Saturday, 14 December 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +0.9% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.8% (NYSE comp'), +0.7% (SPX), +0.6% (Transports), to +0.4% (Dow).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (weekly candle charts)

sp'500



Nasdaq comp'



Dow



NYSE comp'



Trans






Summary

All five US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way, with the Dow lagging.

The SPX, Nasdaq comp', Dow, and NYSE comp' broke new historic highs.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead for the year, currently +31.6%, with the SPX +26.4%. The Dow is +20.6%, and the NYSE comp' +20.4%. The Transports is lagging, but still net higher by a very considerable +17.5%



Looking ahead

It will be the last full trading week of the year/decade.

Earnings: HEI (Mon'), JBL, FDX, SCS (Tues'), GIS, MU, PAYX (Wed'), DRI, NKE, ACN (Thurs'), BB, KMX, WGO (Fri').

Econ-data: *to add early Monday*

M -
T - 
W -
T -
F -
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Another sunset closer to winter solstice

Final note


There are just 10.5 trading days left of the year/decade. Every day continues to get ever more crazy in the twilight zone. We have the US President leading the charge, literally posting market updates most days. The Fed are already printing of course, and also adding massive support via ever larger overnight REPOs.

With a clear majority, Johnson/Conservatives, are set to finalise and push through a BREXIT bill, with the UK to leave the EU, as early as end January 2020. Meanwhile, Trump is on track for a second term, and no doubt, the US capital markets will be happy about that.

Perhaps all that is missing, is renewed talk about an infrastructure bill, but I guess that can wait until 2021. There is little sign of the 'everything bubble' bursting. After all, how could they let it?
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Thursday, 12 December 2019

Another deal is close tweet

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +26pts (0.9%) at 3168. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +0.8%. The Transports settled +1.0%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and then...


... with Trump issuing yet another 'deal is close' tweet. The Schiff duly replied.

The market hyper spiked on the trade tweet, with the SPX, Nasdaq comp', Dow, and NYSE comp' all breaking new historic highs. There was some distinct cooling though into early afternoon, as conflicting comments from China appeared (naturally... via Twitter). A secondary wave higher was seen, but holding under the morning high of 3176.

Volatility was knocked lower, with the VIX settling -7.0% at 13.94.


I shall end today with...


Greta indirectly replied via an update to her profile...


 ... and that dear reader, is just another day... in the twilight zone.

Goodnight from London
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A glimpse through the clouds

The waning moon, ahead of Friday the 13th
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Wednesday, 11 December 2019

The UK election

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +9pts (0.3%) at 3141. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +0.4%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and remained that way into the 2pm press release from Print Central.

Meanwhile...


Gundlach appeared with Wapner of CNBC. It was an interesting interview, with Gundlach not seeing a recession in 2020. Neither does he see even a 'phase'1' trade deal before the next election. Finally, a second term for Trump is his 'base case' as the democrats are (unquestionably) struggling to find a viable candidate who could realistically challenge Trump.

His comments on government deficit spending accounting for ALL of current growth is something that will be overlooked by many.

The afternoon saw a press release from Print Central, which not surprisingly detailed no change in policy.


Powell covered a fair few issues via the Q/A, not least the ongoing overnight REPOs. Today's cooler USD helped kick Gold, Silver, and the related miners upward. I'd imagine the US President will be pleased if the dollar cools into year end, and across 2020.

Volatility was itself subdued, with the VIX settling -4.4% at 14.99.
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The UK election

Thursday will see the UK have a general election, with all 650 seats up for the taking.

Q. What is my call on it? Its tough to call, not least as I'm seriously biased on this matter.

For the record, I'd like to remain within the EU, and for that, I need either another coalition government, or an outright Corbyn/Labour victory. To be clear, I'm no supporter of any of the main UK parties. I'd merely like to keep my right to live and work anywhere within the EU.

The vote should be pretty tight. My best guess is for no party to have a clear majority. I see a moderate chance of a Corbyn/Labour majority.

Johnson/Conservatives can't expect anything more than a minor majority of 5/15. Even then, the question I keep asking myself.... why the hell would the UK populace vote for Johnson/Conservatives after the last THREE years of failure?

The UK economy is stagnating (Oct' GDP 0.0%) as consumers and businesses are holding back on spending/investment. The mood, not least in the London metropolis, is NOT good. Voters can be expected to protest-vote against Johnson/Conservatives.

I should note, if BREXIT is eventually cancelled altogether, that would be bullish the GBP and Euro, and by default... bearish the USD. A weaker dollar is something almost everyone wants, not least the US President.

Finally, I would note that the mainstream have called every major political event wrong for some years.

They never saw the original BREXIT vote outcome in 2016.
They never saw Trump winning.
They never saw the UK not leaving the EU in March 2019
They never saw PM May resigning
They never saw Johnson becoming PM

... and currently, they see a Johnson/Conservative victory.
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Moody skies ahead of the big vote

... and finally, perhaps one of the best (unintentional) pics I've ever taken. The rising full moon, with a plane (descending toward Heathrow) breaking into shot.

To the moon!
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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