Friday 31 July 2020

July settles

 US equity indexes ended the month on a broadly positive note, sp +25pts (0.8%) at 3271. Nasdaq comp' +1.5%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.9%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a broadly positive note, but there was an opening reversal, with the SPX seeing a significant swing from 3270 to 3220. From there, a latter day recovery, settling broadly higher at 3271.

Volatility remained relatively subdued, the VIX settling -1.2% at 24.46.

July settles


The SPX climbed for a fourth consecutive month, settling +170pts (5.5%) to 3271. Monthly momentum settled net positive for the first time since February, with the spx far above the 10MA of 3050.
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Summer 2020 won't last forever

July settles

Full moon... August 3rd
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday 30 July 2020

Naturally red Thursday

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, sp -12pts (0.4%) at 3243. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow -0.9%. The Transports settled u/c.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly weak, especially pressured via lousy econ-data, and European markets.

The following does make for a historically bad econ data point...

The Santelli of CNBC, highlighting a historically bad GDP print

Print'1 for Q2 GDP came in at -32.9%, verses -5.0% for Q1. Revisions could easily be +/- 5%, perhaps even 10% difference. In any case... its the most horrific data print we've ever seen. Things can only improve from here.

The SPX swung from a morning low of 3204 to 3250 in the late afternoon, but with most indexes still settling on the weaker side.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX spiking to 28.29, but settling +2.7% at 24.76. The SPX candle was a red reversal, with a mirroring black VIX candle, and they lean s/t bullish equities, at least for part of Friday.
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A fine summer's day

Full moon is August 3rd
--
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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday 29 July 2020

Extraordinarily uncertain

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +40pts (1.2%) at 3258. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +2.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, and built significant gains into the early afternoon.

Meanwhile...

The swearing CEOs of AMZN, FB, GOOGL, and AAPL

The FOMC was mostly a non-event, with Powell deeming the forward path for the economy as being 'extraordinarily uncertain, and noting he is not... 'thinking about, thinking about, thinking about raising rates'. The only thing of historical note...

More boxes than an Amazon warehouse

The afternoon saw the SPX push to 3264, and settling sig' higher at 3258.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX melting lower, settling -5.3% at 24.10.
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The London skies remain notably absent of planes

Twilight moon
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Goodnight from London
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Tuesday 28 July 2020

Leaning weak ahead of the fed

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -20pts (0.6%) at 3218. Nasdaq comp' -1.3%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -1.2%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, leaning on the weaker side. The SPX saw a morning low of 3221, and then upward into the afternoon to 3243.

Meanwhile...

It was day'1 of the FOMC. Clearly, no policy change can be expected. However, its probable the CEO of Print Central - Powell, will reiterate his support for further fiscal stimulus. 

Wargames (1982)

No doubt the Fed is ready, willing, and able to buy another $1trn or more of US t-bonds. I have to wonder what the Fed version of the WOPR is projecting for the US election, and into 2021?

The late afternoon saw a moderate cooling wave. Volatility picked up into the close, the VIX settling +2.8% to 25.44. Wednesday afternoon should offer some drama, and who doesn't like that?
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A fine end to the day

Next full moon is August 3rd
--
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Goodnight from London
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Monday 27 July 2020

A Golden start to the week

US equity indexes closed broadly positive, sp +23pts (0.7%) at 3239. Nasdaq comp' +1.7%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.9%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, but did claw upward into the late afternoon. Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX settling -4.3% to 24.74. 


Meanwhile...

Gold broke above the Sept'2011 historic high of $1923s, printing the $1941s. Today's cooler dollar in the DXY 93s certainly helped.

Gold, monthly'3


Psy'2K could clearly be seen before end month. Next big target is the 2400/500 zone.

Your views...


88.2% of you expect Gold to break above 2K before year end. With gold already breaking a new historic high, yours truly is open to 2400/500 before year end.



Around a third of you expect Silver to max out within the 25/29s.



Its not surprising to see Barrick Gold as the leader... and the leader is it, if not in price (still to break new historic highs), but underlying fundamentals.

--
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Goodnight from London
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Saturday 25 July 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -1.7% (Transports), -1.3% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.8% (Dow), -0.3% (SPX), to +0.5% (NYSE comp').


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500



Nasdaq comp'



Dow



NYSE comp'



Trans





Summary

Four US equity indexes settled net lower for the week, with one net higher.

The Transports lead the way lower, with the NYSE comp' resilient.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

More broadly, all five US equity indexes are currently trading above their respective monthly 10MA.



Looking ahead

A very busy week is ahead, with the first look at Q2 GDP, and another truck load of earnings. We can expect further Corona related headlines, especially in terms of the vaccine candidates. Its also likely we'll see some further 'developments' in US/China relations.

Earnings:

M - HAS, NXPI,

T - PFE, MCD, MMM, RTX, CNC, MO, JBLU, HOG, AMD, V, EBAY, SBUX, FEYE, AKAM, AMGN, CAR

W - SHOP, BA, GE, SPOT, ANTM, GM, APRN, PYPL, QCOM, TDOC, NOW, URI

T - UPS, MA, AZN, PG, KHC, BUD, CLF, LLY, NEM, CMCSA, AMZN, FB, AAPL, F, GOOGL, GILD, MGM, EA, XLNX

F - XOM, ABBV, PINS, CAT, MRK, CVX, UAA
-

Econ-data:

M - Durable Goods Orders
T - Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer con', Richmond Fed manu'
W - Intl' trade, pending home sales, EIA Pet'

FOMC announcement (2pm), with Powell (2.30pm). No change in rates or the ongoing QE program can be expected. Its likely that Powell will again state the Fed's support for further fiscal stimulus, and that the fed will do 'whatever is necessary' to bolster the US economy (or rather... the equity market).

T - Weekly jobs, Q2 GDP (print'1),
F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'

*As Friday will be end month, expect considerably higher volume.
-

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday 24 July 2020

Falling into the weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -20pts (0.6%) at 3215. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -0.7%. The Transports settled -0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly weak, with the SPX leaning to 3200, and settling at 3215. Thursday's bearish engulfing candle played out.

Volatility was pretty muted, the VIX settling -0.9% to 25.84. Thursdays bullish engulfing candle played out... if briefly.
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Moody skies to end a mixed week

Next full moon is Aug'3rd
--
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday 23 July 2020

There will be no V

US equity indexes mostly closed significantly lower, sp -40pts (1.2%) at 3235. Nasdaq comp' -2.3%. Dow -1.3%. The Transports settled -0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, if with a fractional new multi-month high of sp'3279.99.

Meanwhile...

The Santelli of CNBC

The latest weekly jobs data wasn't pretty, 1.416M vs 1.307 (revised) prior week. The run of improvement has concluded, as the economic recovery has stalled for obvious reasons. The notion of a V-shaped recovery was always nonsense. Now its a case of how rough the rest of the summer will be, and whether society itself devolves into even deeper levels of mass hysteria this autumn.

The afternoon saw a very significant swing lower - with tech leading the way, the SPX printing 3222. and settling at 3235.

Volatility swung from a low of 23.60 to settle +7.2% to 26.08. The daily SPX candle is of the bearish engulfing type, with the daily VIX candle of the bullish engulfing type. Those are not to be dismissed lightly.
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Appropriately moody skies for a Thursday
--
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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday 22 July 2020

Midweek chop

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +18pts (0.6%) at 3276. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled -0.1%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, after overnight declines were negated with yet another 'breaking news: Corona vaccine/treatment' headline...



They're going to roll out this vaccine candidate, whether its 'significantly' beneficial or not, if only to bolster morale, right?

The afternoon saw further chop, but with a closing hour mini ramp to a new multi-month high of sp'3279, ahead of MSFT and TSLA earnings.

Volatility melted lower, the VIX settling -2.1% to 24.32.
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Another sunset closer to winter 2020/21.

Next full moon.... Aug'3rd
--
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Goodnight from London
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