Volatility climbs a little

With US equities generally pushing upward, the VIX remains at very low levels, settling today +2.3% @ 14.21. The near term outlook remains for the VIX to stay within a tight 15/12 zone, before climbing after the next FOMC.


VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add. If the market is not pleased with the jobs data tomorrow, there is risk of a minor (and brief) jump to the mid 15s. Certainly though, the 16s look out of range.

The big 20 threshold looks unlikely to be broken until April.
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more later. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp +3pts @ 1877 (new intraday high of 1881). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and -0.1% respectively. Regardless of the Friday open, the broader trend remains to the upside, probably at least to the next FOMC.


sp'60min

Summary

*Nothing can be discerned from the slight closing hour weakness. Frankly, it barely rates as noise.
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Price structure is arguably a baby bull flag..with upside to the 1890s viable as early as tomorrow. Other than that..there just isn't much to note.

Have a good evening!
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more later..on the VIX

3pm update - churn into the close

US indexes continue to churn ahead of the monthly jobs data. However, the moderate gains are still notable, and we have the Transports probably within a day or two of breaking new historic highs. Metals continue to slowly build gains, with Gold +$13.


sp'60min

Summary

*possible baby bull flag on the hourly chart, with first soft support in the mid 1860s.
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I'm not expecting much in the closing hour. Market is obviously in a holding pattern ahead of the next jobs data.

Even if we do open Dow -100/125pts tomorrow, it'll likely rebound. Underlying price pressure remains so strong, and the weekly charts look powerful into next week.
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*I continue to watch DRYS

Kinda interesting, not least with the opening black-fail candle. I'd be tempted in the $3.80s...AFTER the jobs data, certainly not before.
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Notable weakness: STX -5.5%

2pm update - market churning

US indexes are still holding moderate gains. Most notable, the strength in the Transports, now a mere 0.6% from breaking a new historic high. Metals are continuing to build gains, Gold +$12. VIX has flipped to minor gains, as the market slips a touch lower.


GLD, daily

Summary

sp'1876, an entire 5pts helow the earlier high. Is that what constitutes an intraday collapse wave these days?

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DRYS, continues to pull back....

60min

I'll be watching that one early tomorrow. The $3.80s would make for a tempting entry level.

Regardless...bigger picture is unchanged...broader upside into the next FOMC
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1pm update - Trans and Dow set to break new highs

The somewhat laggy Transports and Dow are set to break new historic highs, if not tomorrow...then next week. Such new highs would send another wave of confidence to the mainstream..and open up a further 1-2% of upside by the next FOMC of March'19


Trans,daily

Dow, daily

Summary

I realise some will be looking for a weak jobs number tomorrow, but hey..do you really think market is going to close lower by -1%?

Underlying price momentum is very strong.

Anyone shorting this needs to go stare at a monthly chart for rest of the week.

Notable weakness: STX -4.8% (I've no idea why)

12pm update - who wants to short this?

US indexes are holding moderate gains, with the sp'500 now just 6.4% away from hitting the next huge psy' level of 2000 (not that I expect that in the current multi-week ramp from sp'1737). Metals are building gains, Gold +$10.


sp'daily5

Summary

Not much to add. Just another up day...day'21...144pts above the 1737 low.


DRYS, 60min

I got my eyes on that one ;)  $3.80s would be kinda interesting...early tomorrow..perhaps.

*again, note the black spike candle at the open, they are kinda good indicators most of the time.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for tea.

11am update - 1890s are due... soon

US equities are holding moderate gains, with the sp' having broken to a new historic high of 1881. The 1890s look a given, the only issue is when we'll break into the 1900s..not 'if'. Metals are higher, Gold +$8. VIX is trundling in the 13s.


sp'60min

Summary

*I should probably clean ALL the numbers off the hourly chart. After all, the current price action of the past few weeks is hard to discern...other than the fact the trend is UP!
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Indeed, the trend is still up..and anyone trying to short this is effectively walking in front of a steam rollar.
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Notable pull back in DRYS from the open...

60min

A clear black-fail candle at the open, and there are two gaps to fill.. 3.95, and 3.80...although the latter one will be tough to hit - considering the daily/weekly charts. I'm still broadly bullish to 4.50/5.00 before the next FOMC of March'19..when the sp' will likely be in the 1910/20 zone.

10am update - 143pts across 21 trading days

US indexes are building moderate gains, with the sp'500 at a new historic high in the 1880s. The Dow and Transports look set to follow in the days ahead. Metals have turned higher, Gold +$6, with Silver +0.8%. VIX ix merely melting lower, in the upper 13s.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly8

Summary

What to say eh? Especially to those people who are STILL trying to short the ongoing hyper-ramp from sp'1737...

We're now...143pts higher (8.2%), across 21 trading days.
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Suffice to say...the upward trend continues!

Hourly and daily charts are offering the 1890s in the immediate term.

For the hyper-bulls out there, its important to note the monthly charts will be offering the 1940/50s by late March.
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Notable strength in the Trans, esp' the shippers.

DRYS, daily

*open air to $4.50/60..if not the big $5-00 threshold.
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10.02am..Yes, there is a black-fail candle on the hourly/daily DRYS, so...downside across the morning..but still. the weekly cycle is powerfully bullish - as is the BDI.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open at 1876, on the edge of breaking new historic highs. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$3. Equity bulls look set to continue clawing higher in the days ahead.


sp'daily5

Summary

We do have some econ-data this morning, so...things could be a little choppy

Perhaps we'll just get a second day of consolidation, ahead of the big jobs data. As it is, a weekly close looks likely, at least in the 1870s...if not the 1880s.
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Notable early mover: DRYS, +2.6% @ $4.25. There appears open air to $4.50 by the Friday close.

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Update from Oscar


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A quiet day in market land

It was a very quiet day in the US capital markets, after the rather huge Tuesday equity gains. The rest of the week will be centered around the next monthly jobs data - due Friday 8.30am. The sp'500 looks set for a weekly close somewhere in the 1875/85 zone.


sp'weekly8

Summary

There really isn't much to add..on what was a very quiet day, where the big Tuesday gains were consolidated.


Looking ahead

We have the usual jobs claims, productivity/costs, and factory orders. There is one Fed official on the loose - Dudley, and his comments will probably be monitored by a fair few.

*next sig' QE is not until next Monday.
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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The US indexes saw a day of sideways minor price chop, with the sp -0.1pts @ 1873, having made a fractional new high of 1876.53. The two leaders - Trans/R2/K, settled +0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish.


Sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

There is little to add, on what was a very quiet day of consolidation.

The only notable action was in the transports, which managed some moderate gains, and had an intraday peak in the low 7500s - pretty close to the historic high from late January.

a little more later...