Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Strong USD concerns

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -21pts (0.7%) at 2818. The Nasdaq comp' settled -1.2% at 7774. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers capitulation in the sp'2760s, before swinging back upward.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, dragged lower by significant weakness in other world markets. The sp' unravelled to 2802 in early morning, before a series of moderate swings that continued into the late afternoon.

Volatility naturally spiked higher, with the VIX seeing a peak of 16.86, the highest level since July 2nd. There was cooling into the close, with the VIX settling in the mid 14s.
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USD, monthly (EOD Aug'15th)


The King of fiat land remains the USD. Note the macd (blue bar histogram) bullish cross, as momentum is now fractionally positive. A move from the DXY 96s to the giant 100 threshold isn't a bold target, given another 2-3 months. If correct, bearish implications... especially for the precious metals... within a rising rate environment. 
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Open day

Thursday Aug'16th will be open day at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com, and for you non-subscribers out there, it will give you an opportunity to follow me across the day. Thursdays tend to be pretty dynamic, so it should be an interesting day, not least with Nvidia earnings due in AH. First post will appear by 8.30am EDT.




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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Tuesday bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +18pts (0.6%) at 2840. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. VIX settled -9.9% at 13.31. Near term outlook threatens another swing lower from the 2850s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately, but the gains were pretty shaky, and the market almost came close to turning negative. The buyers did appear though, and the market battled upward into the closing hour.

Volatility naturally cooled, with the VIX settling in the 13s. S/t outlook offers the sp'2850s with VIX 12/11s. Thursday will lean to the equity bears, whilst Friday will favour chop for opex.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

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Monday, 13 August 2018

A fourth day lower

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -11pts (0.4%) at 2821. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.6%. VIX settled +12.3% to 14.78. Near term outlook offers a bounce to the 2850/60s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a choppy day to begin the week, mostly leaning on the bearish side. The sp' swung from a pre-market/overnight decline of around -18pts, opening fractionally higher, and clawing to 2843. There was renewed cooling to break under last Friday's low, with a new spike floor of 2819, climbing to 2832, before closing hour cooling.

Volatility climbed for a third day, with the VIX settling just above resistance of the mid 14s. The 17/18s are clearly viable in the near term.

Best guess, s/t upside for 1-2 days to the sp'2850/60s. It won't take much of an excuse to see a bounce. Whilst Thursday generally favours the bears, Friday opex will lean to chop.
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Bonus chart: Turkey'100


A Monday decline of -2.4%, which is arguably somewhat impressive considering the ongoing Lira crisis. Note the macd bearish cross, which does lean to the Turkish bears in the immediate term.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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