With equities closing moderately higher, the VIX remained in cooling mode, settling -5.3% @ 21.35 (intra low 21.09). Near term outlook offers threat of a brief post-FOMC sell down to the sp'1960s, but broadly... the 2040s still look due.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*VIX opex was today.. so now Oct' is front month.
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Little to add.
Regardless of any brief sell down after the FOMC announcement, equities still look set to push into the sp'2000s... and VIX will surely lose the 20 threshold.
*I will look to pick up a VIX-long position (more likely, early next week), preferably in the 17/15 zone.
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US equities closed moderately higher, sp +17pts @ 1995 (intra high 1997). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a brief post-FOMC sell down to the 1960s, but broadly... the 2040s still look due.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour: continued upside... as the bears are short-stopped out.
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Well... another rough day for those still resolutely holding short. I do sympathise.
Tomorrow will be a key day of course... but more on that later...
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I am on the sidelines, having dropped USO-long from $15.40. I'm very content with things... having battled damn hard to trade the long side since Aug'24th.
US equities look set to close in the sp'1995/85 zone, with VIX 22/21s. USD remains moderately weak, -0.3% in the DXY 95.30s, which is helping commodities - Gold +$13. Oil +5.0% in the $47/46s.
sp'60min
USO'15min
Summary
*as at the Thursday close.. there is viable downside to 1960.. without breaking rising trend/bear flag
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Market will likely remain in minor chop mode into tomorrow afternoon.
I remain of the view that regardless of decision.. the market will rally (and that doesn't negate the threat of an initial sell down).
I have little interest to launch any market shorts until next week.
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I continue to have eyes on picking up USO again.. but unless 15.10/00.. I'll leave it alone... and wait for a market top in the sp'2040s or so.
US equities are cooling a little.... and more notably... Oil... although the USD remains -0.4% in the DXY 95.20s. Broadly.. the US market looks set for the sp'2000s... with Oil set to test the big $50 threshold. Any daily closes >$50 would open the door to at least 53/55... next week.
USO'15min
sp'15min
Summary
... if the mood takes me... I've an order already set for USO... but like before.. it would be a micro position.
From a trading perspective.. having broken above resistance.. Oil looks fine into next week.
Unless USO in the 15.10/00 zone... I ain't interested...
US equities are continuing to build gains, with the sp' fractionally breaking the Aug'28th high of 1993. The big 2000 threshold is clearly viable in the immediate term.. where no doubt.. a truck load of short-stops lay. Indeed, the 2050/70 zone remains 'best bull case' into next week.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
*note the daily lower bollinger on the VIX.. now in the 15.50s.. and rising each day.
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Clearly, the sp' 2K threshold is now viable in the immediate term, and regardless of when its hit.. it should be clear to most. .we're likely headed to either the 50... or 200dma.. in the 2040/70s.
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*I am on the sidelines. Unless oil cools 1-2%... I'm not likely getting involved in the remainder of this up wave from sp'1867.
Instead, I am merely considering my short-side targets... with min' target of sp'1900 by mid Oct'.
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US equities remain moderately higher, with a likely days high of sp'1990.. along with VIX 21.19. A minor down cycle into the afternoon looks probable. Meanwhile.. Oil has seen rather powerful gains.. along with the metals, as the USD is cooling ahead of the FOMC.
sp'60min
Summary
So... we've taken out 1988.. now just 1993.. but that seems more probable tomorrow afternoon.
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*I EXITED USO-long from $15.40.. a nice 21% gain.. although it took a full week.. a few days longer than expected.
I would consider another USO long from the $15.10/00s this afternoon. Broadly, the 16s remain an initial target... 17s are viable by middle of next week.
If the latter is correct.. it'd suggest equities will hold together at least into next Tue/Wed.
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VIX update from Mr T.
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time for tea... on what is a rather good day in the London bunker.
US equities are in minor chop mode, with the sp' likely to remain stuck in the 1990/70 zone until Thursday afternoon. With the USD cooling, -0.4% in the DXY 95.20s, commodities are seeing some upward pressure, Gold +$14, whilst Oil is +3.2% in the $46s.
GLD, daily
USO, 60min
Summary
*with the Oil inventories coming in -2.1 million, Oil looks on track... there is viable upside into next week.
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Little to note.
Today should be considered a 'quiet day' before a likely busy Thursday.. so I'm taking it slow.
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stay tuned
11.18am.. EXITED USO-long from $15.40 ...
5min
...very pleased.. on what is a hyper climb this hour
US equities open a little higher into the sp'1980s, as the FOMC begin their two day meeting. VIX has seen its Sept' opex.. with the VIX opening at 22.57.. but already cooling to the 21s. There is continued weakness in the VIX instruments, with TVIX -7%... on top of the -19% Tue' decline... pure horror.
sp'60min
TVIX, daily
Summary
*most Oct' VIX calls are lower by around -15%... and I've eyes on them.. but there is NO hurry until sp'2000s
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So... opening gains, but I'm not looking for much today in equities.. we are increasingly likely to enter a holding pattern ahead of the Fed.
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notable strength... Oil
USO'60min
A clear break... with the EIA oil report at 10.30am.... the 16.00s look viable by late tomorrow. I'm not sure if I want to hold until then.
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notable weakness, DIS -0.4% in the $102.90s... again.. its struggling.
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10.31am Oil inventories, -2.1 million... broadly inline with the API.
Oil cools a little, but still.. it has achieved a break
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time for an early lunch... back soon
Good morning. Equity futures are broadly flat, we're set to open at sp'1978. The USD is a little higher, +0.2% in the DXY 95.70s. Metals are trying to rally, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is +1.4% in the $45s... ahead of the latest EIA report.
sp'60min
Summary
The FOMC meet today... but the announcement is not until tomorrow at 2pm. I suppose there is always threat of a leak.... or just an old school rumour that someone knows.
In any case, I remain of the view that the market will ramp.. regardless of decision. From a technical perspective, this market looks set for the sp'2000s... probably 2040 or so... before next rollover.
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Update from Oscar
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Stockman
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Overnight China action: For almost 95% of the day.. China was in moderate chop mode.. but then exploded higher into the close. The Shanghai comp' settled +4.9% @ 3152. Further upside to the 3400/500s looks due... before the 2500/2000 zone.
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Yours truly is somewhat focused on Oil. The Tuesday API report showed a net draw down... if the EIA report shows anything -3 million barrels or more... Oil should break into the $46s... and keep going into the weekly close.
USO, 60min
*in pre-market, USO is +1.4% @ $14.78. I'd like an exit >15.50 or so, 16s would be great... but clearly, that is not viable until tomorrow... or more likely Friday/early next week.
Have a good Wednesday
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8.31am.. CPI data: -0.1% m/m 0.2% y/y
Equities: sp +2pts... 1980
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notable early weakness, DIS, -0.4% @ $103.00
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Gold +$7.... Oil +2.0%... the EIA report (10.30am) will be rather important.
US equities continue to battle higher from the double floor of sp'1867, with the sp' settling +25pts @ 1978. Near term outlook offers further upside to around 2040/50. From there, things could get real interesting, with downside at least to the 1900 threshold.. if not the 1850/20 zone by mid October.
sp'weekly8b
Trans, weekly
Summary
*note the green candle on the Trans, which does negate the notion of a triangle on other indexes...
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A second blue candle on the sp'500 weekly 'rainbow' chart, further upside looks due.. at least to 2000/2010, but considering the smaller daily chart... upside to 2040/50 looks probable.
Best guess remains... 2040.. then the mid/low 1800s by mid Oct'.. which should equate to VIX 40/45.
*if VIX breaks the Aug 24'th high of 53.29 at ANY point, it would likely bode for a crashy washout in the 1750/25 zone.
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Looking ahead
Wed' will see CPI, housing market index, and the latest EIA oil report.
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US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +25pts @ 1978 (intra
high 1983). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.8% and 1.1%
respectively. Near term outlook is for continued gains, at least to
2000/2010, but with almost equally viable 2040/50s.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
*the 'old leader' - Trans, looks set for the 8300s.. before maxing out.... from there.. the 7000 threshold will be primary target.
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Suffice to add, market continues to broadly climb from the double floor of sp'1867.
