Volatility maxing out

With equities having (probably) put in a cycle low of sp'1982, the VIX has started to cool, settling -3.1% @ 20.42. There were some very 'kooky' price prints (as high as 24.83) across the day, but most are to be dismissed as 'unreliable'.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*the spikes on the 60min, or small trading cycles are truly bizarre. There were a fair few 'weird prints' on the VIX on Friday, but today was a consistent day of 'weird' price action.

Frankly, I've no idea if it was merely a CBOE problem.... but whatever it was.. the spike prints are arguably to be dismissed as 'noise'.
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VIX looks set to cool into year end. By mid/late January, VIX 12/10 zone looks very viable, not least if sp'2100s.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -12pts @ 1989 (intra range 2018/1982). The two leaders - Tran/R2K, settled +0.2% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers a key floor of sp'1982.. before renewed upside to 2030/40 by end week.


sp'60min

Summary

A very interesting day... not least for those with eyes on the metals/miners.. and Oil
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With some dynamic price action today.. a full set of updates across the evening.. to wrap up the day.

Have a good evening!

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities look set for continued chop into the close, having lost early morning gains (intra high sp'2018)... swinging to a new cycle low of 1982. Equity bears have had plenty of opportunity to exit, there can be no excuses after the Yellen opens her mouth this Wednesday afternoon.


sp'60min

Summary

Interesting day.. and its pleasing to have some decent price action to speak of.
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Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) on the hourly cycle.. ticking higher.. a bullish cross is very viable Tuesday morning.. which will open up 2030/40 by the quad-opex close.

Personally, I'd be very surprised if we take out today's low of 1982.

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Notable strength: DE, 1.6%

2pm update - holding the 1982 floor

US equities continue to see some moderate chop, with a rather probable key floor of sp'1982 - along with 'real VIX' maxing out in the 22s. Metals remain very weak, Gold -$15, with the miner ETF of GDX -2.9%. Oil remains exceptionally weak, -2.4%


sp'60min

Summary

*Bill Gross to appear on CNBC this hour... am kinda interested in that...
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Equity bears should be VERY mindful of a possible bullish MACD cross.. early tomorrow. It would likely cement sp'1982 as a cycle low.

VIX remains real twitchy.... its a wonder no one else seems to be noticing this...

VIX 5min

Endless price Spikes... major 'issues' at the CBOE I'd guess. Clearly.. a 'healthy' market, lol
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1pm update - chop chop

Equities are reverting to chop mode.. having seen a moderate bounce from sp'1982 to the high 1990s. VIX remains notably twitchy.. but on any basis, is likely at the upper end of this cycle. Metals remain weak, Gold -$15.. which is impacting the miners, GDX -2.3%


sp'60min

GDX, daily

Summary

*been such an interesting day.. I've still not cooked yet... I'm running on vapour fumes, urghhh
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Metals are looking really weak.. and I'm still of the view that metals/miners will fall into year end.
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Time to cook............. before I change my mind

12pm update - sliding to 1980... or 1950

US equities continue to slide, with the next support level at sp'1980 (38% fib retrace).. or the ultimate core of 1950 - where the 200dma is lurking. VIX remains extremely twitchy, with a brief spike 24.83.... almost fully filling the secondary gap zone of 22/25.


sp'daily3

vix'daily3

Summary

Interesting day huh?

So.. which will it be.... 1980.. or 1950.

Frankly, I did not think 1950s viably at all, but the door IS open...

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea

11am update - the twitchy VIX

Whilst equities have turned fractionally red across most indexes, the kooky action is in the VIX.. which remains exceedingly 'twitchy'. VIX has seen some bizarre price prints from 17.77, to 23.69. The upper gap zone of 25 remains viable.. if sp'1990/80.. whether late today.. or tomorrow.


VIX'5min

sp'daily3

Summary

So... opening gains.. major fail.

Overall... time for the equity bears is running out. There can be NO excuses after Wednesday afternoon.
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time to shop.. back soon.

10am update - opening gains

US equities open higher, but the trend from last week remains bearish for another few days. Metals remain weak, Gold -$12. Oil has turned lower, -0.4%. The window for equity bears is closing.... Yellen will be here Wednesday.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

No doubt, a lot of equity bears are getting real annoyed, but there remains high chance of another wave lower.

If sp'2000 fails... then 1980.... but really, that merely make for a better buying level.
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stay tuned. We have an interesting week ahead!

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 2008. Metals are weak, Gold -$3. Energy prices are rising, Nat' gas +2.0%, whilst Oil is +0.4%. With Yellen due on Wednesday, the equity bears are fast running out of time.


sp'daily5

Summary

So.. we're set to open a little higher, but really, its nothing significant, and with still a few days until the FOMC, there is high chance of another wave lower, late today... or tomorrow.

In either case.. the FOMC clock is ticking, and we're getting real close to a key turn.. with much higher levels due into next year.

Notable early weakness, GDX -1.6%.. with a likely down week for Gold.. esp' post FOMC.

Strength: TWTR +2.4%

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Update from Oscar


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Have a good week