With the sp'500 closing lower for the third consecutive day, the VIX managed a second day of gains, settling +3.5% at 13.00 (intra high 13.22). Near term outlook is for a daily close under the 200dma (currently sp'2070).. which should see the VIX battle upward to the 16/17s
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle on the VIX is set to turn positive either tomorrow, or at the latest... this Thursday.
Much stronger.. and sustained upside in the VIX looks due across the rest of this week... at least to the 15s.. but the 16/17s look viable if sp' closes under the 200dma.
*I remain long VIX, seeking an exit in the 16/17s.. by the Friday close.
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts @ 2093 (intra low 2088). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for a daily close under the 200dma (2070), which will offer clarity that the US market has already maxed out for the summer.. and year.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour.. a few minor swings.. much like yesterday.
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So... a lot of chop today, but equity bears have the edge.. and we look set for more significant downside later this week.
Things will get interesting on a daily close under the 200dma (2070)... which seems highly probable.
US equity indexes look set for the third consecutive net daily decline... if a minor one... in the sp'2090s. VIX is still reflecting a market with little concern about anything... in the mid 12s. USD is building gains, +0.4% in the DXY 97.90s.. and that is a real problem for commodities... Gold back to flat.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Regardless of the close, today was a second failure for the bull maniacs to push and hold the sp'2100 threshold.
Sooner or later this week, we'll surely see a major sig' net daily decline.. with a close under the 200dma (2070).. and that is when things will get interesting.
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US equity indexes remain choppy.. leaning a little on the downside. A third consecutive net daily decline looks due.. somewhere in the sp'2095/85 zone. VIX is still stuck in the 12s... the 13s would be 'something' for those seeking much higher levels before the weekend.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
So.. the chop continues.. but a daily close above the sp'2100 threshold looks out of range.
Clearly, bears are still waiting for the first significant downside action. Considering the jobs data this Friday.. the potential is there.
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*DIS earnings due at the close... those will likely come in better than expected, but I'm guessing Mr Market will still want to sell that one lower - after initial gains, as it has done to many stocks post earnings lately... even the good ones.
US equities are starting to slide again, as few traders are willing to buy above the sp'2100 threshold. VIX still remains broadly subdued, but looks set to jump across the rest of the week, target remains the 16/17s.
sp'daily5
Summary
First target for the equity bears should be a daily close under the 200dma.. currently around sp'2070 (still rising each and every day).
It will only take one sig' net daily decline, and before we know it.. we should see have a chance at testing the early July double floor of sp'2044.
*I remain long-VIX.. and short-INTC.. and am in no hurry to exit until Thurs/Friday.
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notable weakness..
AAPL, daily
With the ugly break of support yesterday, we're seeing some bearish follow through today. The $105/100 zone looks a given. The bigger monthly cycle is offering lower levels.. but first things first.
US equities remain in chop mode, but increasingly leaning on the downside. USD has turned a touch negative, -0.1% in the DXY 97.40s. Metals are holding moderate gains, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is +1.4%.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Not much to add... as battle continues. Weekly/monthly cycles continue to swing in favour of the equity bears.
notable weakness, coal miners (as ever), Consol (CNX) -7% in the $14s... sub 10 looks easy.
AAPL, -3% in the $114s... at this rate of decline, first target zone of 105/100 will be hit before month end.
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ohoh, clown finance TV has wheeled out Laszlo 'the ruler' Birinyi
sp'3200 by late 2017, has he been reading my nonsense lately? lol
US equities remain in minor chop mode, as the bull maniacs are still resolutely battling to push to new highs. However, with technical breaks (AAPL being a notable recent example) all over the place, momentum is increasingly favouring the equity bears. VIX remains subdued, but the setup is there for mid/upper teens.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*note the 200dma, now at sp'2070.
If the bears can break just to the recent low of 2063.. and attain a daily close <2070... things will get rather interesting.
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Today sure seems like a replay of yesterday.... so.. perhaps expect increasing weakness within the next hour or two.
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back soon
Tuesday has opened much like Monday... some mixed chop, but leaning on the downside. A move into the sp'2070s looks a given... whether late today, or tomorrow, along with VIX 14s. A third consecutive net daily decline looks probable.
sp'daily5
Summary
Mr Market is battling to break/hold above sp'2100/50dma.. but its really struggling.
I realise some are calling for another wave higher, but we're now into August, and recent price action (go look at a Dow weekly chart) bodes that the bulls are out of time.
With the VIX already so low, I can't see how the market is going to be able to push higher to the upper weekly.. never mind the monthly bollinger - the latter now @ sp'2186.
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notable weakness... AAPL
... as more traders start to realise the importance of yesterdays loss of key support. Target is indeed the 105/100 zone.
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*awaiting Factory orders data...
1.8%... a touch above market consensus... certainly nothing bad about that number, and remains within the average of the last four years.
Indexes remain a touch weak... price action is very similar to yesterday.
Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2094. USD is cooling, -0.2% in the DXY 97.30s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is +1.1% in the $45s.
sp'weekly
VIX'daily2
Summary
.. and here we go again. Now its a case of whether we can put in a lower low (<2087).. along with a lower high.
Equity bears should be seeking a break into the 2070s... along with VIX 14s. Things only get interesting on a daily close under the 200dma.. which will be around 2070 today.
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*DIS have earnings at the close of today, and those will likely be very good. However, considering the broader market, there is a high probability that after an initial bounce ($123/125... the stock will sell lower.
DIS,monthly
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Update from an increasingly bearish Oscar
Interesting to see Oscar highlight the Bonds.
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Overnight China action: after a bit of chop, the Shanghai comp' ramped into the close, settling +3.7% @ 3756. A break under the recent low of 3373 still looks a given... even if PBOC cut rates in the next few days (they do tend to cut on a Sunday).
Whilst equities settled broadly lower for the second consecutive trading day, US bond prices were continuing to battle upward. The ETF of TLT settled +1.1% @ $123.58, and is now higher for the sixth consecutive week. Another 7-9 weeks of upside looks viable into early October.
TLT, weekly
TLT, monthly
Summary
*I realise many have little care/concern about the bond market... but it does have indirect implications for equities.
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The weekly cycle is set for a sixth net weekly gain... above declining trend/resistance of 123. First target is the 130/35 zone. A possible double top is setting up for late Sept/early Oct.
As for the monthly chart, if bonds do max out this autumn, with TLT in the 130s (or 140s).. first TLT downside target for 2016 will the be the $100 threshold.
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*I hold to the ECM (economic confidence model) as developed by Armstrong. Mr A' is broadly seeking a multi-year capital shift from the public to private sector, with a turn day of Sept 30/Oct'1st 2015. aka.. 2015.75.
The theory is entirely his, and I believe it is something that merits at least some consideration.
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Looking ahead
Tuesday will see Factory orders data (10am).
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As for the equity market...I shall merely conclude with this...
Those hoping 'the US equity market will be calm and fine into the autumn'... will likely be disappointed.
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Goodnight from London
US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -5pts @ 2098. The two leaders
- Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook
offers further downside, at least to the recent low of sp'2063. However,
any daily closes under the (still rising) 200dma will offer stronger
downside to the 2050/25 zone.
sp'daily5
Dow
Summary
Suffice to add... a second day lower for most indexes, and the market looks set for a particularly bearish week.
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Closing update from Riley for today (despite post title)
