Friday 8 February 2013

Closing Brief

Another week for the bulls, which makes a running total of six, from sp'1398 to 1518. Pretty incredible, but then the Fed is throwing 45bn a month at the primary dealers..who are no doubt leveraging up at least some of those monies into equities. Who can blame them, whilst the trend is UP.



Once again, the case where we see an opening gap higher..and then the market flat lines, like a terminally ill patient on life support. What a great year this is already turning out to be!

Well, that's it for this week.

Have a...calm (and bullish) weekend.

*there will probably be a weekend posting, late Saturday, on the monthly US indexes

3pm update - another week to close

Another higher high..another higher low. The broad trend remains relentlessly higher. Zero sign of a plateau, zero sign that this rally will end. Ever.


VIX, weekly

Three black fail candles for the VIX, sums it up for the bears.


A fearless market, a market that is seeking the greatest rally of all time.

Even AAPL is up $10..the big $500 will be in reach next week, and'll start to see them touting a challenge of the 700s again..and beyond.

Besides, if bonds have no yield..and the Fed is going to print, why would you NOT be in equties?

back after the close

2pm update - 4 hours of nothing

As has often been the case in most opening ramps...the market is exhausted within 30 minutes..and is now flat lining. The fact NYC is shutting down due to the anticipated blizzards is only aiding to keep things...muted.




So, the hourly cycles are getting toppy again. has been the case in EVERY little ramp, we see higher highs..and higher lows.

Relentless...with no sign of anything changing.

Next week...more POMO $ of course..and its valentines. That has to be good for another 15/20pts, yes?

1pm update - metals still weak

The metals continue to fail to participate in the broader market rally. Both silver and gold are still holding within a giant bull flag from the highs of sept'2012. Near term downside..likely..before a major late spring ramp.

SLV, daily

GLD, daily


Whilst the indexes remain in melt mode, I thought I'd highlight the metals, which might see further weakness next week - regardless of what the main market does.

First soft target for SLV is 29.75

Weekly charts are suggestive of 28.50

If the USD slips to the 75/74 level, I'd have to believe the metals will see a major ramp, after the current wave ends.

12pm update - utter bear failure

Six solid weeks of failure for those on the bearish side. A major ramp from 1398 to 1518, 120ts, thats eight percent! Yet, even worse, there is simply no sign of a turn lower.



Why can't we just keep going?

sp'1600s in March...the 1700s by early summer?

Why not? We have the POMO dollars, the algo-bolt melt, and the cheer leaders in the mainstream, ALL touting that the world economy is 'continuing to recover'.

Crazy times, and they look set to broadly continue for many months..if not years.

time for lunch

11am update - no sign of it ending

Another new high..and there remains no sign of this ramp ending. With the move to1518, that's a good 120pts in a mere 6 trading weeks. Only another 482pts until the big 2000. Dollar is a touch weaker, with the metals a touch higher.




The failure of the VIX to even hit the 15s is a real sign of the sheer power of this rally. Single digit VIX seems a very real likelihood by the late spring..when those green shoots will be covering everything.

For the 'its a wedge' crowd, I guess they're still hanging on, but really, they need to spend a few hours staring at those Transports/Rus'2000 monthly charts.

Ohh, and then there is the matter of the POMO $.

10am update - new highs

Good morning. The main market is slightly higher, and we've already just broken a new high on the sp'. As things are, there remains no sign of any turn lower..indeed..quite the opposite. VIX is 4% lower, and back in the 12s.




A lousy start for the bears, weak dollar, VIX in the 12s, and the SP' at a new post 2009 high.

The day couldn't start any more bullish.

Still waiting for a little wave lower

The US markets remain incredibly strong. Today was a classic instance, with opening moderate declines, but those were reduced by two thirds, with the usual latter day ramp. There remain many bears seeking a wave lower, but they need a daily close in the low 1490s to have any hopes of testing key rising channel support in the sp'1460/50s

sp'60min - retracement, fib levels

sp'weekly, 2yr

WTIC Oil, daily


From the bearish perspective, its been six weeks of utter frustration, pain - not least financially, and a lot of utterly tedious algo-bot melt.

Its been a pretty choppy week, and it seems to have confused..and whipsawed even a few of the more balance pros - again, I will dare cite Oscar Carboni.

Clearly, we're going to get a moderate wave lower at some point, but it remains unclear how many days..weeks..or even months that might first need to elapse.

WTIC Oil - slipping lower

We've broken the near term steep uptrend, and a move down to around 93/92 seems likely, before we ramp higher into March. At this point, it seems extremely unlikely we'll see WTIC in the 80s for some months.

Strong support a mere 3% lower

The sp'weekly chart offers clear rising support in the sp'1460/50 zone. A move <1450 seems exceptionally unlikely on a 3 month outlook.

It disturbs me just to consider it, never mind note it for thousands of others to read, but it looks like we'll doubtless test the 2007 high of sp'1576 this April/May. Whether we can break into the 1600s, before a 'mid-size' pull back of 10-15%, that's the only issue I'm now keeping in mind.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

A red close for the indexes, but well above the morning lows, and in many ways, it almost felt like another up day. Bears still utterly unable to hold the market from its usual latter day recovery ramp. Incredible underlying strength, no doubt fuelled by POMO $, and aided by both the HFT algo-bots and those infamous cheer leaders.

IWM, daily




So...we closed a little lower, and even broke below sp'1500 for a few hours, but its simply no good.

The bears are still powerless, and the market still ramps each afternoon.

It has to be asked, why does anyone seriously expect this to change any time soon?

Even a multi-day 3% decline to the rising support around sp'1460/50s still looks like a very difficult target to hit.

A little more later.