With US equity indexes closing significantly lower, the VIX was naturally on the rise, settling +8.1% @ 24.15. Near term outlook offers a little lower to the sp'1870/68 zone, and that will likely equate to VIX 25/26s. If sp'1940s, VIX will likely lose the 20 threshold.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add.... VIX moderately higher, but still looks set for lose the 20 threshold later this week.
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*equity bears should be mindful that if equities open moderately lower at the Tuesday open, VIX will likely see an opening black-fail candle in the 25/26 zone. That will likely clarify a short term floor in equities.. with a probable reversal.
US equities closed significantly lower, sp -29pts @ 1877. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.9% and -2.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of early Tuesday weakness, at least to 1870/68, along with VIX 25/26s, before pushing upward into end month.
sp'15min
sp'60min
Summary
*Closing hour action: new intra low, as the hourly MACD cycle sees a bearish cross... as expected
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Last Friday I had noted the threat of an opening Monday gap lower.. we saw that.
The market built a micro bear flag in the afternoon, and that was certainly confirmed around 1.45pm.
There is clear support in the 1875/70 zone. Anyone still short.. now faces HIGH threat of renewed upside.
US equities are set to break a new intra low, with weakness into the close... and probably early Tuesday. The sp'1875/70 zone looks due.. along with VIX 25/26s. From there... renewed strength into end month, at least to the 1940s, with VIX <20.
sp'15min
sp'60min
Summary
*hourly equity cycle is set to see a MACD bearish cross in the closing hour, and that bodes strongly for the bears into early tomorrow.
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Market is behaving itself rather well.... consolidating/cooling from last Wed-Friday ramp.
Whether AAPL is the 'excuse' used for sp'1940s... difficult to say.
What isn't hard to say... we're still headed somewhat higher once the current down wave concludes.
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Price structure on the smaller 60/15min equity cycles remains a very small bear flag, offering the sp'1870s - with VIX 25/26s early tomorrow. Broadly though, further upside looks due into end month, at least to the 1940s.. with VIX <20.
sp'15min
VIX'60min
Summary
So.. a bear flag.. set to play out into the close.. and with likely further downside tomorrow morning.
A typical floor would be 11am tomorrow.... 1875/70.
In theory, from there, a straight forward 70pts UP.. at minimum
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US equities remain moderately weak, and are certainly not helped as Oil is -5.2% in the $30s. Equity price structure is offering a nano scale bear flag, with likely new lows into today's close. It would seem the sp'1870s are due - along with VIX 26s, before renewed upside.
sp'15min
VIX'60min
Summary
*am tired...
Suffice to add.. energy stocks are getting trashed.
The down grade of CAT ain't helping either... as serious concerns remain about the commodity collapse wave that began all the way back in spring 2011.
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US equities remain weak - with viable downside to sp'1870 (along with VIX 26s), but renewed upside looks due later this week... at least to the sp'1940s. With the USD moderately lower, metals are bouncing, Gold +$10, with Silver +1.3%.
sp'15min
VIX'60min
Summary
Little to add.
sp'1870s would likely equate to VIX 26s. Right now, that seems more probable early tomorrow, than later today.
So.. weakness into early Tuesday.. then UP for rest of the week.
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*notable weakness... CAT, -3% in the $58s, but I'll try to cover that one later.
US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp -11pts @ 1895. There is short term threat of VIX 26s before equities can rally again, but in any case.. the sp'1940/70s look a relatively easy target, not least if AAPL earnings (Tuesday AH) give hope to the mainstream that 'everything is fine again'.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So... fill the VIX gap... and then up again.
It will probably be that.
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Here in London city...
Simply lousy... with the remnants of the US snow storm on their way here, not that I'll see snow.
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US equities open a little lower, as the market appears needing at least a little time to consolidate the hyper-ramp gains from sp'1812 to 1908. With the USD -0.3% in the DXY 99.20s, the metals are naturally higher, Gold +$8, with Silver +1.1%. Oil is -3.6%.. around the $31 threshold.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*note the VIX gap zone..up to 26.50. More often than not, those get filled very early.
VIX 26.50 would likely equate to sp'1880/75.
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So... we're a little weak... and even if things unravel across today, a broader bounce still looks VERY probable.
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AAPL has earnings at the Tuesday close...
The $105/107s look a relatively easy target. Mainstream would likely use that an excuse for further upside to sp'1940/70 zone.
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Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 1901. USD is -0.2% in the DXY 99.40s. Metals continue to bounce, Gold +$6, with Silver +1.3%. Oil is cooling from last weeks hyper gains, -3.4% in the $31s.
sp'60min
Summary
As the hourly cycle was warning about last Friday afternoon, we're set to open the week on the downside.
Broadly though, the market should see gains across much of this week... certainly to the 1940s. Considering how crazy this market often is, the 1970s look viable, but perhaps that will take a few weeks.
In any case, mid term outlook is clear.
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Update from Oscar
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Pento
As ever, make of that, what you will.
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Overnight action..
Japan: choppy, +0.9% in the 17100s
China: choppy, +0.7% @ 2938, a long way from broken support of the 3400s.
Germany: very minor chop, currently +2pts @ 9767
