Thursday, 16 January 2020

The algo-bot melt continues

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +27pts (0.8%) at 3316. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. The Transports settled +1.0%. Near term outlook offers broad chop into OPEX, and the long three day break.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and it was enough to generate another set of new index historic highs. Price continued to melt upward into late afternoon. Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling -0.8% at 12.32.


Open day Friday

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First post will appear by 8.30am EST.

Whilst price action will be inclined to broad chop for OPEX - ahead of a long three day break, I'm sure there will be some dynamic individual movers that will merit attention.
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Yours.. awaiting summer sun
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Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Phase one signed

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 3289. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, but leaned upward to break new historic highs to sp'3298. The 12pm hour saw US President Trump, and (tier'4) Vice-Premier Liu He of China finally got around to signing a phase one trade deal...


Whilst the US was represented by Trump, there was no sign of Xi, whom I'm sure had 'better things to do'.  The afternoon saw a minor burst upward on the excuse of the Fed's latest beige book, but then price leaned weak to 3280, only to see a micro ramp to settle a little higher at 3289.

Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling +0.2% at 12.42. The three day break.... can't come soon enough.
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Post stormy Tuesday

Ray of hope
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Tuesday, 14 January 2020

This market is high

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -5pts (0.2%) at 3283. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +0.9%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but leaned upward, with the SPX breaking a new historic high of 3294 in early afternoon.

There was a piece of spooky tariff-related news though, which saw the algo-bots panic. From a spike floor of 3277, the SPX settled just a little lower at 3283. Volatility saw an afternoon spike high of 13.82, but settling +0.6% at 12.39.


This market is high

It is unquestionably the case that the US equity market is grossly short/mid term over-stretched. Price action and structure is similar to late 2017/early 2018. We have no less than 12 downside gaps to the mid/low 2900s. It is almost inconceivable those aren't filled sooner, rather than later.

Even Wapner of CNBC recognises this market is getting kinda crazy...


In regards to Ark Invest' touting Tesla (TSLA) to $6000: "Is it just me, or is it the theater of the absurd?" - Wapner.

I will just add that whilst the US/China are set to sign phase'1 of a trade deal on Wednesday, I am guessing there will be a 'sell the signing' equity reaction.
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The closing theme to 'Happy Death Day' (2017).
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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