VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains broadly subdued.. and looks headed lower into the weekend.
Right now... if sp'2060.. that might equate to VIX in the 14/13s.
--
more later... on the indexes
Thursday, 15 October 2015
VIX cooling lower
With US equity indexes closing significantly higher, the VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling -11.0% @ 16.05. Near term outlook offers further equity upside to the 2040/60 zone by the next FOMC of Oct'28th. The key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains broadly subdued.. and looks headed lower into the weekend.
Right now... if sp'2060.. that might equate to VIX in the 14/13s.
--
more later... on the indexes
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
VIX remains broadly subdued.. and looks headed lower into the weekend.
Right now... if sp'2060.. that might equate to VIX in the 14/13s.
--
more later... on the indexes
Closing Brief
US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +29pts @ 2023. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 2.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2030/40s, with the 2050/60s in FOMC week (Oct 26th>).
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: further gains... new highs.. absolutely nothing for the equity bears to be pleased about.
--
So... we have a retrace from 2022 to 1990.. and now we're breaking new cycle highs (from the sp'1871 low).
For now... equity bears have little reason to be getting involved as there is open air to the 2040/60 zone.. and the upper end of that looks out of range for another 7-8 trading days.
There is no hurry.
-
more later.. on the VIX
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: further gains... new highs.. absolutely nothing for the equity bears to be pleased about.
--
So... we have a retrace from 2022 to 1990.. and now we're breaking new cycle highs (from the sp'1871 low).
For now... equity bears have little reason to be getting involved as there is open air to the 2040/60 zone.. and the upper end of that looks out of range for another 7-8 trading days.
There is no hurry.
-
more later.. on the VIX
3pm update - significant gains
US equities have built somewhat significant gains, with the sp' having hit 2020, along with VIX 16.39. Underlying upward pressure is set to continue into early next week, as even Oil has broken out of the short term downward trend.
sp'daily5
USO'60min
Summary
.. if it gets any colder here.. I'm going to lose the ability to type my AH posts..
brb...
-
3.22pm... well, there go the sp'2022 short-stops.
Door is wide open to 2030/40s for tomorrow/Monday.
More broadly.. the only real issue is what happens in the 2040/60 zone... in FOMC week.
--
Oil has seen a rather powerful reversal... now +0.5%..
sp'daily5
USO'60min
Summary
.. if it gets any colder here.. I'm going to lose the ability to type my AH posts..
brb...
-
3.22pm... well, there go the sp'2022 short-stops.
Door is wide open to 2030/40s for tomorrow/Monday.
More broadly.. the only real issue is what happens in the 2040/60 zone... in FOMC week.
--
Oil has seen a rather powerful reversal... now +0.5%..
2pm update - building gains
US equities see renewed upside, breaking above the Wed' high to sp'2013.. along with VIX cooling to the 16s. Oil is battling to break out of the short term down trend, currently still -1.0% in the $46s. Metals remain a little weak, Gold -$2.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly7
Summary
*it is notable that the weekly 'rainbow' candle has turned back to an outright bullish green
--
Frankly, equity bulls should be very content with any close >2K... the 2010s will be a bonus.. and merely give extra clarity that higher levels are due into next week.
-
notable weakness: NFLX -8%.. and currently stuck around the $100 threshold.
strength: DIS +1.5% in the $107s.. seemingly headed for the 113/115.. at least.
-
back at 3pm
sp'daily5
sp'weekly7
Summary
*it is notable that the weekly 'rainbow' candle has turned back to an outright bullish green
--
Frankly, equity bulls should be very content with any close >2K... the 2010s will be a bonus.. and merely give extra clarity that higher levels are due into next week.
-
notable weakness: NFLX -8%.. and currently stuck around the $100 threshold.
strength: DIS +1.5% in the $107s.. seemingly headed for the 113/115.. at least.
-
back at 3pm
1pm update - tiresome Thursday
US equity indexes remain moderately higher, with a probable daily close above the sp' 2K threshold. VIX is naturally cooling, -5% in the low 17s. Metals are strong - relative to the USD, Gold back to u/c. Oil is making an attempt for a key turn.. despite supply issues remaining an underlying problem.
sp'daily5
USO'60min
Summary
Little to add.
A down wave from sp'2022 to 1990.. and we're set for a daily close back >2K. The 2030/40s look due next week.
Right now.. best case upside to sp'2060 looks viable no earlier than FOMC week.
--
Here in London city...
There is a huge amount of construction across the metropolis as there remains a chronic housing shortage... not least caused by mainland Europeans outbidding the domestic population.
--
back at 2pm
sp'daily5
USO'60min
Summary
Little to add.
A down wave from sp'2022 to 1990.. and we're set for a daily close back >2K. The 2030/40s look due next week.
Right now.. best case upside to sp'2060 looks viable no earlier than FOMC week.
--
Here in London city...
 |
| New houses.. under the sun |
There is a huge amount of construction across the metropolis as there remains a chronic housing shortage... not least caused by mainland Europeans outbidding the domestic population.
--
back at 2pm
12pm update - still too much oil
Whilst US equities remain moderately higher, there is notable weakness in Oil - with a weekly surplus of 7.6 million barrels, WTIC is -2.5% in the $45s, and this will make for the fifth consecutive net daily decline. The USD +0.4% in the DXY 94.30s is certainly not helping commodities today.
USO, daily2
GLD, daily
Summary
Metals are also cooling, but relative to the USD, and recent gains, Gold looks pretty strong. Indeed, the current daily candle is of the reversal (hollow red) type.
--
As for the equity market, now its a case of whether the market can attain a close >sp'2K... or if it further unravel to the gap zone in the sp'1950s. Right now.. the latter seems well out of range.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea
-
12.25pm.. So I title a post about how weak Oil is... and now its surging.. trying to break out of the down trend.
Clearly.. need a close in the $15s to offer clarity.
USO, daily2
GLD, daily
Summary
Metals are also cooling, but relative to the USD, and recent gains, Gold looks pretty strong. Indeed, the current daily candle is of the reversal (hollow red) type.
--
As for the equity market, now its a case of whether the market can attain a close >sp'2K... or if it further unravel to the gap zone in the sp'1950s. Right now.. the latter seems well out of range.
--
VIX update from Mr T.
--
time for tea
-
12.25pm.. So I title a post about how weak Oil is... and now its surging.. trying to break out of the down trend.
Clearly.. need a close in the $15s to offer clarity.
11am update - battling to build gains
US equities are battling pretty hard to build gains, with the sp +12pts @ 2007. A daily close >2010 would offer a strong indication that the 2030/40s are due within the near term. USD is notably rebounding, +0.5% in the DXY 94.40s. Gold -$3. Oil -1.7%.. ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
The retrace from sp'2022 probably completed yesterday at 1990.. and we're now headed higher into the weekend.
VIX is -4% in the 17s... the 15/14s look due if sp'2030/40s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the term.
--
notable weakness...
NFLX -8%.. having briefly lost the $100 threshold. There remains threat of 95/93.
STX -11%.. after a pre-earnings warning
-
Awaiting the EIA report........
11.05am.. EIA .. oil inventory surplus.. 7.6 million... the largest in some months.
Oil holding -1.7%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
The retrace from sp'2022 probably completed yesterday at 1990.. and we're now headed higher into the weekend.
VIX is -4% in the 17s... the 15/14s look due if sp'2030/40s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the term.
--
notable weakness...
NFLX -8%.. having briefly lost the $100 threshold. There remains threat of 95/93.
STX -11%.. after a pre-earnings warning
-
Awaiting the EIA report........
11.05am.. EIA .. oil inventory surplus.. 7.6 million... the largest in some months.
Oil holding -1.7%.
10am update - opening gains
US equity indexes open moderately higher, back above the psy' level of sp'2K. The smaller hourly cycle is offering upside across the day. With the USD +0.6% in the DXY 94.50s, the metals are under pressure, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.5%. Oil is weak, -1.6%.. ahead of the latest EIA report (due 11am).
sp'60min
Summary
Clearly, market is still in process of battling to cope with an increasing amount of earnings.. which are tending to lean on the 'miss' side.
Frankly, equity bulls should be content with any close >sp'2000... 2010s would be a bonus, considering the current price action.
--
notable weakness
NFLX, daily
A sharp opening drop... initial support is the psy' level of $100, and then key rising support in the 95/93 zone.
sp'60min
Summary
Clearly, market is still in process of battling to cope with an increasing amount of earnings.. which are tending to lean on the 'miss' side.
Frankly, equity bulls should be content with any close >sp'2000... 2010s would be a bonus, considering the current price action.
--
notable weakness
NFLX, daily
A sharp opening drop... initial support is the psy' level of $100, and then key rising support in the 95/93 zone.
Pre-Market Brief
Good morning. Equity futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open at 2004. USD is trying to rebound, +0.2% in the DXY 94.00s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$4. Oil is -0.8% ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Equity bulls should be aiming for a daily close >sp'2110... although it is certainly not absolutely necessary.
The 2030/40s look highly probable within the next 2-4 trading days. Last line of defence for the bears is the 200dma in the 2060s.
Of course.. that is just the sp'500, other indexes, and even more importantly, other world equity markets will be offering their own important signals.
--
Early mover...
NFLX -3% in the $107s... post earnings reaction. It is notable that the stock was in the $93s yesterday evening... but did manage a powerful rebound and stabilise around 106.
Earnings were a miss, but broadly, subscriber outlook is superb. I would not be surprised to see a net daily gain >$112.
--
Update from Oscar
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan:+1.1% @ 18096
China: a very strong day of building gains, +2.3% @ 3338. Just another 2% to key resistance of the 3400 threshold. A few daily closes >3400 would be highly suggestive the down wave from 5100 is complete... and be a bullish sign for other world markets.
--
Have a good Thursday
-
8.36am.. CPI m/m -0.2%... no sign of higher prices in the short term.
Empire state manu' survey, -11.... a lousy number, but not entirely surprising considering the capital market upset from Aug-Sept.
--
notable weakness, Seagate (STX) -12% in the $41s, after previewing its next earnings report will disappoint (why do they do that?).
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Equity bulls should be aiming for a daily close >sp'2110... although it is certainly not absolutely necessary.
The 2030/40s look highly probable within the next 2-4 trading days. Last line of defence for the bears is the 200dma in the 2060s.
Of course.. that is just the sp'500, other indexes, and even more importantly, other world equity markets will be offering their own important signals.
--
Early mover...
NFLX -3% in the $107s... post earnings reaction. It is notable that the stock was in the $93s yesterday evening... but did manage a powerful rebound and stabilise around 106.
Earnings were a miss, but broadly, subscriber outlook is superb. I would not be surprised to see a net daily gain >$112.
--
Update from Oscar
--
Overnight Asia action
Japan:+1.1% @ 18096
China: a very strong day of building gains, +2.3% @ 3338. Just another 2% to key resistance of the 3400 threshold. A few daily closes >3400 would be highly suggestive the down wave from 5100 is complete... and be a bullish sign for other world markets.
--
Have a good Thursday
-
8.36am.. CPI m/m -0.2%... no sign of higher prices in the short term.
Empire state manu' survey, -11.... a lousy number, but not entirely surprising considering the capital market upset from Aug-Sept.
--
notable weakness, Seagate (STX) -12% in the $41s, after previewing its next earnings report will disappoint (why do they do that?).
King Dollar continues to weaken
Whilst equities saw a second consecutive day of weakness, it was also another day where the USD continued to cool. So far this month, the USD is net lower by -2.7% @ DXY 93.92. Further weakness looks due to the 90 threshold.
USD, monthly
USD, weekly
Summary
The USD continues to broadly cool from the March high of DXY 100.72. It would seem the Aug' low of 92.52 will be broken within the next few weeks. From there, it looks a simple run to the 90 threshold.
The bigger monthly cycle is offering price structure of a large bull flag... but underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to turn negative in November. I would be surprised if there is sustained price action under DXY 90.
The implications are rather huge
A great many of the giant international (esp' Dow) companies have been hit pretty hard since the USD began the climb from the DXY 78s in May 2014.
If the USD does see sustained price action under the 90 threshold into 2016, that will really help give earnings a rebound.
Commodities would also likely see some significant upward pressure, notably the precious metals of Gold and Silver, and Oil.
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, CPI, Empire state manu', Phil' fed, and the latest EIA and Nat' gas inventory reports.
*Fed officials Bullard and Dudley are speaking in the morning, and Mr Market will no doubt be listening.
--
Goodnight from London
USD, monthly
USD, weekly
Summary
The USD continues to broadly cool from the March high of DXY 100.72. It would seem the Aug' low of 92.52 will be broken within the next few weeks. From there, it looks a simple run to the 90 threshold.
The bigger monthly cycle is offering price structure of a large bull flag... but underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to turn negative in November. I would be surprised if there is sustained price action under DXY 90.
The implications are rather huge
A great many of the giant international (esp' Dow) companies have been hit pretty hard since the USD began the climb from the DXY 78s in May 2014.
If the USD does see sustained price action under the 90 threshold into 2016, that will really help give earnings a rebound.
Commodities would also likely see some significant upward pressure, notably the precious metals of Gold and Silver, and Oil.
--
Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, CPI, Empire state manu', Phil' fed, and the latest EIA and Nat' gas inventory reports.
*Fed officials Bullard and Dudley are speaking in the morning, and Mr Market will no doubt be listening.
--
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
US equities closed broadly weak for a second consecutive day, sp -9pts @
1994 (intra high 2009). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and
-0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers strong support around the
50dma of sp'1985. Renewed upside still looks due to key resistance of
2040/60.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Little to add.
The last few days have been mostly chop... with what is a relatively minor retrace of the powerful wave from the (monthly jobs Friday) low of sp'1893.
Renewed upside looks due in the immediate term... at least to the 2030/40s.. and probably 2040/60 zone by the next FOMC.
-
a little more later..
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Little to add.
The last few days have been mostly chop... with what is a relatively minor retrace of the powerful wave from the (monthly jobs Friday) low of sp'1893.
Renewed upside looks due in the immediate term... at least to the 2030/40s.. and probably 2040/60 zone by the next FOMC.
-
a little more later..
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