VIX lower for a fifth day

With equities closing higher for the fifth day of six, the VIX settled lower for the fifth consecutive day, -8.5% @ 12.11 (intra low 11.87). Near term outlook offers an equity retrace to the 2090/80 zone, which should equate to VIX briefly in the 15s, 16s look increasingly difficult.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Pretty incredible to see the VIX having been crushed from a high of 20.05 last Thursday afternoon, to the 11s.

This market sure can get super complacent extremely quickly.

Best guess... a moderate VIX pop to the gap zone.. at least to 14.75/15.25. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until late August.
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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly higher, sp +16pts @ 2124. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace to the 2095/90 zone, with the micro gap around 2080 looking somewhat difficult. Broader upside into early August remains probable.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour, a lot of minor chop, but with a fractional new cycle high.
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Well, despite the market having closed, the Yellen continues, and will probably last another hour.

Interesting to hear Yellen claim Fed policy is not beholden to the equity market, yeah.. sure.
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Price structure is not offering the equity bears anything much for tomorrow. Market looks set to close the week above the 2100 threshold, and that bodes well for broad upside into early August.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - the closing hour, minus the Greeks

US equities are set to close higher for the 5th day of 6, with the sp'500 having ramped from 2044 to a new cycle high of 2123. VIX remains extremely subdued, -9% in the upper 11s...an extreme -28.9% lower so far this week. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4, with Silver -0.5%


sp'60min

VIX'weekly

Summary

Well, unlike yesterday, there are no Greeks on the rampage, and the market looks set to comfortably close in the 2115/25 zone.

With things as they are.. its not a setup that particularly favours the bears tomorrow.

*I remain holding a small VIX-long position. I suppose things could be worse, I could have been heavy short NFLX.
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Unless Yellen says something stupid about interest rates...  I will merely be back at the close.

2pm update - time for more Yellen

Fed Chair Yellen is set to reel off yesterday's opening remarks again, this time to the US Senate. A Q & A will follow, and will likely stretch beyond the market close. Hourly equity/VIX cycles are offering weakness into the close, but chances of more rowdy Greeks.... low.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*Yellen is due at 2.30pm... I'd guess clown finance TV will cut away before the market close, but Mr Market will certainly be listening for any comments on interest rates.
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Price structure on the equity hourly cycle is arguably a flat top, and bears need a daily close <2115 to offer any hope that the week will end on a negative note.

Maybe Yellen will say something stupid about rates and annoy the market?
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notable weakness: coal miners, BTU -7.2%... as the sector continues to be destroyed.

Ford (F), -1.6%, struggling in the $14.50s.

INTC -1.2% in the $29.30s... and the bigger daily/weekly cycles are looking real ugly to the mid/low 20s by early October.

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meanwhile...  warm... but grey in the big city....

I suppose the skies are marginally more bearish than bullish.

1pm update - Pre-Yellen chop

US equities are set for increasing minor chop, ahead of the Yellen, who is due to spout more fedspeak, this time to the US senate. Equity bears should be desperate to break back under soft rising trend - which at the close will be around sp'2114.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

A new intra low for the VIX of 11.87, and that sure is a long way down from the Wed' afternoon high of 13.97.
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notable weakness: INTC -0.4%... the $29 threshold looks vulnerable.

strength: NFLX +16.6%...
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back at 2pm

12pm update - battling upward

US equity indexes continue to battle upward, with a new cycle high of sp'2122, with VIX having been re-crushed to the low 12s (intra low 11.97). USD is holding moderate gains of 0.3% in the DXY 97.50s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4, with Silver -0.4%


sp'60min

Summary

There really isn't any resistance until the historic high of 2134.. after that... monthly upper bol' 2170s.

For now.. this is getting marginally frustrating, even though the broader trend was always expected to be higher into August.

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meanwhile... the lunacy continues...

NFLX, daily

With EPS of 24 cents a year... the PE is now 470, but some still think that is a bargain. Crazy times.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for a cool drink.. or something

11am update - moderate gains

US equities are holding moderate gains, having broken a new cycle high of sp'2121, a mere 13pts shy of a new historic high. VIX is attempting to floor from 11.97, a daily close in the 13.30s or higher would be some hope to the bears that the market will cool (at least somewhat) into the weekend.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*keep in mind... Yellen is due this afternoon at 2.30pm EST, and that will likely continue after the market close.
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Well, its the 11am hour...  its getting somewhat tiresome again, with the market higher for the 5th of 6 trading days.
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notable weakness (at least relatively), INTC, +0.9%, having already come close to turning negative.

Hyper strength: NFLX +13% in the $111s.. that would be the $770s in old money. I guess a PE of 450 is still too much of a bargain for some to pass up.

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time for an early lunch
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11.14am..  and INTC turns red... in the $29.60s. An ugly failure from the AH high in the low $32s.

10am update - opening gains

US equities open moderately higher, with a new cycle high of sp'2121, with VIX naturally cooling to the low 12s. USD is +0.3% in the DXY 97.40s. Metals are under pressure, Gold -$5, with Silver -0.6%. Oils is moderately higher, +0.3% in the $51s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So.. we're higher.. at the upper gap zone. Above sp'2120 and there really isn't anything until the recent historic high of 2134.

Right now.. its not looking great for those seeking a retrace.

The lower gap zone of 2080 looks difficult, but 2095/90 by the Friday close is still in range.

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Notable mover... INTC, pretty unstable price action though... hitting $29.70, before swinging back higher.

60min cycle

Keep in mind that INTC was trading in the low $32s in Wednesday AH action. Current price action is a major fail. with underlying earnings... lousy.
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10.25am.. We're clearly seeing some initial resistance around the sp'2120 threshold... bears really need at least a minor net daily decline to offer some hope of 'weakness into the weekend'.

VIX early floor of 11.97.. a full 2pts below yesterday afternoons high. Urgh.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open at a new cycle high of 2117. Sustained action above 2120 looks very difficult in the near term. USD is continuing to rise, +0.4% in the DXY 97.50s. Metals are naturally under pressure, Gold -$5, whilst Oil is +0.5%


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*important note. The Yellen will be talking to the US Senate today at the unusual time of 2.30pm.. rather than 10am.  I would imagine that will drag on into the market close, probably to 5pm EST.
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So... we're set to open higher.. above yesterday's high, and now its a case of whether this market melts upward into the weekly close, or if we see a swift reversal.

I would still guess we have a high opportunity of retracing lower... at least to the 2090s... but with a rather attractive micro gap around 2080.. which in theory would equate to VIX 15/16s.
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notable early movers..

NFLX +10% @ $108...   6 cents x4 .. that is $0.24 of earnings a year... giving a PE of 450... a mere FOUR HUNDRED AND FIFTY YEARS for an investor to recover their investment.

INTC +2.5% in the $30.40s... with EPS of 55 cents.. but underlying numbers plain suck. Market seems to realise this..having sold it lower from the low $32s last night.

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Overnight China action: Again, the volatility continues to lessen, with the China market seeing early weakness to 3688, but settling +0.5% @ 3823. Renewed weakness for a day or two seem probable, before another lunge higher back above 4K.. to the 4400s in August.

I am still looking for another massive wave lower.. to the 3200/3000 zone this Sept/Oct.
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*I remain long VIX from 12.92. I'd guess we'll be trading under that this morning... but there still appears a fair chance of seeing at least the mid 14s by the Friday close. As ever, I'd prefer an exit into the weekend.

Have a good Thursday
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9.00am.. Draghi is battling against questions from the media hacks about the Greek bailout'3.

US indexes increasing gains, sp +13pts.. we're set to open at 2120.... a mere 14pts shy of the historic high.

INTC +2%... still cooling from the AH high... if the market does turn lower today.. or tomorrow... INTC will be in trouble.
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9.35am.. INTC.. huge opening FAIL.... +0.5%.... set to turn red. 

Eyes on the prize

It was a mixed day for US equities, with a new cycle high of sp'2114, but settling -1pt @ 2107. Further weakness looks due to the 2090/80 zone - with VIX 15/16s, and then renewed upside into August. The real prize for the equity bears though is likely coming within the mid-August-early October time frame.


sp'weekly6

VIX'weekly2

Summary

A somewhat tiresome day.. ending with yours truly seeing INTC soar on earnings..having exited (long) yesterday. I suppose it could have been worse, I could have flipped to the short side.

re: the two charts above... I shall merely add... I continue to see a major wave lower after the market maxes out in the first half of next month. Whether that is from the sp'2120s, 30s.. or even 2170s.. .difficult to say.


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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, phil' fed, and housing market.

However, it will be day'2 of the Yellen, this time talking to the US senate.

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Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed a touch weak, sp -1pt @ 2107 (intra high 2114). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by -0.7%. Near term outlook is bearish to the micro gap around sp'2080... along with VIX 15/16s. Broader upside into August still looks probable.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*Trans remains the market laggard, with the Oct' 2014 low of 7700 seemingly an easy target. A broader downside target of 7250/7000 looks viable this Sept/Oct.
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Little to add.

There remains high probability of the sp'2090/80 zone before the weekend... and that should equate to VIX 15/16s. From there, market should have opportunity to break new historic highs in at least some indexes.. before rolling over by mid August.

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a little more later...