With US equities breaking a new cycle high for the eighth consecutive day, the VIX remained under pressure, settling +2.5% @ 12.25 (intra low 11.71). Near term outlook offers a moderate equity retrace, back to the sp'2100 threshold.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
A day of minor chop. Opening black-fail candle... with a new cycle low of 11.71, but then a moderate rally into the close as equities cooled a little.
Broadly.. things really don't get remotely interesting until VIX can attain a daily close in the 14s. That will open the door to a brief foray into the 15/16 gap zone.
From there (and that assume we even get that high)... VIX will likely cool into early August.
VIX 20s look unlikely until the latter half of August.
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 2128 (intra high 2132). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, but with price action as it is, even the sp'2100 threshold looks a stretch. Regardless, broader upside into August.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour was notably weak, with a clear break of short term rising trend.
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Little to add.. on what was a very tedious and dull Monday..aside from the action in the precious metals.. and the
related mining stocks.
A retrace to sp'2100 looks due. Whether the decline can fill the lower gap of sp'2080... very difficult to say. Bears could do with some 'spooky news' from Greece.
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*I remain short the market via a small block of VIX, seeking the 15s... but that won't be easy.. unless sp'2090/85.
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US equities remain in algo-bot melt mode, with the sp +4pts, having earlier hit 2132.. a mere 0.1% from a new historic high. VIX remains extremely subdued, +1% @ 12.06. Metals and Oil are both very weak, as King dollar looks vulnerable to breaking into the DXY 100s by late summer.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*earnings at the close... IBM
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Little to add.. on what has been a pretty tedious day.
I can only hope we'll see some more dynamic price action as the week proceeds!
notable weakness, Gold/Silver miners. GDX -9.1%... utter sector devastation... second only to the coal miners.
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US equities break a new cycle high of sp'2131, as it remains somewhat a case of algo-bot melt. Even a retrace to the 2100 threshold will now require a 1.5% down swing. Metals are unable to see any kind of intraday bounce, Gold -$25, with Silver -0.5%. Oil is increasingly weak, -1.5%
sp'60min
USO, daily
Summary
*With Gold under the Nov' 2014 low of $1130, and Oil in imminent danger of losing the key $50 threshold, commodities sure are a problem. Resource/energy stocks are naturally very weak, despite the broader market.
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Well, a pretty dull day overall.. aside from the action in the precious metals/miners.
notable weakness: AA -1.9%, set to lose the $10 threshold.. the low 9s look a pretty easy target by early Oct.
Whilst the headline indexes - sp'500/Dow/Nasdaq, are holding minor gains, the two indexes that often lead the market lower (if only for a retrace!) - Trans/R2K, are both moderately lower. Metals and Oil remain very weak.
Trans'daily
R2K, daily
Summary
Little to add.
Equity bears could do with the Dow/SP' closing flat/marginally negative... along with VIX 12s.
notable weakness: Copper miners, FCX/TCK, both lower by around -4.5%
US equities break a fractional new cycle high of sp'2129, with VIX cooling to 11.71. From a pure cyclical perspective, a retrace remains due. Metals remain exceptionally weak, Gold -$23, whilst Silver has managed to turn a touch positive. Oil is increasingly weak, -0.9%
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Hmm, not much to add.
On any 'fair basis', this market needs a retrace, at least to the sp'2100 threshold... but that would likely only equate to VIX 14s.
If we're to fill the lower end of the primary VIX gap of 15/16s... we'll need at least sp'2090/85, and right now, that is clearly out of range until late Wednesday.
Whilst equities remain stuck in the sp'2120s - with VIX 12s, the real action remains in the precious metals market. Gold -$27, with Silver -0.6%. The miner ETF of GDX continues to implode, -7.9% in the $14.20s.. the 12/10s look due.
Lets take a look at Gold and the miners.. but on the bigger monthly cycles...
GLD, monthly'2
GDX, monthly
Summary
The horror is indeed clear.. especially seen in the related mining stocks, most of which are -85/90% since 2011.
If you assume Gold $1000... do the math.... it will knock another 25% or so off most miners.
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Aside from the mining stocks...notable weakness: DISCA -3.9%
CHK -2.4%, with Nat' gas -2.9%
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strength: AAPL +1.8% in the $131s., FB +2%.. as the momo chasers are seeking the big $100 threshold.
Whilst US equities open with some moderate chop, the more notable action is in precious metals. Gold has decisively taken out the Nov' 2014 low, currently -$24, with Silver -0.6%. The related miners are naturally getting destroyed, with the miner ETF of GDX -5.7%... well below the crash low of Oct'2008.
GLD, daily
GDX,daily
Summary
*it is too hard to resist to begin the day with a little bash against the gold bugs, who remain the most twisted group of investors (and I use the term loosely).
Typically, the gold bug has been buying ALL the way down from the $1900s.. and has a portfolio consisting almost entirely of mining stocks. Most of the latter have lost 85/90% since the 2011 high.
No doubt.. some of the bugs will be buying today... all I shall say is... good luck with that.
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As for equities... market remains looking tired... we're due a retrace. A moderate net daily decline would seem reasonable to target.. and that would set up increasing weakness across tomorrow and Wednesday.
VIX'daily3
Prime exit zone remains the 15/16s, but certainly.. the big 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.
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Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 2128. USD continues to battle higher, +0.1% at DXY 98.00. Metals have seen an overnight collapse, with Gold hitting a new cycle low of $1086, the lowest level since March 2010. Oil is a little weak, -0.2%.
sp'60min
Gold, monthly'2, with fibs
Summary
*I could drone on about the precious metals for pages and pages... suffice to say... original targets remain on track. Gold to $1000.. maybe 900/875, as a capitulation low.. along with Silver 12/10. Such levels have dire implications for the related mining stocks.
Pre-market, miner ETF of GDX -3%.. in the $14.90s... target is 12/10... within a few months.
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As for equities, we now have two downside gaps. Clearly, the sp'2080 gap is a long way down.. and we might simply not get down that low for another month or two.
The bigger weekly cycle will have resistance around 2140/45 from today onward, given another month.... a multi-month peak around 2170/90 zone looks viable.
Best guess.. a retrace this week.. before resuming higher.
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*I remain long VIX (from 12.92).. seeking the 15/16s. That does not seem overly bold a target, considering the broader weekly chart which remains warning of real trouble in the late summer.
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Update from Mr C...
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Fitts
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Overnight China action: volatility continues to cool, with Monday seeing some relatively moderate chop, settling +0.9% @ 3992. Regardless of any weakness this week, a move to around 4300/500 seems due before the next down wave.
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notable early movers.. MS, +3.5% on better than expected earnings. Like other financials, MS is no doubt hoping to dramatically increase margins if the fed will finally start to raise rates before year end.
EBAY -58% @ $27... but then... its officially split from Paypal (PYPL) today!
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