Thursday 13 November 2014

Volatility pushing higher

Whilst US equities saw minor weakness in the latter half of the day, the VIX battled upward, settling +5.9% @ 13.79.  Near term outlook is for an equity retrace - sp'1980/50, which should equate to VIX 18/20s.



*the third consecutive net daily gain (if minor), the best run since early October.

VIX remains crushed from the mid October high, but should at least get a chance at testing the 20 threshold within the next week or two.

more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed somewhat weak, but having broken new historic highs in the morning. The sp'500 settled +1pts @ 2039 (intra high 2046). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.9% respectively.



*the closing hour was actually pretty exciting.. with dramatic news that Halliburton is looking to take over Baker Hughes (BHI).

It was pretty funny to hear almost literal screaming on the trading floor, as the stock reopened.. and soared. How many Oil/gas driller bears were covering BHI at ANY costs?

BHI, daily

A FULL set of updates across the evening, to wrap up the day.

3pm update - a retrace is likely underway

Considering the reversal from the morning high of sp'2046, and the ongoing price action, it would seem a retrace is finally underway. VIX is highly supportive of such an outlook, +8% in the 14s. Commodities remain especially weak, with metals turning negative.



Another micro wave to the upside in equities, but still... VIX is holding moderate gains, and clearly outside of the broader down trend that began in mid October.

Notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -5.4%.. set to lose the $10s again, but more on those after the close.

TWTR.. in trouble...

set to lose the $40s... target is $30

3.08pm.. Anyone watching CNBC? Whats their game this afternoon? We got Kelly Evans looking like she is almost about to cry about the 'commodity bubble bursting'.

WTF? Seriously? Who is writing the script for the clowns this afternoon? Now we're meant to believe there was a commodity bubble recently? lol

I'd refer anyone to a CRB chart from 2009-2014.

3.21pm...  I'm tired... there is a lot of stuff going on, but really.. the bigger issue right now is in commodities, and that is tied to a broadly rising USD.

Oil is now $74s... set for 65/60... by the spring...

Gold $1000.. if not 900s... by summer 2015.

For those interested in miner/energy stocks... another few months.. and we might have a key floor... before the first real price surge since late 2010.

3.25pm.. BBRY surging 12%... with Chen on clown TV... hmm

3.37pm.. TWTR loses the $40s.... target is $30.  

3.52pm.. Screaming on the trading floor.. as Halliburton is now seeking Baker Hughes...

Other drillers soaring.... RIG, SDRl, DO

2pm update - the day the market turned red

US equities continue to weaken, lead lower by the R2K, -0.8%. The sp'500 has swung from 2046 to 2030... a daily close in the 2020s would be highly suggestive a retrace is now underway. VIX is confirming the equity weakness, +8% in the 14s.

The shock.. the horror... indexes turn red!



*VIX and R2K, are the most bearish aspects right now, and both are offering the first real hint that a retrace is finally underway.

Notable weakness in the energy sector, not least with Oil -1.9%, and Nat' gas -3.4%.

Oil/gas drillers remain a mess,  RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -3.7%

TWTR having problems... -3.7% in the $40s. If 39s... it bodes for a retest of the summer low... $30. I guess the market wants the CEO out!

12pm update - late morning reversal

US equities have started to weaken, lead lower by the R2K, -0.7%. The sp'500 has swung from a new historic high of 2046 to 2035. VIX is offering the upper teens before month end, +3% in the mid 13s. Oil remains very weak, -1.8%

R2K, daily



If the R2K can break the daily 10MA of 1174.. it would be highly suggestive that a moderate retrace is finally underway. If so.. it will likely take a good 3-5 days to complete... so we're looking at the middle of next week.. at the earliest.

VIX update from Mr T.

back at 2pm... unless something more dynamic happens.

1.40pm... VIX +8%.. with sp'2030... ohh the humanity. Someone needs to call the BoJ !

11am update - building gains

US equities break the usual trio of new historic highs.. in the Dow, Sp'500, and now also the Trans (9115). VIX has turned red. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$2. Energy remains very weak, Oil -1.5%, whilst Nat' gas -0.7%

Dow, daily


There appears a near complete absence of anyone who wants to sell. No doubt.. the BoJ are out there buying... would be useful to know just how much they are buying each day.

Notable weakness, SDRL, -2.6% @ $20.79... set to lose the $20s... broader target is $12.

11.17am... Market reversal underway... lead by weakness in the R2K

VIX +3%...  but really, there is serious weakness in energy stocks.... many are -3%

10am update - opening minor gains

Equities open a little higher, with new historic highs on the Dow and sp'500 (2044). VIX however remains slightly positive. Metals open moderately higher, but look extremely vulnerable. Oil is on the slide, -1.1%



There is little to add.

However, Yellen is due to speak at a Fed-ECB conference this lunch time (12.45pm or so), I'm not sure if clown finance TV will be covering it live.

Notable opening reversal in the miners..

GDX, 60min

A black-fail candle to start the day... and has already turned briefly red. I refer anyone to Oct'28th open.. two days later...major collapse of $3.

Interesting day ahead....

10.08am.. Oil really weak now... -1.8%.... metals set to turn red.....

Despite new index highs.. equity market looks set for a daily red close... 

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2040. Metals are trying to bounce again, Gold +$4. Energy prices remain weak, Nat' gas -0.5%, whilst Oil is -0.7%.



Little to add.

Barring new highs (although it sure won't take much)... market looks vulnerable to a retrace, not that I have any intention to get involved in indexes for remainder of the year.

Equity bears should be looking to the VIX, with 14s as the first sign.

Early movers

SDRL -1.5%...with a long way down to go.
JCP -6.7%, post earnings.. which on first look were still lousy.

Good wishes for Thursday trading!

Daily Wrap

Another relatively dull day for the US equity market, the one difference being new historic highs were not attained. Near term outlook is for a retrace back under the giant sp'2000 threshold, probably flooring somewhere in the 1980/50 zone.

sp'daily3 - fib levels


Very little to add. It would seem there is a fair chance that 2041 was a short term top. If so.. there would seem a high chance of at least a 3% retrace.. down to the 1980/70s... if not (briefly) the 1950s.

On no basis though, can I see a break under the very important sp'1900 threshold.

Closing update from Riley.. with the Pitbull

*a margin requirement of $27 million? Urghhhh

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs data, along with the Nat' gas report. There are a number of Fed officials speaking, notably, the Yellen, at some Fed-ECB conference.

Bankster bashing

There continue to be sporadic fines for the UK banks.. it would seem (not that I'm surprised) they have been rigging just about everything, along with regularly screwing over their own clients. In many ways, you got to give them credit for being so bold, lol

See the following by UK C4 reporter... Mason

The reputation of all those involved in high level banking was of course seriously tarnished with the bail outs from the last crisis. Considering the ongoing revelations, I don't see many having any respect for those involved in financial services.

When the next financial crisis hits (can't be more than 2-3 years away), there won't likely be any bail outs, but instead... an even worse scenario of bail ins. So long as Federal 'insurance' is legally enforced.. the average investor/saver has not a hope of escaping the bill to cover others 'failed financial bets'. I have no hope it will change any time soon.

Goodnight from London