Thursday, 26 May 2016

Daily Wrap

US equities settled broadly higher for a second consecutive day, sp +14pts @ 2090 (intra high 2094). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. VIX remained in cooling mode, -3.6% @ 13.90. Near term outlook is extremely borderline, as the sp'2100 threshold remains major resistance.




So, a second day of equity gains, with the VIX continuing to cool from last week's high of 17.65.

With a three day holiday weekend approaching, price action will be leaning on the quieter side, and that will favour the equity bulls.

A move back above the key VIX 20 threshold looks inevitable in June, but then, are we only looking at a brief foray to the low/mid 20s, before renewed equity upside (to new historic highs) across the summer?


Market chatter from the Schiff

Three days left

With next Monday CLOSED in the US market for Memorial day, my attention is increasingly focused on how the month will settle.

sp'monthly2 - boll/Keltner

I highlight the above monthly chart as I see some people posting overly bearish downside targets for June.

As I often like to say... first things first.

First, the equity bears need to break last week's low of sp'2025, then the giant psy' level of 2K, and then show some downside power to the low 1900s.

Indeed, across June, the lower monthly bollinger will be around 1930/20s. Any initial break <1900 looks overly difficult.

The lower Keltner band will be offering first viable chance of the low 1800s in July.

...and of course, any break above sp'2134, with Dow >18351, would negate ALL bearish targets, and open up an entirely different outlook, the far more scary inflationary scenario.

Goodnight from London