Monday 15 July 2013

Volatility still decaying

With the main indexes clawing higher yet again, the VIX remains naturally weak, closing -0.4% @ 13.79. Even if the Bernanke 'moderately' upsets the market later this week, VIX 15s look difficult. VIX 20s in the mid-term look similarly difficult




There is little to note, other than it remains a fearless market.

No sign of any floor in the VIX.

Best guess..the current equity wave maxes out in early August, and that will probably equate to VIX in the 12s.

more later...on those bullish indexes

Closing Brief

A very quiet start to the week, with all the main indexes closing with moderate gains. The sp' close of 1682 is a mere 5pts shy of the May'22 high, and looks set to be broken tomorrow. Metals closed flat, whilst Oil saw a significant swing from -1% to close +0.4%.

sp'60min3 - broad outlook


There really isn't much to add, other than these are prime conditions for algo-bot melt.

There is little reason why Tuesday won't be another up day.

more later..on the VIX

3pm update - melt into the close

One of the quietest trading days in months..perhaps the year. There is no reason why the bots won't be able to melt this higher into the close. VIX is -2%, and struggling in the mid 13s. Oil is holding moderate gains of 0.4%, after early declines of 1.2%.



Very quiet day indeed...and these are simply prime conditions for algo-bot melt.

Unquestionably, anyone shorting the indexes into this plain crazy. There is NO sign of any turn..never mind the fact that consensus is for the mid sp'1700s anyway.

Yours...on the sidelines, and contemplating the weeks ahead

2pm update - time for another micro ramp

The smaller 5/15/60 minute index cycles are all arguably floored, and upside in the remaining two hours of the trading day looks likely. A close in the sp'1685/87 area is the target, and that will eaily offer the 1690/1700s tomorrow.



There are no doubt a LOT of short-stops in the 1685/90 area, and those will no doubt get taken out in the very near term. Bears...beware!

*I remain content to watch this nonsense from the sidelines. Oil remains an interesting trade, but...I'm just not in the mood to meddle in that today.

1pm update - sleepy market

Market looks like it is more than content to remain in 'sleepy summer' holiday mode. These are prime conditions for algo-bot melt, and a moderately higher close now looks likely, not least with the Trans/R2K both holding gains of around 0.55%

sp'60min3 - broad outlook


Many seem agreed we are within a large fifth wave higher, and that we are currently in sub'3.

It is entirely viable that sub'3 continues another week or two.

Trying to trade sub'4 on the arguably a stupid idea, I won't be doing it.

Best guess remains..a cycle peak in early August..and then once again I will be looking for a hit of the lower weekly bollinger (currently sp'1524..and rising)..although yes..I was aiming for the same style of decline in the recent 4 wave...and missed by 60pts.

VIX update from Mr T

stay tuned

12pm update - same old nonsense

Bears powerless..and thus the default trend continues, with the algo-bots having near ideal conditions for slow motion upward melt. Hourly index charts are offering the 1690s late today/early Tuesday. R2K and Transports both leading higher by around 0.5%


R2K, daily


What is there to say? Its a pretty dull Monday. Bears have no power, and thus its the usual melt.

There remains a chance of a small fall on Wed-Thur' when the Bernanke is speaking, but really, thats overly risky on the short-side, and I sure won't be part of that.

Oil is a touch lower, and certainly isn't attractive right now, daily Oil charts are actually looking moderately weak for a few more days.

Video from Hunter...with Denniger

Despite D' being rather annoying at times, he does excel in macro-economics.

Although I have to say, we've been hearing this kind of doomy chatter for some years now..and Mr Market simply doesn't care.

time for lunch

11am update - minor chop

The main indexes are largely flat, and its turning out to be a very quiet start to the week. Underlying pressure remains strongly to the upside though, and bears are utterly powerless. Oil is starting to slip again, after recovering back to flat (from -1.25%).



What remains clear more than anything...bears have NO  hope in the immediate term.

Despite Q2 GDP expectations consistently being revised lower, the market...just doesn't care.

..but all that matters. ...right?

ohh..and that reminds me...AMZN, when does that loss maker post its next loss making quarter?

10am update - daily charts looking tired

Despite the moderately higher open, the daily charts are looking really tired. Yet, underlying pressure remains significantly to the upside, not least on the weekly charts which are now offering the sp'1700s. Oil has strongly recovered from pre-market declines.




Very minor chop to start the week, although its notable that the R2K is +0.3% @ 1039.

For the bears..this remains a market to avoid.

*I remain on the sidelines...can't short this nonsense...way too risky. Neither is going long the indexes/Oil at current levels attractive.

Probably a day to just sit out.

stock of the day....

LEAP, daily

AT & T buying them a farewell to LEAP ! Call option chains are up 1000-5000% or so, but there is virtually no open interest above 10/12 anyway.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open @ 1683 - a mere 4pts from the recent high. Precious metals and Oil are both lower by around 1%, with the USD +0.25%  This week will again be largely about what the Bernanke has to say.



*Retail sales just came in a bit weak, +0.4%,. vs market expectations of 0.8%

There are business inventories @ 10am.

There might be a pull back later this week, but I don't expect it to be much, nor last for very long.

*I am on the sidelines, but will look to pick up an Oil-long position early this morning. There seems absolutely no point in attempting any short side positions for some weeks to come.

Good wishes for the trading week ahead!

Video update from Oscar...

No surprise that he is bullish...