It was notable today that despite the sp-42pts in the afternoon, the VIX only showed relatively moderate gains (intra high 22.19), settling +10.0% @ 21.98. Near term outlook offers threat of 23/24s - along with sp'1890/80s, before renewed equity upside next week to the sp'1970s, which should equate to VIX 18/17s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffce to add, lower VIX levels look due into next week, before the equity bears have any realistic hope of sustained downside.
If we see the sp'1970s, that should equate to VIX 18/17s.. whether late next week, or in opex week.
US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -36pts @ 1903 (intra low 1897). The two leaders -Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.9% and -2.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a moderate bounce, before a brief foray to 1890/80 zone... and then pushing back upward to the 1970s next week.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a new intra low of 1897, but offering a short term floor..
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Today opened weak, and it was one of those days where the market was entirely unable to bounce.
Since the March 2009 low, its still pretty unusual to see such a day.
The sp'500 is offering a short term floor of 1900, with a viable bounce into 'ADP jobs' Wednesday. It would seem we'll see a brief foray into the 1890/80s on Thurs/Friday, before reversing powerfully back upward next week. Broadly, the 1970s still look on track, along with VIX 18/17s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Well, no doubt a few will be screaming for a straight run to break the Jan'20th low of sp'1812, but that seems extremely unlikely.
The bigger weekly cycles continue to favour the equity bulls - at least in terms of a few more weeks of chop... NOT sustained action >2K.
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US equities break another intraday low, to sp'1904, with VIX +8% in the 21.70s. Despite the very significant declines, there is zero sign that the market is in trouble of unravelling. Indeed, the the 1900 threshold is next key support.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Another few weeks of day to day swings like these, is really going to confuse many.
Most notable today remains the VIX, which is still failing to show any real upside power.. stuck in the 21s.. and a very long way below the Jan'20th high of the 32s.
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notable weakness...
CHK -6%
FCX -8%
RIG -8%, SDRL -8%
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strength: TVIX +11% in the $9.20s.. but that is a long way below the $12.90s high from 2 weeks ago.
US equities remain significantly lower, with a new intra low of sp'1904. It remains notable that the VIX remains relatively subdued, higher by just 7% in the 21s. It would seem the market is going to trade in this manner for a fair few weeks.. and likely convince the mainstream that sp'1812 is a key low.
sp'weekly'X2
VIX'daily3
Summary
*all things considered, the VIX sure isn't warning of any serious trouble.
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I'm putting together a few new charts, not least to focus more on the weekly candles across the next few months.
Cyclically.. we're clearly on the low side.. hence I'm in no hurry to short (to me, 1970s would be acceptable). Market needs to burn off the oversold situation via at least 4-5 weeks of chop/churn.
A break and consistent hold above the weekly 10MA looks difficult.
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notable weakness, TSLA, daily
Like F and RACE today, TSLA is a real mess, back to levels from spring 2015.
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US equities remain broadly weak, but are naturally battling to claw upward from the morning low of sp'1909 (with VIX 21.99). USD is flat. Gold -$5, with Silver -0.5%. Energy prices remain under severe pressure.. as spring is coming, Nat' gas -6.5%, with WTIC Oil -3.2% in the $30s.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add.
Unlike yesterday, I don't expect the indexes to turn green... certainly not >sp'1947.
Instead, a net daily decline, eventually resuming upward to the 1970s.
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notable weakness...
RACE, - Ferrari, daily
First, note the IPO price of $52. The debut daily candle was of the classic black-fail type. The stock is now seeing further weakness on disappointing earnings.. and the outlook ain't so positive.
Due to being a newly listed stock, there are no real technicals to trade by. The only real levels are of the psychological type, $35, 30, 25, 20.. etc.
If the market does get smashed to at least the sp'1700/1600s, then RACE will surely end up in the 25/20 zone.
**Ford and Tesla aren't doing so great either today, both lower by over -4%.
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US equities are significantly weak, having seen a 50% retrace of the
bounce-wave from sp'2081/1812. At least 2-3 days of weakness/chop seem
due, before first opportunity of the 1970s next week. Energy prices
continue to cause problems, with Nat' gas -6.3% and WTIC Oil -3.3%.
sp'60min
Summary
Much like yesterday, we'll likely see some degree of latter day recovery, although anything >1947 looks out of range until next week.
VIX is +7%, but we're only in the 21s. Sub 20 looks probable in the near term.
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notable weakness...
BAC, daily
As Q4 and Q1'2016 GDP get regularly downgraded, the threat of a second rate rise has effectively vapourised. The financials are naturally resuming lower. Next big support for BAC is not until the psy' level of $10.00.. and that is around 30% lower.
US equities are significantly weak, having seen a 50% retrace of the bounce-wave from sp'2081/1812. At least 2-3 days of weakness/chop seem due, before first opportunity of the 1970s next week. Energy prices continue to cause problems, with Nat' gas -6.4% and WTIC Oil -4.3%.
sp'60min
sp'daily5b
Summary
So.... its much like yesterday, somewhat appropriately.
9/10 days UP from sp'1812, at least 2-3 down.. and then another push higher into mid/late next week - when the Yellen appears.
The 1970s remain on track, and right now, I see zero reason to be involved.
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -17pts , we're set to open at 1922. USD is -0.1% in the DXY 98.90s. Gold -$4. Oil is again under major pressure, -3.0%, back in the $30s.
sp'60min
Summary
The market has seen an effective 50% retrace of the wave from 2081/1812, having climbed across 9-10 days.
It would seem we could now see at least 2-3 days of chop before resuming higher into next week, when the 1970s look viable.
Broadly, things look on track... not least on the far more important bigger weekly/monthly cycles.
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early movers...
GOOG +5%, on clearly good earnings
CHK, -3%, RIG -3%, SDRL -6%
TWTR -3%
TVIX +5%, certainly far stronger than yesterday, relative to the current equity declines
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Overnight action..
Japan -0.6%
China: +2.3% @ 2749
Germany: currently -1.2% in the 9600s. The 10K threshold looks out of range.
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It was a rather tedious day in US equity land, with the sp'500 swinging from a morning low of 1920 to 1947, settling -0.9pts @ 1939. The next opportunity for a major wave lower looks unlikely before March, which is a shame, considering there might just be twelve days left until the end of the world.
'The end of the world will be on February 14th in the year 2016'
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sp'weekly6
sp'monthly1b
Summary
re: weekly6 - the second blue candle, we'll likely get another 2-3 of these before chance of a rollover.
re: monthly1b - the second red candle, and the fourth of the last seven. Note the 10MA, having now declined to 2024. By the March open, the 10MA will be around 2K. Sustained action >2K looks extremely unlikely for many months.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday has vehicle sales data... but that is about it.
*Fed official George is speaking at 1pm
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As for twelve days left...
Its been almost 27 years since Elaine made her bold prediction in summer 1989 on the weekly show 'World of the Psychic'. We'll soon find out if she was right.
Until then, this is Permabear Doomster saying..........................
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -0.9pts @ 1939 (intra low 1920).
The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and -0.3% respectively. Near
term outlook is choppy, with the 1970s more viable next week. February
looks set for a great deal of chop/churn, with the next major wave lower
unlikely until March.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Suffice to add, a bit of a mixed day, but with a notable latter day recovery, the sp'500 having swung from 1920 to 1947, but settling fractionally lower at 1939.
Broadly, the market looks set to claw a little higher into next week. The sp'1970s look a reasonable target.
What does seem clear, sustained action >sp'2K looks extremely unlikely, as the giant monthly cycles are highly suggestive of much lower levels.
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a little more later.... on the END OF THE WORLD :)
