Whilst US equities closed moderately mixed, the VIX was unable to hold early gains (intra high 23.44), settling lower for a fifth consecutive day, -5.1% @ 20.53. Near term outlook offers the sp'1950/65 zone.. which will likely equate to VIX 19/18s. If sp'2K by mid March, VIX 16/15s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*a net weekly decline of -19.2%.
--
Suffice to add.. as short term equity price pressure is pretty strong... the VIX continues to broadly cool from the recent high of 30.90.
VIX looks set to cool at least little further into March to the upper teens.
Broadly... VIX 40/50s look viable in late March/April.
--
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -0.1pts @ 1917. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed upside to the 1950/65 zone. A daily close in the 1970s will open up a test of the 200dma and the 10mma by mid March. From there... things get real.... real interesting.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: micro chop... leaning on the upside... as bears close out into the weekend.
--
.. and another week at the twisted casino comes to a close.
So.. we've seen the market rally 6.6% from last Thursdays low of 1810 to 1930. Certainly, 1930 seems no more a key high.. as 1810 is a key low.
At the least, we'll surely trade higher to the 1950/60s. The only issue is whether the bull maniacs can manage an extra push to the psy' level of sp'2K.
In either case... much lower levels are due after mid March.
Regardless of the exact close, all US equity indexes are set for significant net weekly gains, with the sp'500 having clawed from 1810 to 1930, having seen a minor retrace to 1902. VIX remains very subdued, -3% in the 20.90s. Metals are weak, Gold -$4, with Silver -0.6%.
sp'weekly1b
VIX'60min
Summary
More than anything this week, it has been rather amusing to see how the mainstream cheerleaders on clown finance TV are trying so hard to convince themselves that 'everything is fine now'. They keep touting how its impressive how the '1812' low held... a few months ago.. they were touting how it was so great 1867 was the secure low.
The reality is that we're seeing lower highs.. and lower lows..........
We are due bankruptcies in the oil/gas/mining sector.
The ricochet effects to the financials... that is difficult to say... but Deutsche bank is an obvious systemic problem for mainland Europe.
A long bearish spring is ahead... but for the moment... I'm more than content to watch the rally continue into early March.
US equities are seeing ever more subdued price chop. It is notable that the hourly bollinger bands are now sp'1933/1903.. and still narrowing... ahead of a move to test next resistance @ 1950/65 next week. VIX is naturally in cooling mode for a fifth day... -4% in the 20.70s.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.. on what is a rather typical opex day.
It really appears to merely be a case of whether 1950/60s are hit next week.. or early March. In scheme of things.. it makes little difference.
Whether the market can claw its way to the psy' level of 2K.. I'm still a little dubious about.
--
A video.. for those in the mood for a little bearish doom...
US equities are increasingly subdued, but then it is opex. All US indexes are set for significant net weekly gains, with further upside due next week. Next key resistance is the sp'1950/65 zone. A daily close >1970 will not be easy... not least as the financial rumbles are growing louder... for those who care to listen.
sp'daily5b
Trans' weekly
Summary
*it is highly notable the 'old leader' has been leading the way higher... and is set for the fifth consecutive net weekly gain.
--
Little to add.
Regardless of the rest of today... its been a week for the bull maniacs... and bears clearly don't have much chance until mid March.
--
notable strength... INFN
Infinera is a company I now regularly keep an eye on, and despite viable near term upside to the $16s, it looks headed a long way lower.. if sp'1600s this spring. Fundamentally.. it appears rather good.
Most US indexes are already close to flat, as the equity bears lack any sustainable downside power. With it being opex, the market is more prone to increasing chop for the rest of today. It is notable that the VIX has now turned negative, -2% in the 21.10s.. a weekly close in the 20s looks due.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*VIX is set for a fifth consecutive net daily decline, having cooled from 30 to the 21s. The 19/18s look a rather easy target. If sp'2K, might that equate to VIX 16/15s?
--
Little to add... on what is a rather dowdy day.
--
Here in London city... the sky matches the market rather adequately...
The sp'500 is offering a retrace floor of 1902, which is close enough to what is a rather natural flooring zone. VIX remains subdued, and looks set to turn negative.. which would make for the fifth consecutive net daily decline. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7, with Silver -1.0%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
Current price action sure doesn't hold ANY hope for those bears who are seeking sustained price action under the sp'1900 threshold.
What should be clear... we're set for sig' net weekly gains, with next upside target of the 1950/65 zone. Any daily closes >1970... and it'll lead to the 2K threshold by mid March.
For now..the serious bears should arguably be side stepping all of this minor noise.
US equities look set to floor within the sp'1900/1895 zone this morning, before stabilising ahead of further upside next week. VIX has naturally jumped into the mid 23s, but anything much above the 24s looks out of range. Despite a weak market, the metals are cooling, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.7%.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*the opening VIX candle should not inspire those bears who think this is the start of something significant.
--
So... opening weakness.. but in any case.. we're still set for significant net weekly gains.
Anyone who thinks we now break <1810.. really needs to go stare at a weekly chart for the rest of the month.
--
notable weakness... STX
I've no idea why its lower.. other than the broader market.
-
back later
Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 1912. USD is a touch weak, -0.1% in the DXY 96.90s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$7, with Silver -0.5%. Oil is -0.4% in the $32s
sp'60min
Summary
There is clearly risk of a minor washout to the sp'1900 threshold, before resuming higher to 1950/60s next week.
--
early movers...
Deere (DE) -3.0% in the $77s, as the outlook is drastically cut.
Downside target is pretty clear... the mid $50s.
--
Overnight action
Japan: -1.4% @ 15967.... pretty negative end to the week
China: -0.1% @ 2860... rather subdued
Germany: currently -0.4% @ 9421
-
It was a day of moderate chop for US equities, with the sp'500 swinging from an opening high of 1930 to 1915, and settling -8pts @ 1917. Broadly, higher levels still seem due in the current up wave from 1810. The setup for late March/April continues to favour the equity bears.
sp'weekly1b
sp'monthly1b
Summary
More than anything.. anyone seeking much lower levels this spring/summer should be aware of the multiple aspects of resistance from the sp'1950s to the giant psy' level of 2K.
Any daily closes above the 2000 threshold would be a core failure to the equity bears.
For now... I'm still holding to the original outlook, the 1600s, and then battling upward into year end... not least if the Fed initiates QE4
A real scary question is if the Fed would dare reverse its Dec' rate hike.... and eventually move to NIRP.. + QE4?
How might the market react to that? Based on recent moves.. the financials would be very upset at NIRP... even if the printers are spooled up at print HQ.
---
Gold/Market chatter from Schiff.
--
Looking ahead
Friday will see the latest CPI. It will be OPEX, so expect increasing price action/chop in the late afternoon.
*Fed official Mester will be speaking on the 'economic outlook' in early morning.. and that might give the market an excuse to briefly cool to around 1900... before resuming higher.
-
US equities closed moderately lower, sp -8pts @ 1917 (intra low range
1930/15). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around
-0.6%. Near term outlook offers Friday weakness, but broadly, the
1950/60s look due next week. Whether 2K is hit before mid March... is
arguably broadly inconsequential.
sp'daily5b
Trans
Summary
*next upside target on the Trans remains the 200dma, and that will remain in the 7900s for the next few weeks. Sustained action >8K looks entirely out of range.
--
As for the sp'500, any near term retrace looks limited to around the 1900 threshold.. before resuming higher to the 1950/60s.
Sustained action >1970 will not be easy... as almost everyone recognises. A brief test of the 200dma and the 10mma around sp'2K looks just about viable by mid March.
From there though... first downside target is the 1750/25 zone.
--
