Closing Brief

The main indexes closed a touch lower. It was another moderately higher week for most indexes, primary upward trend continues.  Perhaps most notable today was the fall in the USD, which might fall across much of next week.


sp'60min

Summary

For the bears, its been another weak of pain, but then, thats largely been the case for the last four years.

I still expect the market to complete a major multi-month wave by the end of next week. The big issue will be just how far down can we go in the next wave. I'm guessing it won't be much, and unless the Fed stops the POMO program, this market is headed for the 1700s..and 1800s by year end.

Have a good weekend

3pm update - chop to close the week

The main indexes remain slightly lower, but its clearly nothing significant. Considering its quad-opex, it simply remains the case that its highly improbable any clear move until next week. VIX is a touch higher, but its all minor noise still.


sp'60min

Summary

Little wave black 5' is very likely complete.

In which case, we might see a moderate Blue IV wave lower early Monday, before a final Blue'V' higher across Tue/Wednesday.

If thats correct, the bears can start to take positions in the latter part of next week.

back at the close

12pm update - Friday chop

As expected, the declines just can't hold, and the VIX looks like it could it close in the 10s. Near term count is suggestive that today will be a minor top, before a small decline, and then a greater top completing in the latter part of next week.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

A choppy opex, as expected, and with a big POMO, market should hold together into the close.
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No point in shorting the indexes until late next week.

back at 2pm

10am update - choppy quad opex

The main indexes are a touch lower, yet there really isn't any power on the downside. Most noticeable so far, a second day of weakness in the USD, and its broken the daily 10MA. A 1-2 week down cycle is quite probably now underway. Oil and the metals are moderately higher.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

A little mild chop to start the day, but again, its nothing the bears should get interested in.

VIX is +4%, but again, thats just noise, and we could still close red.

*I am still long SLV, but looking to drop later today in the 28.10s
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Another day...another high

The indexes closed higher yet again, with the VIX now looking like it'll be in the 10s within the next trading day or two. Primary trend remains higher, but we're unquestionably getting over-stretched, and the market is due a multi-week down cycle of at least 5-7%.


sp'monthy3, rainbow

sp'weekly4, rainbow, - hyper bullish scenario

Summary

Sp'1563 is a level that even most deluded bullish maniacs would hardly have seen as viable, even just a few months ago.  Yet, here we are, and the primary trend remains to the upside. There is simply NO sign of a turn..or levelling phase.
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The monthly chart is offering 1570/80s in the immediate term. 1600s look a little out of range, especially given the recent run up.


The 'disturbing' weekly4 chart

I will again highlight the 'hyper-bullish' chart which I am keeping in mind for the coming weeks..and months. Unless the Fed POMO program stops, I will be trading this very bullish outlook.

I am seeking the top of minor black iii, and then a multi-week down cycle - that might not complete until May. A basic fib retracement (from the November 2012 low of 1343 to 1563) offers the sp'1480/70s, and with the 1470s being the highs of the last big up cycle - Sept'2012, I am very much going to have that as my primary downside target.

I suppose 1450/25 is viable - and indeed there remains a big SPY/ES gap at the 1425 zone, but that just seems like too big of a move lower, whilst the Fed is still throwing 85bn a month at the financial markets.


Looking ahead

The market has four pieces of econ-data to digest tomorrow, but perhaps more importantly, its a quad-opex, and its a big POMO day.

Price action will likely be a bit more choppy than today, but still..the pressure should in theory be to the upside. We could very easily close the week in the 1570s.

*I will seriously consider a major index re-short towards the end of next week, but as ever, one day at a time.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes just keep on rising, lead by the Rus'2000 and the Transports. The sp' is now just 13pts shy of its Oct'2007 high of 1576. Near term trend remains upward, but the 'best guess' count suggest we are no more than 3-5 days from a multi-month top.


IWM

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

All those who have been shorting the indexes - and going long volatility, across this month have been seriously destroyed. Even worse, there is still NO sign of a turn/levelling phase.
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However, the near term count (see 60min charts) suggest we're getting real close to a top.

A decline from 1570/80s..down to at least the 1470s seems very viable by April/May.

Unless the Feds QE-POMO program is terminated, any such multi-week pull back will merely be another 'dip buying' opportunity.
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a little more later