Whilst equities closed the week moderately mixed, the VIX clawed moderately higher into the weekend (having seen a notable opening low of 18.46), settling +3.7% @ 19.81. Near term outlook is for volatility to remain broadly subdued into mid March.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*The VIX saw a net weekly decline of -3.5%.
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Price structure on the hourly chart is a clear bear flag - with a corresponding baby bull flag on the hourly equity cycle.
It would seem we'll see renewed equity upside next Monday, with VIX cooling to the 18/17s.
Broadly, the VIX will likely remain subdued into mid March.. before a key floor is put in. If sp'2020/40 zone, then VIX looks set for a brief foray to the 16/15s.
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts @ 1948 (intra high 1962). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.5% Near term outlook offers further upside to at least the 2K threshold. Best case is the 200dma in the 2020/25 zone, or the 2038/43 gap zone.. by FOMC week (March 14th).
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: micro chop.. leaning slightly on the upside.
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.. and another week comes to a close. This year is truly flying faster and faster, as financial and political developments unfold at what feels like an ever increasingly pace.
Price structure (marginally redrawn), remains a baby bull flag.. which bodes for the sp'1970s next Monday.
It is notable that CNBC will give no less than THREE hours of coverage to Mr 'Oracle of Omaha' Buffett, with his media lackey - Ms. Quick, next Monday morning. That has to be good for another 20/25pts, right?
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Yours truly is merely waiting for mid March - FOMC week... when the current 'everything is fine again' bounce from sp'1810, will surely have maxed out.
The Oscars are Sunday night.... with 'Super Tuesday' fast approaching... the entertainment just keeps on coming!
Have a good weekend :)
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week.
Despite a little cooling to sp'1945 - from the early morning high of 1962, US equities still look on track for the 1970s next Monday... with a viable straight run to the 2K threshold. For now, there is simply no real downside pressure, as the mainstream are increasingly confident that 'everything is fine'.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX teasingly breaks back above the key 20 threshold.... but I think we'll settle back under it. It remains notable that we saw 18.46 this morning!
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The smaller 5/15min cycles are now on the low side. Considering the bigger daily/weekly cycles, renewed upside into the close looks due.
In any case.. its been a week for the equity bulls.
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US equities remain moderately mixed, but price structure is offering a baby bull flag. The sp'1970s look due next Monday... with a viable straight run to the 2K threshold. The only issue seems to be whether the bull maniacs can hit the 200dma.. or even the 2038/43 gap zone in FOMC week.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX remains twitchy, having swung from an opening low of 18.46 to the mid 19s. It would seem likely we'll see a weekly close under the key 20 threshold.
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Little to add.. on what is a subdued day.
The US political developments continue to be rather interesting though.
Not surprisingly, with US equities continuing to broadly climb up and away from the Feb'11th low of sp'1810, the bull maniacs are starting to get overly confident again. Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer is just one of many guests in the mainstream now touting a broad rally to year end.
sp'weekly8f
Summary
Indeed, as expected. with continued upside, the mainstream are starting to increasingly confident again.
It is utterly ironic of course, considering that just a few weeks ago they were getting real upset, with talk of possible QE4 and NIRP.
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sp'2300s?
Stoltzfus - sp'2300s by end 2016.
My original outlook was for a late spring/summer washout to the 1600s... and then year end to 2185.
For now... I think its merely a case of seeing what the bears can manage in the next wave lower from mid March onward.
A grander issue remains capitulation in the oil/gas/mining industry. How much upset might that cause? Is Deutsche bank going to be taken down? If so... its hard to imagine the sp'500 being able to hold 1600.
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Just noticed...
Pretty interesting to see another analyst tout the sp'1600s, and I'll give clown finance TV some credit for balancing out some of the bullish hysteria.
Whilst the broader equity market remains pretty subdued, but still leaning on the upside, there is notable weakness in the precious metals. Gold -$16, with Silver -2.7%. The related miners are naturally on the slide, with the miner ETF of GDX -3.5% in the $18.70s.
GLD, daily2
GDX, daily
Summary
As Mr Market looks set to claw upward for another 2-3 weeks, Gold is losing its fear bid... and that is naturally dragging the miners lower.
Note the black-fail candles for GLD and GDX from 2 days ago...marking an exhaustion top. Whether GDX floors in the 17s, 16s.. or 15s.. difficult to say.
Whatever level Gold/miners are trading in FOMC week (March 14th)... I'll be looking to buy.
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US equity indexes remain holding moderate gains, with the sp'500 comfortably above the 50dma. A weekly close in the 1965/75 zone remains probable, as momentum continues to swing toward the bulls on the bigger weekly cycles. Of course, broadly... the monthly charts remain outright bearish.
sp'60min
sp'weekly1b
Summary
*note the floor spike on the weekly candle... HIGHLY suggestive of further upside to at least 2K.
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Dare I say, its feeling a little tedious, or maybe I'm just tired having returned from retail land.
There is next to zero downside pressure. So... a bit of chop.. but leaning on the upside into the weekend.
US equities open moderately higher, and unlike yesterday, having put in a daily close above the 50dma in the sp'1950s, the current gains are arguably less shaky/unreliable than yesterday. It would seem to merely be a case of whether we close in the 1950s, 60s.. or the very viable 1970s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX opens in the mid 18s... reflecting the 'everything is fine again' market complacency.
.. and no.. I don't think the opening VIX reversal candle is anything for the equity bulls to be concerned about.
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A fair bit of equity price chop seems likely today.. not least as the market will still tend to want to consolidate after the Wednesday reversal. What should be clear, having now broken into the 1960s... 2K is well on the way.
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notable weakness, miners, GDX, daily
Gold and the related mining stocks look highly vulnerable across the next 2-3 weeks, before the next powerful push higher. Primary upside target is $25/26.. by late April/May... along with Gold $1300.
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Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +9pts, we're set to open at 1960. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 97.40s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$3. WTIC Oil is +1.0% in the $33s.
sp'60min
Summary
Having broken and importantly.. closed, above the 50dma, this morning's gains will be less shaky than yesterday morning.
Indeed, the daily cycle is offering a Friday close in the 1970s today.. which is pretty bizarre, considering we were 1891 just two days ago.
So.. 2K is a given, right? The only issue now is whether a hit of the 200dma in the 2020s, or even a gap fill in the 2038/43 zone.
In either case... the aspect of time will be equally important. Given another 2-3 weeks.. that should be enough to conclude the up cycle.
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Update from a money burning Oscar
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Market chatter from Schiff
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Overnight action
Japan: rather subdued, +0.3% @ 16188
China: a relatively minor rebound, +0.9% @ 2767
Germany: currently +1.4% @ 9462
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Have a good Friday
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8.31am GDP (rev'1) 1.0%... upgraded from 0.7%.. and above market exp' of 0.4%.
So.. that is a positive for those macro-bulls who believe the US will avoid recession.
sp +12pts... `1963
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8.36pm
sp +13pts @ 1964
notable weakness... TVIX -4% in the $7.90s... that is $3 lower than Wed' morning.
Gold has swung... now -$3... and the miners are following.
Miners/Gold look highly vulnerable into mid March.
After the brief scare early Wednesday to sp'1891, US equity indexes are set for rather significant net weekly gains. Regardless of exactly where the sp'500 settles the week, the giant psy' level of 2K looks a pretty straight forward target by mid March.
sp'weekly1b
Trans, weekly
Summary
*Transports are set for the sixth consecutive net weekly gain, having climbed from 6403 to the 7400s. A hit of the 200dma in the 7800s now looks probable.
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Little to add.
The weekly cycles are arguably merely burning off from chronically oversold conditions. The current up wave from sp'1810 should conclude in the week of March 14th.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see Q4 GDP (rev'1), pers' income/outlays, and consumer sentiment.
*there are three fed officials speaking in the morning, and Mr Market will be listening!
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US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +21pts @ 1951 (intra
low 1925). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.9%
respectively. Near term outlook offers a weekly close in the 1965/75
zone, and that will continue a short-stop cascade all the way to the
psy' level of sp'2K.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Suffice to add, a decisive close above the 50dma for the sp'500 and Dow'30, and both indexes look set to climb a further 3% or so into mid March.
From there.. things start to get real interesting again.
