Tuesday 10 April 2018

The swings continue

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +43pts (1.7%) at 2656. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by +1.1% and +1.9% respectively. VIX settled -6.0% at 20.47. Near term outlook threatens another wave lower, but the 200dma (sp'2595) looks secure.




The powerful equity swings continue, with today seeing equities open sig' higher. The market climbed to 2662 in the 11am hour, then briefly fell to 2635 on another sporadic Cohen-related news headline. There was a fair amount of chop in the afternoon, but the market did manage a new intraday high of 2665, before some moderate cooling.

Meanwhile, it was a day of moderate chop for the VIX, seeing an opening reversal, but then melting lower in the afternoon. Its notable that despite significant net equity gains, the VIX still managed a close above the key 20 threshold. 

Near term outlook offers another cooling wave, perhaps as low as around the sp'2600 threshold. However, unless VIX can break >26, with sp' seeing a close under the 200dma, the broader outlook still leans to the bulls. Earnings are set to start pouring in, and those will be a reminder that the US economy is far from recession.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London

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