With the sp'500 breaking a new cycle floor of 1901, the VIX broke a fractional higher high of 27.39, but notably cooled into the close, settling -10.0% @ 24.30. Near term outlook offers an equity bounce into the FOMC of Jan'27th.. and that might equate to VIX in the 18/16 zone.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
With the sp' close of 1923, there is provisional clarity of a short term floor.
VIX is confirming this, via a very rapid cool down in the late afternoon, from the 27s to 24s.
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*I exited TVIX-long in the early morning... seeking to pick up again Jan 26/27th.
Seeking broadler VIX upside to the 30s, perhaps the 40s in February.
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US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 1923 (intra low 1901). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.4% respectively. There is high probability that the market has put in a short term floor, with viable upside into the next FOMC of Wed' Jan'27th. The 1990s remain best case for the equity bulls.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a test of the low @ 1905, but spiking to 1930... settling above the key 10MA
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Well, the closing hour offers very strong support that we've a short term floor from 1901.. with VIX 27s.
Now its a case of giving the market some days to battle to the 1970s.
*I'll have to give extra focus to the daily MACD cycles.. which could fail to break back above the zero threshold next week.
**to those who went long.... enjoy the ride. I'm content to just watch and wait for the next short opportunity.
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Another flashback to the 1980s...
How many times have I listened to this whilst going on the London underground transit system? A great many indeed.
US equities are offering a floor of sp'1901, with VIX having broken a fractionally higher high of 27.39. It would seem we have a floor. First upside target is 1970. If the market can rally into the next FOMC (as is often the case).. that is 11 trading days to hit the 1990s. Sustained action >2K..... no way.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Am kinda tired...
Suffice to add.... it would seem the 1920/00 zone will hold... with Fed official Lockhart having 'inspired' a rally to begin in the 2pm turn hour.
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A favourite of mine...
Bowie was a big part of my younger years, so many great tracks... impossible to call 'absolute beginners' my favourite... I can't say one song is any better than over a hundred others.
I sure feel somewhat older today.
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3.29pm.. A spike floor candle.... we have provisional confirm' of a floor from sp'1901... so... the 1970s are on their way.
3.34pm.. with VIX 24s.... there is no doubt now.
I was certainly overly twitchy on my exit this morning... but a gain is a gain.. so no whining from me.
The broader market is now significantly lower, with notable weakness in the second market leader - R2K, which has broken below the Oct'2014 low of 1040. Next support is the 1010/1000 zone. Broadly.. the 800s look due in the weeks/months ahead.
R2K, weekly
sp'60min
Summary
*thanks for the reminder on the R2K, from poster Hawkward. Hard to keep up with every index.. all of the time!
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So.. R2K is now confirming what the Transports did last August.
Consider that sp'500 was 1820 in Oct'2014.. with 1867 in Aug'2015.
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Yes... the fib' retrace/bounce targets will keep getting downgraded until 'morale improves'.. or something like that.
re: sp' hourly. Note the powerful resistance of the 10MA. Until we see a few candles over that.. there is no clarity of a bounce.
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Key issue...
Attempting to play bounces is fraught with problems as the bigger weekly/monthly cycles are outright bearish.
**Oil is imploding, with a new low of $30.88
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Sure I'm not short the market right now, but I ain't losing money trying to trade long from the 1920s, 10s, or lower. I'd rather wait for an equity bounce to play out. Right now.. that doesn't look likely to complete until well into next Tue/Wed'
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2.07pm.. ohh lookie... the Fed wheel out Lockhart....
.. market making another floor attempt.
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2.19pm... more I think about it... a rally/bounce into the next FOMC - Wed' Jan 27th would fit.
Not counting today... that'd offer 4, 4, 3... 11 total days for market to rally... and see the VIX cool back <20.
US equities remain weak, yet cyclically, we're still set for a sig' bounce.. at least to the sp'1975/80 zone. VIX has not confirmed the marginal equity lower low. Oil remains severely weak, -5.0% in the $31s. Copper is $1.97, the 1.75/50 zone looks an easy target for the spring.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I have not mentioned it today (and I'm guessing many have noticed it anyway), but despite a marginal new equity low... the VIX did NOT break a new cycle high.
.. and that does not bode well for equity bears who are intending to hold short the market across this week.
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Holding to outlook of an upside bounce... despite the current price action not looking so great.
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As for 'excuses', equity bears/VIX longs, can have NO excuse for any whining later this week if we're climbing into opex.
Friday was a valid time to exit.
This morning was a valid time to exit.
Right NOW is a valid time to exit.. or at the very least... tighten stops!
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1.15pm.. So much for 1913 holding..... with sp'1910.. VIX still not broken above the Friday high.
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notable strength: NFLX +1.8%...
US equities break a new cycle low of sp'1913, but the equity bears still look exhausted, and a sig' bounce looks due. Oil sure isn't helping market mood, having broken a new low of $31.55, next soft support is the $30 threshold, and then $25.. the latter of which looks a given.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*with a new low.. fib retrace/bounce adjusted
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Those equity bears bravely holding across the weekend have had a prime opportunity to exit this morning, as the hourly/daily cycles are threatening a bounce that could easily stretch into early next week.
First upside target is the 1975/80 zone. At best equity bulls might test the giant 2K threshold, but they will not break/hold above it.
The next trade should (in theory) be kinda straight forward.
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Here in London city...
Grey, chilly, kinda horrible, with threat of snow later this week. Is snow bullish or bearish for the UK economy?
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US equities are certainly not showing much upside kick, but neither do the bears look remotely able to break below the original target zone of sp'1920/00. A bounce to the 1980/90 zone looks probable... and that will at least take until Thursday.. if not into next week.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
It sure is choppy, and no... I'm not expecting a sig' net Monday gain.
However.. the situation doesn't look great for the bears, and I'm increasingly glad I made a run for the exit door.
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*I have ZERO interest in trying to trade the upside bounces. I realise some of you can... but I shall refrain from that. Instead, its sit back and wait...for the 1980/90 zone.
On no reasonable outlook does sustained price action >2K look possible.
To me.. an equity-index re-short (and/or long VIX) from the sp'1980/90 zone looks a no-brainer.
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11.01am... new cycle low of sp'1917.... but VIX remains negative.
Nothing has changed.. still expecting a bounce.
Anyone still short is arguably getting a bonus opportunity to close out... or at least tighten stops.
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meanwhile....
FCX, daily
Mr Market is clearly starting to consider that FCX might 'disappear'.
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11.08am.. sp'1913... VIX remains -2%.
Again, the risk still appears against the equity bears.. from a pure cyclical perspective.
.. and its typical floor time anyway. When are the buy programs going to start appearing?
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11.29am.. So.. marginal new low of 1913.51... but we're clearly exhausted in terms of downside.
Today was very likely a bonus opp' for bears to exit.. and wait for a sig' bounce.
From a pure cyclical perspective, equities are set to rally for a few days. Considering opex is this Friday, there is clear threat of the market battling at least to the 1980s. However, sustained action above the 2K threshold looks out of range.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I EXITED TVIX-long, as the micro 5/15 min cycles look highly vulnerable to turning lower.. as equities are threatening upside.. with VIX cooling back under the 20 threshold.
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A disappointing overnight session, with equities rebounding - despite China imploding by another -5%.
7 down days from the sp'2081 high.
3 days UP.. from 1918 looks probable. In any case.. 1980s look a serious threat, and I'm content to side step things.
Just so there is no misunderstanding...
I have ZERO interest in trying to trade any equity bounces. I'd rather sit back, and wait for a better short entry.
If the market resumes falling without me... so be it.
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With each minute of price action.. it sure doesn't look bullish... but neither does it merit being short... at least to me.
A moderate net daily gain looks probable.
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10.31am... Looks like Friday afternoon was the floor of this down wave @ 1918.
It'll be a tough battle to push upward - as weekly/monthly cycles are hugely bearish.. but we should get there.
Eyes on the VIX.. a daily close in the 24/23s looks possible now.
Good morning. US equity futures have swung from an overnight low - equiv' to sp -18pts @ 1904, to +7pts, we're set to open at 1929. Commodities remain broadly weak, with Copper losing the $2.00 threshold, whilst Oil is -0.8% in the $32s.
sp'60min
sp'daily3
Summary
*first soft resistance remains the hourly 10MA, which this morning will be in the 1940/35 zone.
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We're clearly seeing the first attempt to clarify that 1920/00 zone is a short term floor.
There is NO question though, broadly.. we're headed much lower in the weeks and months ahead. The sp'1650/1550 zone looks extremely probable by May/June.
For now... there is clearly threat that an overnight ES low is in at 1893.
If that is a low, then a 50% retrace of the down wave from 2081 offers the 2000/1999 threshold.
I'd argue it is overly risky a bounce to play.. as we might simply resume falling later today though.
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Best guess... the cash market to test the overnight low in the 1905/00 zone... and then a bounce into opex, and probably a week beyond. Sustained action above the monthly 10MA (2030s) and indeed, the sp'2K threshold looks out of range for at least EIGHT months.
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Update from Oscar
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Kirby
As ever, make of that, what you will. I still think the gold bugs are yet to capitulate... and the notion of a USD collapse is ludicrous. Would you rather hold Euros or Yen? Of course, in the minds of Gold bugs, we will all be shopping at Walmart with gold/silver coins in our pockets. There is higher probability of me winning the powerball each week for a year.
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Overnight action...
Japan: CLOSED
China: -5.3% @ 3016. A loss of 3K will confirm that the 2500s are coming... pretty soon.
Germany: currently +0.5% in the 9900s. Sustained action >10K looks unlikely for months.
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... and Bowie died this weekend :(
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Good wishes for the trading week ahead
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8.47am.. sp +10pts... 1932.
Indexes look vulnerable to turning red later today. For the moment, there is ZERO reason - other than technical, to expect a bounce.
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Oil remains a problem for the equity bulls... the loss of the $30 threshold looks a given.. just a matter of in this cycle.. or the next.
*the fact the market was unable to rally on 'good jobs news' remains a pretty bearish event.
... here comes Cramer...
9.06am Well, so far no one wants to buy the market above sp'1935 or so.
Oil is looking problematic, -1.3%.
9.40am... EXITED TVIX-long.... . I just don't like the smaller cycles setup... nevermind the overnight futures reversal.
