Volatility remains relatively low

Despite equities being somewhat weak across the day, the VIX never really showed much upside kick, only managing an intraday peak of 13.90, and settling +3.8% @ 13.80. Near term outlook is for a renewed push higher in equities, which should equate to VIX 12/11s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Considering the index declines - notably, -1.6% in the R2K, and -0.9% in the sp'500, the VIX was particularly weak. The daily net VIX gain of barely 4% does NOT support the equity bears case for major downside in the remainder of the weak.

Certainly, the daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle on the VIX is turning upward, but taken with the equity price action, I'm still not able to take the downside case seriously.

Equity bears need to take out the Monday low of 1866, last Monday's low of 1850...and even more critical...the 1814 low from a few weeks ago. Unless all of that is achieved, it remains a case of 'ignore the minor chop..and focus on the primary trend'...which does STILL remain to the upside.

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more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed weak, sp -16pts @ 1867. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -1.6% respectively. Despite the daily declines, near term outlook is for a renewed push higher, into the 1890/1900s by end of the week, to be 'inspired' by Yellen.


sp'60min

Summary

*the significant fall in the R2K is a problem for the bulls, but so far..it is still holding the recent lows.
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Price action just does not favour the bears in my view. The VIX remains relatively low, and despite today's equity weakness, the VIX only gained 3-4%...which barely rates at 'moderate gains' 
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With Yellen due to speak to the US congress tomorrow morning, unless she says something particularly stupid, the market will likely spin it as 'happy talk', and rally on it.

Certainly, from a pure cyclical perspective, the 15/60min index cycles are all primed for significant upside.

Do I sound like a permabull?  Urghh.
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more later...on the VIX

3pm update - minor chop into the close

Equities saw an extra little wave of weakness this afternoon, breaking the sp'1870 level, but still holding above the Monday low of 1866.The CEO of Print Central is due to speak to the US congress tomorrow, and it will be a prime opportunity for the market to rally..and break new highs.


sp'60min

Summary

A difficult day to get into...despite the general moderate weakness across the day.
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*I remain long, and awaiting earnings from CHK and RIG..both due tomorrow.
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3.12pm.. bullish hammer on the 15min charts...bears....beware!

The setup..ahead of the Yellen really favours the equity bulls.


3.17pm... market looks fine to rally all the way into the close...1875/77...look viable...with the 1890/1900s..tomorrow..or Thursday.


3.30pm.. minor chop...and a daily close in the 1870s now looks reasonably secure.

Regardless of how we open...we won't be trading at these levels tomorrow...


3.39pm.. Mr Market wants to break UP UP UP....price action is NOT bearish.

What will be incredulous is seeing the doomer maniacs ZH attribute all manner of reason for the latter day rally into the close.

1871..and climbing....


3.44pm.. TWTR -17.5%...... the hilarity of it. 

Here is an idea, how about charging registered users $25 member fee per year? How does that sound? Maybe someone should tweet it?


3.53pm....continued weak chop....and flirting with the 1870 level......with TWTR still melting lower.

back at the close!

2pm update - VIX is not reflecting any concern

Whilst the Dow is -110pts or so, the VIX is up a mere 2%. Price action remains weak...but the equity bears are still not showing any real power, not least via the VIX. Barring a break <1866..and then 1850...along with VIX 15/16s..the current down wave is nothing to be taken seriously.


VIX'60min

Dow, daily

Summary

*yes, I will note the daily MACD cycles on the indexes look set to rollover within a day or two, but still...the VIX is saying 'no concern'.
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The smaller 5/15min cycles offering a turn/floor at 1870.

As ever....we shall see!


2.04pm... Okay, a break <1870..but still...price action sure isn't dynamic...

I'd merely see this as yet another chance for equity bears to bail ahead of the Yellen tomorrow.

1pm update - melt into the afternoon

US equities remain a touch weak, but indeed 'a touch' is all the bears are getting, with the sp'1890/1900s likely within the next two trading days. Metals are seeing minor mixed chop, with Gold -$3. Notable weakness remains in TWTR, as the original rats are permitted to sell.


sp'60min

TWTR, daily

Summary

*TWTR remains smashed lower, on rather huge volume. Who wants to catch that loss making falling knife?
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Little to add.
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Price action is simply the same old nonsense. Market is in a holding pattern until the Yellen appears, and then we'll almost certainly break to the upside.
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1.26pm minor weakness, back to the morning lows, but really....nothing has changed.

How are the bears even going to break <1866 ?

12pm update - weak equity bears

Equity bears are weak...oh so weak, and even the sp'1860s are now seemingly out of range. It remains a case of higher lows...all the bulls are missing is a new historic high >1897..and that certainly seems viable by late Thursday.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add. Things will only get interesting once Yellen is sitting in front of the US congress tomorrow morning.

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VIX update from Mr T



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time for lunch

11am update - minor chop

Once again the early morning declines are just the usual daily tease to the equity bears (will they ever learn?). Market looks set to churn sideways for today. The excuse for the sp'1890/1900s will likely be comments from Yellen, due tomorrow and Thursday.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

Opening black candle on the VIX...minor equity declines....just the same old early morning tease.

I sure ain't falling for it.
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11.34am.. minor chop....bears unable to break into the 1860s.....it seems merely a case of waiting for Yellen..and then the 1890/1900s.


back at 12pm

10am update - morning weakness

US equities see a little weakness to start the day, but then...isn't this how 'turnaround Tuesday' usually starts? The bears are just being teased, and market looks set to melt higher as the day proceeds. Notable weakness in Twitter (TWTR), lower by -9%, as the rats are allowed to cash out.


sp'60min

TWTR, daily

Summary

*I wonder how those who were chasing the momo stock that is Twitter are feeling lately? No doubt, many who bought in the 50s, 60s..even 70s.. are still holding out for a 'recovery rally'. The fact it never makes any money, never did concern those same buyers though.
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So..we're a little lower, but really, I can NOT take any of these opening declines seriously.

Just how can any of the doomer bears fall for this..day after day...after gods damn day?
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I remain long, and merely awaiting earnings from a few of my stocks....

stay tuned.

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*ohh, and anyone else notice..opening black-fail candle on the VIX. That is probably all anyone needs to know right now.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are flat, we're set to open at sp'1884. Equity bulls remain barely 1% from breaking new historic highs on the Dow, SP, and Transports. New highs seem far more probable - due to 'Yellen comments', Wed/Thursday.


sp'daily5

Summary

I'm not expecting much from today.

There is no QE of significance, and Mr Market will probably just churn sideways ahead of Yellen talking to the US Congress tomorrow.
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Meanwhile, in Permabull land...



So..Mr C' now seems unsure, rather than yesterdays bearishness. I don't get it..is he not looking at the weekly charts, which remain outright bullish? Hell, any bull could go long, with a stop around the Monday low of sp'1866.
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Have a good Tuesday.
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9.08am.. So.. watching clown finance TV.. and I notice the TWTR is -7%...on the lockup ending.

Well, last week, with the floor busted, there was obvious 'open air' down to the IPO issue price of $26, which seems a given at some point this summer, not least if the main market does roll over.
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Indexes a touch weak, but really...a day of nothing looms.
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9.42am.. minor down wave....it is a buying zone!

Bears have no downside power...and besides, the Yellen is tomorrow...who wants to be short ahead of her?

Rough start to the week

For those equity bears getting overly excited at the opening declines this morning, the daily close probably makes for one of the most annoying Monday's so far this year. The broader weekly trend remains to the upside, with the sp'1900s likely by late Thursday.


sp'weekly8b

Summary

*I should note that in early morning, the weekly 'rainbow' candle did briefly flip to blue..but with the reversal..we are back to the fourth consecutive green/bullish candle.
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Looking ahead

There really isn't much of note tomorrow. Market will have a prime opportunity to melt higher, although it will of course remain susceptible to any sporadic negative news from the Ukraine.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Friday.
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Some doom chatter from Hunter..with Casey



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Update from Gordon T Long - from late March, but only just publicly listed.



This video covers the Petro-dollar, and Nat'gas/Oil prices. For the macro-economists out there, it is pretty interesting
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I am trying... still

Yours truly had a difficult day, not even the sunshine helped. I anxiously await earnings (due Wednesday) in CHK and RIG. Problem is..as ever, even if the numbers are good, perhaps Mr Market will trash the stock anyway - as it did to Seagate (STX) last week.

I could do with at least two good days this week. I'm getting real tired of this again, and I ain't even short anything!

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw a pretty strong morning reversal, and the daily closing candles bode for new historic highs in the coming days (at least for the Dow, SP, Trans). The sp'500 closed +3pts @ 1884. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.2% respectively.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq

R2K

Summary

I will often note the importance of candle type, and today's closing candles were the pretty bullish 'spike-floor' type.

They bode for further upside...into the sp'1900s..later this week, probably to be 'inspired' by some Yellen chatter to the US Congress/Senate.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...