Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
The sp' slipped around -0.7% this week, but the broader trend remains intact. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked higher for the ninth consecutive week, and there is simply nothing bearish here.
First key support is the 1900 threshold. Weekly charts will be offering the 1960s in FOMC week, and continue to rise around 9-12pts a week. The 2000s will be viable in mid July, although I still think the market will max out just short of that level.
Nasdaq Comp'
The tech' remains very close to breaking the multi-year high seen in early March. I expect the Nasdaq composite will break into the 4400/4500s by mid July.
Dow
The mighty Dow fell -148pts this week, but that only amounts to 0.9%..and certainly doesn't rate as 'significant'. There looks to be viable upside to the big 17000 level in FOMC week. Until the equity bears can take out the big 16k threshold, there is simply nothing bearish.
NYSE Comp'
The master index slipped just -0.4% this week, and looks set for the 11000s by mid July. Broader trend remains consistently to the upside, although we'll be due another multi-week down wave by late July.
R2K
The second market leader lost just -0.2% this week, and looks set for new historic highs into July. Despite getting stuck at what could be a right shoulder - of a very large H/S formation, I no longer consider that remaining bearish scenario viable.
R2K looks set for the 1190/1200 level in FOMC week, which will invalidate the H/S scenario. The 1225/50 zone looks viable by mid/late July, at which point I will be looking for another rollover.
Trans
The 'old leader' - Transports, was particularly hit hard this week, seeing a net weekly decline of a rather significant -2.0%. However, the trans has gained so much in recent months, this decline doesn't do anything to break the broader trend. There looks to be valid upside into the 8400/8500s by mid July.
Summary
So... net weekly declines (the first in at least 4 weeks) for all the US indexes, but in the scheme of things, the declines were very minor - aside from the Trans.
There really isn't much to add, other than.. barring a break of key levels (such as Dow 16k, sp'1900, R2K 1080), the broader upward trend continues.
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Looking ahead
The week begins with Empire state manu', indust' prod' and some housing data. Tuesday will see CPI and housing starts.
The big event though... the FOMC announcement of Wed', 2pm. Market is expecting QE-taper'5, taking monthly QE down to $35bn a month beginning in July. Yellen will host a press conf' around 2.30pm.
Thursday has jobless claims and phil' fed. The week concludes with a quad-opex, and we'll likely see some significant price chop. In the past few quarters, such an opex has favoured the equity bulls.
*there is sig' QE-pomo: Mon' & Thursday, both $2-3bn
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Permabear... long.
Yours truly is endeavouring to remain 'unbiased', if such a thing could remotely be possible for someone self-titled 'Permabear'. I am holding 3 positions, CHK, WFM, and an index long (IWM). I will most certainly seek to clear the decks before the FOMC announcement of next Wednesday.
Next week should offer opportunities for bulls... and bears alike. Hopefully, I'll be able to get a good exit out of my longs, and if we are trading in the sp'1960/70s, I'd even consider a very short term index short position.
back on Monday
