VIX pushing toward the upper teens

With US equity indexes seeing the first sig' net daily decline since late Sept', the VIX was naturally on the rise, settling +15.3% @ 16.52. Near term outlook offers the sp'2020s, which will likely equate to VIX in the 22/24 zone. Sustained action >25 looks highly unlikely for the remainder of the year.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX is set to claw higher, but really.. even a few daily closes in the low 20s will do little to negate the massive collapse since the late Aug' peak.

*I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX until late spring 2016.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -20pts @ 2078 (intra low 2068). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2020s, along with VIX in the low 20s. Sustained action <sp'2K looks out of range.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: renewed upside, a touch of cooling in the closing minutes, but price structure remains a clear bear flag.
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Suffice to add... the fourth consecutive net daily decline, with today being the first sig' decline since Sept'28th.

Further weakness to the 2020s looks very likely, but that will clearly take some days.. and probably drag into next week.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a probable close in the 2060s

US equities remain broadly weak, and considering current price action, further weakness into the close looks due, with a daily close in the 2065/60 zone.. where the 200dma is lurking. For the equity bears, it is a race.. the faster the decline.. the better opportunity for a hit of the 2020s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*price structure on the smaller 15/60min equity cycle is a baby bear flag.
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So.. we're going to get the fourth consecutive net daily decline for the sp'500.

Ohh the humanity, is it time for talk of QE4 to resume yet?
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Seriously though, the sp'2020s look on track, and unless you think the end of the world is due (in which case.. why bother trading anyway?)... another buying time will be fast approaching.

Eyes on the VIX, a daily close in the 17s would be useful, and offer 18/20 tomorrow.. with a break to the 2050/40s.
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back at the close...

2pm update - remaining weak

US equities remain significantly lower, with another minor down wave due before the close. A test of the 200dma (sp'2063) looks due tomorrow, opening the door to 2050/40s by the Friday close. A natural retrace to the 2020s looks more viable early next week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Its getting a little tiresome.

Browsing around... people getting overly excited either about the current net daily declines.. or the fact we've bounced from 2068 to 2075. Its all minor noise, and many seem lost amongst it.

The broader picture is all that really matters, and the US market put in a conclusive statement with the Oct' close. But hey.. I realise some don't want to hear that.
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notable weakness

BABA, -2.6%.. follow through from the new Jim Chanos short
FCX -3.3%.. as commodities remain under broad pressure.. as king dollar threatens >DXY 100
TWTR -4.6%... momo chasers somewhat routed today.

strength: GDX +0.5%.. as Gold holds minor gains of $2. Broadly weak though.

1pm update - broadly weak

Regardless of any bounces, there is a clear short term high of sp'2116, with a viable target of the 2020s within 4-6 trading days. Oil is not helping the main market, -1.8% in the $43s. Metals are very mixed, Gold +$2, whilst Silver continues to implode, -2.0% in the $14.40s.


sp'60min

SLV, weekly

Summary

*precious metals look headed broadly lower into year end, not least if rates are hiked... and with a stronger USD.
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So.. a little bounce from the morning low of sp'2068 to 2075.

The 200dma is within easy range tomorrow. Things only get interesting on a Tuesday break into the 2050s.

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notable weakness

AA. -6.0%... one of the worse performers across the last year.
BAC -1.3%.. as the powerful rate-hope gains see a natural retrace.
TSLA -3%
TWTR -4.4%... no momo chasers today.

strength: APA, +11%..on takeover chatter.

12pm update - bearish signals

US equity indexes are significantly lower, with the sp'500 headed straight for the 200dma (2063). The 2020s will  make for a very natural retrace within 4-6 trading days. Oil remains notably weak, -1.3%


sp'daily5

USO' daily2

Summary

*note the MACD (blue histogram) cycle... having now turned negative. Most indexes will be negative by tomorrow.

A bearish MACD cross is always an important signal.. and by default... the current short term trade is to the short side.
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All talk of the sp'2120s and even new historic highs is fading across the blogosphere.. and even the mainstream are (amusingly) a little concerned.

Best guess remains... the 2020s... that seems a very viable target.. before resuming higher into December.

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VIX update from Mr P.



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time for lunch

11am update - borderline significant

US equities are breaking new cycle lows to sp'2077.. with VIX battling upward to 16.17. It would seem extremely probable that 2116 is a short term peak, and we're set to decline to the 2020s, but that will take until opex week. Oil is notably weak, -1.2% in the $43s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With a break into the 2070s, there should be little doubt now... a test of the 200dma (sp'2062) is due this week.. the only issue is how much below that can we fall this week.

Right now, the 2040/30s look overly difficult.
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notable strength: DIS +0.8% in the $116s... as the Star Wars hysteria inexorably builds

weakness: TWTR -4.0%.. the momo chasers are on the run today.

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, with the sp' -0.6% in the 2080s. Market looks set for the 2060s this week, with 2020s viable by Nov' opex.  Oil is notably weak for the fourth consecutive day, -0.2%


sp'daily5

USO' daily2

Summary

*VIX confirming the opening equity weakness, +9%... aiming for a break into the 16s.
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So, we're lower, and the sp' looks set for a fourth net daily decline... although clearly, we're yet to see any significant downside action.

Even the mainstream seem to recognise that after six weeks up... we are due a retrace.

Frankly, if we aren't at least briefly in the 2020s - where the 50dma will be by Nov'opex, I'll be surprised.
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notable weakness:

AA, -2.0%... ugly broader chart.. despite the main market ramp from August.
TSLA -1.6%
UAL -1.6%... airlines struggling, even with Oil red.

strength: Oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both +1% or so. Although broadly,  both stocks remain utterly destroyed since summer 2014.
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stay tuned.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 2094. USD is cooling, -0.2% in the DXY 98.90s. Gold +$6. Oil +0.4% in the $44s.


sp'daily5

Summary

Unless we break above sp'2116, a retrace is still viably already underway.

Equity bears should be seeking a daily close under the 10MA (2092 or so).

Daily MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to turn negative late today/early tomorrow.

Min' downside target is the 200dma in the 2060s, but almost equally likely is the 50dma, which by Nov' opex will be in the 2020s.

On no realistic outlook does sustained price action under the sp'2K threshold look possible in the remainder of the year.

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Overnight Asia action

Japan: +2.0% @ 19642... the big 20K threshold is within range
China: +1.6% @ 3646.. cruising upward.

Indeed, Asia and European markets are broadly battling upward, and look set to re-take old support of the 10MA.. whether by end Nov... or end year.
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Have a good Monday.