Volatility climbs into the weekend

With equities seeing the first significant downside action since late January, the VIX finally showed some upside power, settling +8.3% @ 15.30. Near term outlook offers a brief foray into the 16s... 17s now look difficult. The big 20 threshold looks very unlikely in the current up cycle.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*across the week, the VIX gained a rather significant 13.9%, and broke the downward run.
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Not much to add... VIX is getting close to maxing out in the 16/17 zone. Certainly, I can't see the market trading <sp'2050... and if we go no lower.. then VIX sure ain't breaking into the 20s.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -29pts @ 2071 (intra low 2067). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.1% and - 1.4% respectively. Original downside target is about to hit, and it would seem highly unlikely that the market will see any sustained action <2050 in the near term.


sp'60min

Summary

... and another week comes to a close.

Without question... finally some decent downside price action, and it is waking up many who have fallen asleep across the last few weeks.

I've really battled hard to post every hour this week.. hope some of it has been at least helping to keep some of you awake!

Have a good weekend everyone  :)
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A full set of updates across the evening... to wrap up the week

3pm update - rats selling into the weekend

US equities look set for the first significant net weekly decline in six weeks, with a viable close in the sp'2060s.. along with VIX 16s. Metals remain in collapse mode, Gold -$29. Oil has failed to hold the key $50 threshold, holding rather significant declines of -2.5%.


sp'weekly

VIX'daily3

Summary

*at best.. we might see VIX 17/18s next Monday... but that does look difficult. In any case.. we're close to target.
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So... a somewhat exciting end to the week... with some rather dynamic moves all over the place.

The original target of 2065 looks set to be hit.... and it could be by the close of today... if not.. then next Mon/Tuesday... at which point... .up we go again.

However, I just can't see this as anything other than a minor retrace... as was expected.
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Notable weakness: energy stocks, CHK, -4.9%, BTU -4.3%

miners, GDX -6.7%
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updates into the close...


3.09pm... a micro bounce to sp'2074... but really... look for the rats to sell in the closing 10 minutes... could be real fun.


3.38pm.. Rats are getting real twitchy... sp'2068.... VIX still relatively subdued.. and that is why I'm resigned to no lower than 2050 early next week.

The ECB QE-pomo train arrives next Monday morning................... bears.... beware!

2pm update - the entertainment continues

US equities remain very weak, with a weekly close now likely in the sp'2060s... where there are multiple aspects of support. VIX is naturally climbing, +12% in the mid 15s. The 16/17s look due. Metals remain in collapse mode, Gold -$32. Oil is sharply lower, -3.3%, having lost the $50 threshold.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

Somewhat fun huh?

We look set for a rather interesting net weekly decline.... settling in the 2060s.. with VIX 16s.

I certainly do NOT expect any sustained price action under 2050 next week.
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Notable weakness.. miners, GDX, -7.4%.... as the metals implode.
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2.41pm.. Its getting rather amusing now, Dow -280... sp' 2070..... rats are selling into the weekend

1pm update - headed for the 2060s

US equities remain broadly weak, and look set for a move to the sp'2060s.. whether at the weekly close.. or next Monday. VIX is finally showing a little upside power, +10% in the 15s. Metals remain in collapse mode, Gold -$30, with Silver, -2.5%. Oil is similarly weak, -2.4%


sp' daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

*price action in the metals remains thoroughly amusing... I can only imagine how some will still be vainly believing we won't yet test the giant $1000 gold threshold.
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So... the weakness continues... and market looks set for a classic instance of 'rats selling into the weekend'.

Best case for the bears... Dow -325/350... in the low 17800s... close to the 50dma.

VIX looks set to max out in the 16.50/17.00 zone.
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Notable weakness: miners, GDX -6.9%... as the metals implode.

12pm update - on track

US equities are increasingly weak, and with the jobs report out of the way.. the rats look set to be selling into the weekend. Primary target remains a natural fib retrace of 38%.... offering sp'2065 or so.. with VIX 16/17s. Metals remain sharply lower, Gold -$25. Oil is similarly weak, -1.9%.


sp'daily3

GLD, daily

Summary

A pretty entertaining end to the week, and its nice to see a fair few things 'behave' as expected.
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VIX update from Mr T.


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 time for lunch.. back at 1pm

11am update - broadly weak

US equities remain moderately weak... and look set for weakness into the weekly close. Primary downside remains sp'2060s, along with VIX 16/17s. Metals are in semi-collapse mode, Gold -$22, with Silver -2.2%. Oil remains weak, -1.8%... set for weekly close <$50


sp'daily3 - fib retrace

GDX, weekly

Summary

*with precious metals whacked lower, the miners are naturally getting smashed... GDX set to break the Nov' low... the $12/10 zone is very viable by late summer.
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Equities look weak.. and still look due to take out the Wed' low of 2087. 

Notable strength: BAC +3.5%

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time to shop... back soon!


11.20am.. BACK.. from a minor retail venture... and I see a break <2087... with VIX jumping into the 15s.

So... we're on track...

... time to cook !

10am update - bear flag... played out

US equities open moderately lower, and look set to take out the Wed' low of sp'2087... that will open the door to the target of sp'2065. VIX is not reflecting any real concern though.. stuck in the 14s. There is carnage in precious metals, Gold -$20, set to take out the $1130 Nov' low... within a month or two.


sp'60min

GLD,weekly3

Summary

*if I'm right on the Gold.... we'll take out the $1130 low soon... leading to $1000... perhaps 900/875 zone by late summer.. which will make for one hell of a buying level.
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So.. we're opening lower in equities... but again... its nothing significant. A break <2087 does look likely though, and I'm most certainly holding to the 2065 target... which is possible late today 'if' the rats sell into the weekend.
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Notable strength: BAC +3.6%... no doubt.. due to 'hopes' of a fed rate hike in June. The financials will be the leader across 2016/17.... before the next system blow up.

Weakness: miners, ETF of GDX -4.4%... not surprisingly... as Gold/Silver get whacked.
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*..and yes.. the USD continues to soar... +1.4% @ 97.60s.... the giant 100 threshold is due... as Euro implodes.. ahead of more money printing.
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10.32am... problem for the equity bears.. VIX, only +2%.... but all things considered... the sp'2060s still look due.

Gold miners continue to weaken, GDX -5.4%

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are broadly flat, we're set to open at sp'2101. Metals are a touch weak, Gold -$2. Oil is flat... holding the key $50 threshold.


sp'daily3 - fib retrace

Summary

*jobs data:  295k net gains, headline jobless rate: 5.5%
.
Clearly, well above market expectations.
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Unless market can quickly claw over sp'2110 or so... we'll surely slip back into the 2090s today.... and even have a chance at taking out the 2087 Wed' low.

As ever though...even a retrace to the 2060s is nothing for the bears to get excited about. Another wave higher to at least 2125/50 zone looks due by mid/late April.

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Notable early strength: BAC, +2.2%
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Have a good Friday, its almost the weekend!
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8.33am.... good jobs news is 'bad news'.... indexes turning red.

Metals snapping sharply lower, Gold -$12... breaking a new short term low...


8.38am... Indexes remain a touch red... the real action is in metals... Gold -$14... which is dragging down the miners, GDX -1.9%


8.54am.. sp -6pts.... so that is 2095.... just 8pts shy of the Wed' low.


9.07am... The news keeps on coming...

Dow index change:   AAPL in.....  to replace  T.. at the March'18th close.

That is one way to help boost the Dow across the next few years, lol


9.26am... sp -12pts... 2089... 2pts to break the low...

Gold -$22... on its way to take out the key low of $1130....  Gold bugs feeling the wrath!

Happy Anniversary

Friday will see the sixth anniversary of the 2008/09 collapse wave low of sp'666. Across roughly 1500 trading days, we've seen a hyper-ramp of 217.9% to a new historic high of 2119. It would seem that regardless of any significant summer correction, there are far higher levels to come.


sp'monthly3c - bare bones

Summary

I guess I could post a hundred other charts, but I think the one above is most appropriate.

No technical levels... not much of anything.. just 'rainbow' candles (Elder Impulse), with an arithmetic scale... displaying far more powerfully the ramp since the key break above the double top of 2000/2007.

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Key fib levels... ahead

Regardless of any 'summer swoon'.... a brief reminder of the fib extrap' levels that will be within range by late 2017.

sp'monthly5b

I realise the notion of sp'4k... or 5k would be considered 'crazy talk' by most, but hey... I'd refer anyone to the actions that the ECB is set to begin next Monday morning.
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Looking ahead

Friday will be mostly about the jobs data... market is seeking net gains of 230k, with a headline jobless rate of a slightly lower 5.6%. There is the threat of a miss, and anything under 200k would be an excuse for Mr Market to sell lower. Although of course.. maybe it could be a case of 'bad news is good news'?

*there is also intl' trade and consumer data, but frankly... few care about those data points these days.
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Video bonus... a flashback to March 6th, 2009



Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2101. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook still offers the sp'2060s, along with VIX 17s. Broader trend remains powerfully bullish though, with viable upside to the 2150/2250 zone by early summer.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Suffice to add.... market remains broadly in chop mode... having ramped 7% since early February. A natural retrace to the 50dma on most indexes would still seem the natural outcome in the near term.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...