Thursday 27 December 2018

Thursday retracement

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +21pts (0.9%) at 2488 intra low 2397). Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow +1.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.5% at 29.96. Near term outlook offers upside of another 1.5-2.0%.




After the Wednesday hyper gains, a retracement of some degree was to be expected. Thursdays inherently tend to favour the bears, and equities opened sig' lower, and broadly cooled into the mid afternoon. There was a very natural floor around 2.30pm, and the market then hyper-ramped into the close. The daily close bodes for further upside on Friday, possibly stretching into early New Years Eve.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX seeing the 33s, but with the equity rebound, settling in the 29s. Further cooling to the 26/25s appears probable.

Bonus chart: Germany

With just two trading days left of the year (I'd imagine the German market is open on Monday), the DAX is lower for a fifth consecutive month, currently -7.8% at 10381. Psy'10k support, and then 8k. Implications for rest of the European markets in 2019, and to some degree... the US.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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