Monday, 6 July 2020

Positive start

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, sp +49pts (1.6%) at 3179. Nasdaq comp' +2.2%. Dow +1.8%. The Transports settled +1.6%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, helped by both European, and especially Asian markets. The cooler dollar certainly also gave most asset classes an extra kick higher.

The President (not surprisingly) chimed in...


Indeed, a new historic high for the Nasdaq comp', helped by the US/global equity leader of Microsoft (MSFT).

The late morning and afternoon saw considerable chop, but leaning upward into the close.

Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX settling +0.9% at 27.94.
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Goodnight from London
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Sunday, 5 July 2020

Sunday meanderings

A little glimpse of the world of yours truly...

9.00pm BST

Sunset.. a little bit earlier than before.

Looking towards the capital... of mass bankruptcies

Bullish... the twilight zone

The waning moon
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 3 July 2020

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +8.8% (Brazil), +8.6% (South Africa), +7.7% (India), +6.4% (Hong Kong), +6.2% (Germany), +4.6% (China), +2.2% (Australia), +1.9% (Japan), +1.7% (USA), to -0.6% (Russia).


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for a third consecutive month, settling +492pts (1.7%) to 25812. However, the June close was still below the monthly 10MA, with a distinctly spiky June candle from an intra high of 27580. Momentum remains deeply negative, and will remain so until at least early 2021.


Germany – DAX


The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw its market climb for a third month, settling +717pts (6.2%) to 12301. The first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


Japan – Nikkei


A third month higher, settling +410pts (1.9%) to 22288, the first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


Brazil – Bovespa


The Brazilian market lead global equities upward, a third consecutive monthly gain, settling +7653 (8.8%) to 95055. Settling under the 10MA for a fifth month.


Russia - RTSI


Russian equities continued to struggle, settling -7pts (0.1%) to 1212. The intra month high of 1306 was notably just shy of the 10MA. I would note the key 1200 price threshold.


India – SENSEX


Indian equities climbed for the second month of three, settling +2491pts (7.7%) to 34915, but still under the 10MA.


China – Shanghai comp'


The Chinese market settled +132pts (4.6%) to 2984, the first monthly settlement above the 10MA since January.


South Africa – Dow


The second monthly gain of three, settling +129pts (8.6%) to 1632, but still under the 10MA.


Hong Kong – Hang Seng


The second monthly gain of three, settling +1465pts (6.4%) to 24427. The June high of 25303 was notably just shy of the 10MA.


Australia – AORD


Australian equities recovered for a third consecutive month, settling +129pts (2.2%) to 6001, although that was still below the key 10MA.



Summary

Nine world equity markets settled net higher for June, with one net lower.

Brazil and South Africa lead the way higher, with the USA and Russia trailing.

Three markets - Germany, Japan, and China, settled above their respective monthly 10MA.
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Looking ahead

A relatively light week, ahead of Q2 earnings which will begin with the financials on July 14th.

Earnings:

M -
T - LEVI, PAYX
W - BBBY
T - DAL, WBA
F - INFY
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Econ-data:

M - PMI/ISM serv'
T - JOLTS
W - EIA Pet', consumer credit
T - Weekly jobs, wholesale invent', Fed bal' sheet
F - PPI
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Final note

It was a bullish month for almost all world markets, but most remain mid/long term broken from their Jan/Feb' highs.

The US market itself is very mixed. The Nasdaq comp' and SPX saw bullish monthly settlements above their 10MA, but the Dow, Transports, and NYSE comp' all settled below key supports. Further, even the SPX June candle was distinctly spiky from 3233, and indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion.

A foray to the mid/low sp'2800s still appears a threat, but even if that is seen, I'd have to expect July (and subsequent months) to settle >3K. To be clear, with the Nasdaq comp' breaking a new historic high, just this past Thursday, the bears have nothing to tout unless a monthly settlement back under sp'3K.

The uncertainty of an election can be expected to be an increasing pressure on the US market. Yet, its pretty clear another stimulus bill is on the table, with the fed ready to buy another few trillion of bonds. Ohh, and lets not forget their corp' bond buying program, with the fed now (financially) in bed with almost everyone, from Comcast, Microsoft, to even the gold miner of Newmont!

Whilst you could argue we have 'sleepy summer doldrums' ahead, I'd expect things to remain pretty wild. Just imagine how twisted and bizarre life will have become by this November/December... in the twilight zone.

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Enjoy the holiday weekend!
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.