Lets take our regular look at six of the US indexes
sp'500
The sp' saw net weekly gains of a significant 2.3%. This weeks candle was pretty strong, and confirms the spike-floor from last week. A break to new historic highs, will fully confirm further upside into mid/late March.
Upper bol' on the weekly is offering 1874, and by mid March, that will probably be in the 1890/1910 area. It is probably useful to keep in mind that the even more important monthly charts are already offering 1901, and that will jump to 1925/50 when March begins.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is still negative, but has just started to tick higher. At the current rate, we'll go positive cycle in about 2-3 weeks.
Nasdaq Comp'
The tech' has already marginally broken the January high, and we're set for the 4300/4400s in March. Underlying MACD cycle is due to turn positive again in about 1-2 weeks.
Dow
The mighty Dow climbed 2.3%, with a weekly close 20pts above the 10MA of 16134. The Dec' high of 16588 will likely be surpassed by mid March. Breaking 17k though, looks to be 'difficult'.
NYSE Comp'
The master index looks very similar to the Dow. Upside to 10500/750 by late March. The 11000s now look slightly out of reach in the current multi-month ramp.
R2K
The second market leader, the R2k, closed a very significant 2.9% higher, with an important weekly close above the 10MA of 1144. The 1200s look likely, but the 1300s now look too high to reach this spring.
Trans
The old leader - Trans, is lagging, with a net weekly gain of just 0.9%. However, we now have 3 consecutive weekly candles, each with reasonable spike-floors. Upside looks to be 7700/7800 by late March. The 8000s, appear out of range.
Summary
More important than anything, we have weekly candles that confirm last weeks spike-floor. There is a very high likelihood that we will see another 2-3 up candles, before we might get stuck again.
I'm highly suspicious that the FOMC of March'19 could be another key market turn. It is now pretty safe to assume that the Fed will announce taper'3, where monthly QE will be reduced to 'only' $55bn a month - which of course is still a huge annualised total of $650bn.
Looking ahead
We start the shortened week on Tuesday with Empire state manu' survey, and some housing data.
More importantly, Wed' has housing starts, PPI, and the FOMC minutes. No doubt Mr Market will be curious as to what the Fed officials have been saying. There are also two officials on the loose, and as always, their comments might move the market a little.
Thursday has a quartet of data points, Jobs, CPI, Phil' Fed, and leading indicators. The week concludes with home sales and Fed official Bullard.
*there is sig' QE-pomo: Tue $3-5bn, Thur $2-3bn
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Looking forward to the late spring
For the regular readers out there, you can already guess what I'm about to say. Last summer, with the market holding the mid 1500s, I threw in the bearish towel..I waved a giant white flag of capitulation, and I've been waving the white flag for 8 full months.
As I said at the time, 'broad upside into spring 2014'. Well, we're almost there. The next 'big short' opportunity is probably no more than 4-6 weeks away. The following should clarify my broader outlook...
sp'monthly6c
We've already seen some interesting 'little trembles' in market land, with two major daily declines of sp' -38 and -40pts, with the VIX spiking in the 21s - almost breaking last years high. Lets see if the bull maniacs can push this market higher for another month or so, only to get stuck, and then begin the first major decline since summer 2011.
Back at the Tuesday open (although I might post a few sporadic bits and pieces on Monday).
