Whilst equities closed the week moderately higher, the VIX naturally cooled into the weekend, settling -4.8% @ 23.20. Near term outlook is for further equity upside to the sp'2000s, which should equate to VIX falling under the 20 threshold.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
*VIX saw a net weekly decline of -16.5%
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Suffice to add, VIX continues to cool from the hyper-spike of Aug 24'th.. and now looks set for sub 20s... if briefly.
Best guess.. VIX 18/17s.. then UP into October.
*I have no VIX position, will consider VIX-long after the FOMC is out of the way.
US equities settled moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 1961 (intra low 1939). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside into the FOMC, at least to the sp'2000/2010 zone, however there is risk of 2050/70.. before the next big rollover.
sp'60min
Summary
... and another crazy (if short) week comes to a close.
We've seen more powerful swings, from 1988 to 1927.
It is hard to guess where we will max out in the current cycle.. but what should be clear to most bears.. there is NO hurry to short this market. Lets see how high the bull maniacs can ramp this nonsense next week!
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*yours truly remains holding USO-long across the weekend... seeking to drop no later than next Wed'
Two profitable exits this week (AAPL, DIS)... adds to reserves for the big short.. after the FOMC.
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Have a good weekend everyone
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the trading day.
Regardless of the exact close, US equity indexes are set for significant net weekly gains, with the sp'500 higher by around 1.7%. Near term outlook remains bullish into the FOMC.. with the 2000/2010 zone highly probable. The only issue is whether the 2050/70 zone.. before rolling over.
sp'weekly1b
Summary
*I EXITED DIS-long from the $103.70s.. a minor gain of 9%... but for me.. that is fine. I prefer to close out into the weekend, not least for options trades.
I am merely left with USO-long, which despite Goldman Sachs causing trouble at the open, maintains a big bull flag. I'll hold across the weekend, seeking the 15.50/16.00s by lunch time Wed'.
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As for the market... little to add.
A quiet end to the week.. having put in another marginally higher low of sp'1939.
VIX looks like it will get knocked lower into the weekend.. 23s... maybe even 22s.
Equities have seen a touch of weakness, but still a clear 10pts above the morning low of sp'1939. A net daily gain still seems probable. Regardless of the exact close, most indexes are set for sig' net weekly gains, which certainly keeps the door open to further upside into the FOMC.
sp'60min
Summary
Little to add... on what is increasingly a quiet end to the week.
You could argue price structure is a bullish pennant on the hourly cycle... with the sp'1980/90s due by next Tue/Wed.
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*I remain long USO.. which despite a bearish open.. has recovered rather well... helped by the latest RIG count data (net weekly US decline -10)
Price structure for Oil (and most energy stocks) remains a bullish pennant/flag.. and USO should at least see renewed upside to the 16s within the near term.
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2.14pm.. EXITED DIS-long, from 103.70s.... minor gain (9%)
.. that just leaves me with USO... which I'll hold across into Monday, unless there is some bizarre spike higher into the 15.00s before the close.
Equity indexes have turned positive. with the sp'1939 morning low fading away. A daily close in the 1960s looks very viable, and would make for a net weekly gain of over 2%. VIX is naturally now a touch negative, and set for a weekly close in the 23s.
sp'60min
Summary
Yet another higher low.. now its just a case of breaking >1988.. then 1993.. and into the 2000s next week.
As many recognise.. there are a great many aspects of resistance from 2000 upward.
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I remain long DIS
DIS'60min
Daily cycle is offering the 106/108s by next Wed/Thursday, but I will likely drop DIS into today's close if the $104s are hit. I'd like to lighten up on the long side!
US equities have likely put in another marginally higher low of sp'1939, and we're set to see the main indexes turn positive this afternoon. Oil remains notably weak, -1.6%, but price structure is still a clear bull flag, and continues to offer another test of the $50 threshold next week.
sp'60min
USO, daily
Summary
*daily candle on USO is of the reversal type, and that IS a bull flag.
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Suffice to note... no change in outlook.
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VIX update from Mr P.
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Here in the city.. a somewhat murky end to the week...
Another market week coming to a close
Flying away into the weekend
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time to see what the cheerleaders are saying on clown finance TV, ch'1 (aka, CNBC)
.. I do especially look forward to seeing how they react in about 2-3 weeks time.
US equities remain a little weak, but just like yesterday, look set to turn positive, and settle net higher into the weekly close. Broadly, upside into the sp'2000s remains on track.. whether before.. or just after the FOMC announcement (regardless of rate decision).
sp'60min
Summary
A somewhat appropriate sombre morning in the US market.. but it does look like we'll see the indexes turn green within the next few hours.
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notable strength, DIS.. set for the $104s.. whether late today.. or Monday
60min
If I can get $103.75 or higher by late afternoon, I'll likely drop DIS into the close.
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re: Oil, yours truly is 'moderately' rattled in USO, but price structure remains a bull flag... and I'll hold into next week.
US equity indexes open a little weak, but price action is much like yesterday.. except arguably somewhat stronger (as seen on the daily cycles). Oil opens sharply lower, not least 'helped' by Goldman touting a $20 capitulation floor... but price structure remains in the short term is a bull flag... and a net daily gain remains possible.
sp'daily5
USO, daily
Summary
There is no reason to change the near/mid term outlook.
Market is set for sig' net weekly gains.. and I'd guess we do close today somewhat net higher.
Good morning. Equity futures are moderately lower, sp -10pts, we're set to open at 1942. With the USD +0.2% in the DXY 95.60s, commodities are under some pressure, Gold -$4, with Oil -1.8% - as Goldman tout WTIC $20.
sp'60min
Summary
*At the open, rising trend support will be around 1930... and 1935 at the close.
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So, we're set to open a little lower - much like yesterday. Hourly MACD cycles are offering upside as the day proceeds, and into next week
Best guess remains, market to break above the 1993 high... and into the 2000s next week.
If the Fed don't raise rates - which remains a very viable prospect, market would likely ramp on it (at least briefly).. to the 2050/70 zone. From there... I'll start building short positions.
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Update from Oscar
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Interest rate chatter from Jberni1
I rarely highlight this guy, but he does bring up some important issues.
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Overnight Asia action
Japan: -0.2% @ 18264.. more consolidation after the Wed' hyper gains.
China: +0.1% @ 3200... a day of relative calm to end the week. Outlook remains bullish to the 3500/600s.
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Have a good Friday
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9.40am.. Same as yesterday. Rising trend should hold.. and we're set to close positive.
I had eyes on QCOM at the open.. but frankly, I'm already more involved on the long side than I'd care to be.. .so I'll just sit back and wait.. holding DIS, USO.
A lot of opening (upside) reversal candles.. bears beware.
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Despite continued strong swings this week, US equity indexes look set for upside into the weekly close, and that should make for significant net weekly gains of 2% or so... somewhere in the sp'1960/70 zone. Broader price structure remains a clear bear flag though, and the bull maniacs face a real problem after the Fed is out of the way
sp'weekly1b
Summary
Little to add... after what has felt like a real battle this week.
Best guess remains... upside into the FOMC... 2010s.. at least... maybe 2050/70 zone.. and then things get interesting.
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Update from Walker
As ever, make of that.. what you will.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see Producer prices, consumer sentiment, and the US Treasury Budget.
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Another day of swings
It was yet another day where we saw some strong swings, not least in the closing hour. This market is set for continued volatility for some weeks, at least into early November. As ever, I'd prefer to close out for the weekend, and I'll likely drop DIS and/or USO, if they are at least moderately profitable.
US equities closed moderately higher, sp +10pts at 1952 (intra range
1937/65). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.4%
respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside into the
sp'2000s, the 2050/70 zone remains viable on a brief FOMC hyper-spike.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
*notable strength in the 'old leader', with viable upside to the 8300s next week.
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Suffice to note, moderate gains for the US market, as a rather fierce battle continues.
