Monday 16 April 2012

Daily Cycles...a very mixed picture

If you looked over all of the monthly and weekly charts I posted this past weekend you'll be aware that things look increasingly bearish in the mid-term (3-9 month view).

The daily cycles though are very mixed and confusing. It could be understandable why someone would be suggesting 100% long right now....and yet at the same time, there are bear flags growing on many of the daily charts.

The 'rainbow' charts are also a real mix, we have a confirmed buy signal on the Transports index, but most of the other indexes are neutral, except for Nasdaq which remains an outright sell.

Daily cycles...

IWM, daily

Dow, daily

NYSE Comp, daily

Nasdaq Comp, daily

Transports, daily

Sp, daily



There are very clear bear flags on the daily cycles. The transports is now the strongest index, with the only buy signal in my view (although yes, a 'buy signal' is a highly subjective issue amongst the chartists))

I would guess -and it is my best guess, we'll cycle up for a few max out the 60min cycle (1395/1405) before we break around sp'1340 sometime next week.

Right now...pretty clear sell stops for the serious money...
Bears....1422 ...although of course, many might want a lot tighter than that..1410/15..maybe.

*one final posting to come today, due around 9pm EST....not sure on what aspect yet..maybe Oil/Commodities.

Closing Brief - a messy close

Hmm..a real mess of a day..and once again the bears took some degree of control in the final hour.


Bulls FAILED to get a close over the important 10MA. It could still easily be a large 2 day bull flag - as part of the B' wave...and we 'should' then get a 2 day C' wave 1395/1405  concluding no later than early Thursday.


Bears gained another small victory via the VIX closing about the 10MA. We're only 1.3pts below the recent 21.00 peak. Even a small gap lower in the indexes could knock the VIX above 21..and on its way to 24.

Overall, the day was a victory to the bears, even though the Dow, Trans, and Rus'2000 closed up.

More later.. where I'll be looking at the daily cycles

2pm Update - late day ramp?

After a double stop sweep in the opening it looks like the maniacs will let this market break higher after all.


Key issues
Bulls will need to see a close above the 10MA, and preferably above 1380.

Bears just need to see yet another lower high put wave, no higher than 1388 Tue/Wed, although even if we break into the 1390s...if its an ABC/wave'2 up...then it is still a valid bearish count.

AAPL remains a real battleground too...certainly makes for some free entertainment.

More after the close!

Lunch time Update..1357 line in the sand

Still a weak market...


Without question, 1357 is the line in the sand for the serious/big money to have their ultimate stop-loss. If 1357 does not hold, then a move to 1340 Tue/Wed.

How we close today will indeed be very important. Lately, we seem to get a last hour sell off.

Bears..for the moment..remain in control.

11am Update...nasty market

This is one nasty market. They swept out all the weak bears at the open...then....they whack it lower..and knock out all the bulls they had sucked in who were chasing it higher. Now, they look like they are making a floor...and market will still close higher by end of the day.

A double stop-sweep, I guess you might call it, all within the space of an hour.


I'm guessing the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle will level out within the next hour or two..and we will close higher, with probably Tue/Wed' getting us near 1395/1405..before falling after OPEX.

More later...good wishes..on what is a tricky trading day.

10am Update - choppy open!

A surprisingly strong open..which has fizzled quickly away on the SP and the Nasdaq...with AAPL leading the way lower.

Sp'60min - bearish outlook

Hourly cycle could certainly still fall further - there is no sign of a decisive turn upward yet.

The bulls really need to hold the current level, otherwise the previous low of 1358 will surely be taken out.

Bulls need a close over the 10MA, currently still falling at sp'1376.

More later