unlike last year when the market was getting real twitchy about the budget, there is nothing in the immediate term.

What will be interesting is how we close the year. Considering the setup, VIX 11s by Dec'31 wouldn't surprise me. Hell, even the 10s..if we can claw into the sp'1840/50s.
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Not many are talking about it lately, but NFLX is comfortably cruising higher..after that little whipsaw at the most recent earnings.

The $400s look a given...the only issue is whether $500s are viable by late spring..before the next smack down for the broader market.

11am update - momo stocks are strong

Whilst the main market holds moderate gains, there is some notable strength in the momo stocks. FB +4% in the $57s, TWTR +3% in the $62s. Metals and Oil are seeing minor chop. VIX is naturally weak, -3% in the low 13s.


FB, daily

TWTR, daily

Summary

Anyone want to dare short either of those?

I didn't think so. Frankly, only a maniac would be short anything right now..with Santa set to deliver in just two days.
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*pretty stormy here in the capital...the shoppers are getting whipsawed around by the strong winds and heavy rains.

Bullish....winter clothing.

10am update - battling higher

The main market opens moderately higher, with the sp' almost in the 1830s. There is nothing to stop the post QE-taper rally..at least until mid/late January. Metals are seeing minor chop, Gold -$4. VIX -3% in the low 13s.


sp'daily5

Summary

Why would anyone consider shorting this?

We're in Christmas week..volatility will surely remain low for another few weeks, and before people realise it, we could even be making a play for the 1900s..before the next multi-week drop.
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Notable mover: AAPL

The $600s look an easy target early next year. The only issue I am wondering is when we'll see a test of the historic high in the low $700s.

*momo stocks are catching a bid...TWTR in the low $60s.... FB looks set to follow within a week or two.
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Pre-Market Brief

Good morning..and welcome to Christmas week!  Futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open around 1828..yet another historic new high. Metals are a touch higher. A quiet week..and short week ahead in market land.


sp'weekly'8

Summary

Well, it looks like we'll see the 1830s this morning. A weekly close in the 1840s is very probable..next week..if not even this week.
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There is no sig' QE until next year..not that it matters in my view right now.
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Notable early movers: AAPL +3.3%.   RIG +1.0%


9.15am.. market looks set to hold gains..with a probable close in the low 1830s. Little reason why the VIX won't close this week in the 12s.

After all...nothing looming until at least late Jan/early Feb.