It was a positive week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +6.1% (Nasdaq comp'), +3.0% (SPX), +2.2% (Dow), +0.6% (NYSE comp'), to -0.04% (Trans).
Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes
The SPX climbed for the third week of four, setting +84pts (3.0%) to 2874, having printed 2879 in Friday's closing hour. I would note key price threshold in the 2940s, as the 2930/50 zone contains a number of other aspects of resistance.
At the current rate, weekly momentum will turn positive at the Monday Apr'27th open. However, best guess is the market will stall in the low/mid 2900s. Minimum downside target are the mid 2300s. Considering the break of mid/long term trend in March, an eventual move <2K could be expected.
Four US equity indexes settled net higher for the week, with one net lower.
The Nasdaq comp' lead the way higher, whilst the Transports was fractionally lower.
More broadly, four of the US equity indexes are still below their monthly 10MA, the exception being the Nasdaq comp'.
A busy week is ahead, not least with an increasing number of earnings, but also another truck load of Corona related news.
M - HAL, STLD, IBM, INFY, ALLY, EFX,
T - KO, SNAP, UAL, NFLX, TXN, TRV, LMT, IBKR, CMG
W - DAL, AA, KMI, T, LVS, LRCX, SAVE, BIIB, CSX, PYPL, AMTD, NVS, STX, XLNX
T - DOW, PHM, FCX, CX, UNP, INTC, MMM, BX, LLY, AMZN, COF, DPZ, LUV, TAL, GNC, HTA, WST. WWE
F - AAL, VZ, DB, SNE, AXP, ON, TREE
M - Chicago Fed' nat' act' index
T - Existing home sales
W - EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, PMI manu', PMI serv', new home sales, Fed bal' sheet
F - Durable goods orders, consumer sent'.
The big question is... does the equity market just continue to broadly climb from here, re-taking old broken mid/long term supports? Some, such as Piper Sandler, are seeking a year end target of sp'3600. Unless we see most, if not all of the indexes re-take their respective monthly 10MA, I have to see the market as mid/long term broken.
Clearly, the fed's trillions of QE are going to help patch over some of the economic/market wounds, but such stimulus can only do so much. It sure won't help entice people back into the cinema, the shopping mall, or least of all...a ship or plane. Neither will it be enough to reopen hundreds of thousands.... if not millions, of smaller businesses.
Whilst an economic recovery can be expected across Q3/Q4, it will be painfully slow, and the market will become increasingly frustrated. We have further interesting and wild times ahead.... in the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend
*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.