Friday 20 March 2020

Quad-opex depression

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -104pts (4.3%) at 2304. Nasdaq comp' -3.8%. Dow -4.5%. The Transports settled -3.4%. Near term outlook offers a marginal lower low <sp'2280.




US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains quickly faded to moderate declines. The morning saw another swing higher.

Next week's weekly jobless claims (due Thursday' 8.30am EDT) won't be pretty...

Goldman Sachs are expecting a gain in claims of around 2.25M, which would be 3x the highest ever seen. Clearly, the next ADP and BLS data due April 1st and 3rd respectively, will be equally 'historic'.

Further, GS are calling for Q2 GDP -24% (not a typo), with a Q3 rebound to +12%, and +10% in Q4. The latter are perhaps overly optimistic. Regardless, April-June is beyond 'great depression', as the US/global economy grinds to a halt.


Ricky Sander was wheeled out onto CNBC again...
Sandler noted.... "Vegas is gonna be raging in the fall" 

Continuing with... "... but I promise you, they're going back on cruises, Royal Caribbean is going back to $100 a share"...

I will merely note, Sandler is arguably 'overly optimistic', and would agree with Josh Brown, and would "... take the other side". 

Along with an advert from Interactive Brokers offering me $10M in margin, Sandler partly inspired the following poll...

Yours truly would have absolutely picked $10M of hand sanitizer.

The afternoon saw increasing equity weakness, as the Corona headlines just kept on coming. Despite an ugly closing hour to sp'2295, volatility cooled, with the VIX settling -8.3% at 66.04. The s/t outlook threatens further cooling under sp'2280, before finding a key s/t floor, and hyper spiking. A subsequent multi-week/month rally could be expected to 2900/3000.

First day of spring

Moody skies, in the city of Corona
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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