Tuesday 28 February 2017

Starting the week subdued

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +2pts at 2369. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. VIX settled +5.4% at 12.09. Near term outlook offers high threat of a mid term 'euphoria' top... whether inspired via the SOTU, or the SNAP IPO. The wild card remains the energy sector... which is due renewed upside.




*notable new (if fractional) historic highs of sp'2371 and Dow 20851.

The week began on a relatively subdued note, as the equity bears remain powerless, but neither are the bulls especially confident enough to buy big ahead of the SOTU.

For now, VIX remains subdued in the sub-teens, but traders are increasingly picking up March/April call blocks, as some believe the market is close to a key short/mid term top. VIX clearly won't remain at these levels forever.

Something to watch tomorrow - as February comes to a close... can VIX see the 13s? We've not seen the teens at all this month.. which would be the first time since June 2014. Its notable that the following month saw VIX 17s... with a spike high of 31.06 in Oct'. For now though, even the key 20 threshold looks a stretch, even if the market retraces to around sp'2250 by early April.

Yours truly has been even more busy than usual lately, and is now trying to churn out reports on various sectors. I decided to start with a personal favourite... the Gold Miners.

For details see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/research-reports.html

Goodnight from London