VIX cools into the weekend

With equities closing broadly higher, the VIX ended the week in cooling mode, settling -6.9% @ 15.20.  Across the week, the VIX saw a minor net weekly gain of 1.1%. Broadly, volatility remains due to increase into the summer.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Broadly, despite the sp'500 declining from 2111 to a new multi-month low of 2025, the VIX remains broadly subdued, stuck in the mid/low teens.

The bigger weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to see a bullish cross before end month... and that does bode for a powerful increase in volatility into June.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly higher, sp +12pts @ 2052 (intra high 2058). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers another rollover, with the recent low of 2025 set to be tested. If that fails to hold... open air to 2000/1990s.. if not the H/S target of 1970/60s.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a little cooling to 2048.. as news of a White House 'lawn incident' gave the algo-bots an excuse for a nano scale brief drop.

The hourly 10MA notably held.
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.. and thus concludes another week.

Certainly, it was not the bearish end that some (yours truly included) were hoping for, but then... opex is often a frustrating day for equity bears.

In any case... equity bears did achieve a lower high this week.. and a lower low.

It has been somewhat bemusing to see some on clown finance TV talk about how the market is back above sp'2040... so.. 'everything is fine again'. I'd imagine it'll be the same next week if we break 2025... cool to 2000/1990s. and then eventually bounce to the 2030s.
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With just six trading days left of May, my attention is already shifting to how the month will settle. A close back under the monthly 10MA (currently 2014)... would really offer a clue that June will see a move to the low 1900s.. if not the mid 1800s.

Regardless... thanks for the comments/emails this week

Have a good weekend

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the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week

3pm update - 2050 for the opex close?

US equities remain moderately higher, and considering its opex... with resistance at 2060, the market makers will be inclined to attempt to pin the SPY ETF to 205... equiv' to sp'2050. With another equity bounce, the VIX is naturally subdued in the 15s.


sp'weekly1b

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX sitting on rising trend... equity bears could do with a weekly close >15.50.
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Well, its been another week of swings.. and we look set to close around sp'2050.. with VIX 15s.

Sure, bulls can argue they've (probably) managed a net weekly gain... breaking the downward run.

Yet.. bears achieved a lower high.. and a lower low, breaking the key lows of 2040/39 and (arguably, even more important... 2033).

Clearly, next week the target will be <2025... and then 2000/1990s.. if not the actual H/S target of 1970/60s.

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back at the close

2pm update - a touch of cooling

US equities are starting to show upside exhaustion, having seen a viable cycle peak of sp'2058 - with VIX 15.38. Were it not for opex.. the probability of increasing weakness into the weekend would be rather significant. As it is, a weekly close in the 2055/45 zone looks likely.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So... two hours to go.. and its a case of whether we see a minor net weekly gain... or a fractional net weekly decline. The dividing line is 2046.61.
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Here in London city... ending the week with some goldilocks sunshine...

Bearish shadow

Bullish sunshine

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back at 3pm

1pm update - somewhat stuck

US equities are holding moderate gains, and are somewhat stuck under resistance of sp'2060. With three hours left of the trading week, its merely a case of whether a significant number of the rats decide to jump ship into the weekend.. as the once touted key floor of 2040/39.. remains broken.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add.

If Mr Market wants to cause max upset.... it'll run the 2060s stop... but then cool after 2.30pm.

In any case... I can't take any upside seriously unless >2080... if not the 2100s.

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notable weakness, CHK, daily

Despite some hysteria in early March, and again in early April, Chesapeake Energy continues to broadly struggle, and remains on the disappear list.
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time for some sun.... back at 2pm

12pm update - still battling upward

US equities continue to build gains, sp +17pts @ 2057, with next resistance at 2060. With the USD +0.1% in the DXY 95.40s, the metals continue to cool, Gold -$4, with Silver -0.1%. Oil is in minor chop mode, -0.1% in the $48s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Little to add... on what is likely to be an increasingly choppy OPEX.

Market makers would be more inclined to try to pin the SPY to 205 (aka.. sp'2050).. rather than 204 or 206.

The only remaining issue for today is whether a significant wave of rats want to sell into the weekend. Certainly... it has to be asked.. who would want to be buying at this time.. or price?

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notable weakness, agri', DE, monthly

Deere is net lower for today by around -5%. Seen on a monthly cycle chart, we have a giant bear flag.. with massive resistance @ $85. DE looks highly vulnerable to the mid $50s before year end.

To be clear though, I like the company for the super long term.. I'll be looking to buy in the $50s... agriculture is one of the ultimate economic core sectors. Bullish... food.

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time for lunch

11am update - moderately higher

US equities are holding moderate gains, with the sp +14pts @ 2054. VIX is naturally in cooling mode, -4% in the mid 15s. With the USD +0.1% in the DXY 95.40s, the metals are under a touch of pressure, with Gold -$2.. and that is dragging down the related mining stocks.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

OPEX by definition tends to be increasingly choppy.

A daily close >2060 looks unlikely. Instead.. its merely a case of whether 2050/40s, or if the rats sell into the weekend.. with the 2030s.

Either way.. the bigger weekly equity/VIX charts are pretty clear.

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notable weakness... miners, GDX, daily

Even a bigger retrace to the $19s will do little to negate what is a massive bullish breakout since the Jan' low of $12.40.
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time to cook

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, with the sp'500 +0.7% in the 2050s. A sustained rally >2060 looks extremely unlikely.. and instead... equity bears should manage to contain things, with renewed downside to 2000/1990s next week. The more bearish H/S scenario offers 1970/60s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*equity bears need a Friday close <2046.61, for a fourth consecutive (if fractional) net weekly decline. Despite the opening gains.. that remains viable.
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So... we're back in the 2050s, which makes for a 29pt swing from yesterday's low of 2025.

Price action remains very choppy.. and indeed.. very similar to what we saw last Nov'/December.

Lest the bulls forget.. we've already broken the 2040/39 floor.. the current bounce sure doesn't negate that.

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notable strength... AAPL, daily

There will be strong resistance in the 96/97s...a move >$100 looks out of range, unless main market >sp'2080.
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Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity indexes are moderately higher, sp +7pts , we're set to open at 2047. USD continues to claw upward, +0.1% in the DXY 95.30s. Metals are trying to bounce, Gold +$1, with Silver +0.4%. Oil is choppy, -0.2% in the $48s.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. overnight gains.. but nothing remotely significant.

Underlying price momentum is increasingly swinging in favour to the equity bears. A weekly close in the sp'2010s remains viable.

Pushing against that is the fact that its opex. and that generally favours the equity bulls... at least to briefly stall any downward trend.

So... the sp'2010s are more viable next week than today. In any case... it shouldn't much matter to those short with a stop >2080.
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*as someone asked last evening about 'max pain'.... for the SPY it is 206.... aka' sp'2060. That won't be easy for the bull maniacs to achieve today... as there is declining resistance of 2043 by the close.

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Update from Mr C.



A good overview of Oscar's mid term outlook.
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Overnight action

Japan: +0.5% @ 16736
China: +0.7% @ 2825
Germany: currently +0.8% @ 9877

Most Asia/EU markets ending the week on a positive note, but they are all holding within broad downward trends from spring/summer 2015. 
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Have a good Friday

A fourth consecutive net weekly decline

Friday is opex.. and that usually leans in favour to the equity bull maniacs. However, there are exceptions, and the current daily/weekly cycles bode for increasing downward pressure into next week. As things, US equity indexes are set for a fourth consecutive net weekly decline. Ohh the humanity!


sp'weekly1b

sp'weekly8e - H/S, failed head test

Summary

re: weekly1b... last week's candle was spiky.. and its not surprising to see new lows broken this week.

re: weekly8e: this is essentially what Oscar Carboni has been touting for many.... many months. Indeed, its pretty bizarre to think that Oscar has been leaning bearish since last Autumn.

...and yes.. I realise some of you get riled up at the mere mention of Mr C).


Anyway... by default.. the H/S scenario... is suggestive of sp'1600 (at min').
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Looking ahead

Friday will see Existing home sales.

It is OPEX of course.. so expect increasing price action into the weekend. Considering recent price action.. it'll likely be choppy.. but leaning on the downside.

A hit of the 200dma to sp'2011/10 is very viable tomorrow afternoon.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -7pts @ 2040 (intra low 2025). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside to at least the 2000/1990s. A H/S formation (with the neckline now broken) is suggestive of more dynamic action to the 1970/60s.


spdaily5b

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

*it is highly notable that the Trans, R2K, and Nasdaq, are all sustainably trading under their respective 200dma.
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Overall price action remains relatively subdued, as reflected in a VIX that is stuck in the mid teens.

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a little more later...