US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 1942. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and +0.8%% respectively. Near term outlook is broadly bullish, into the sp'1950s, although the 1960/70s are just about viable if Mr Market can cope with whatever Yellen has to say at the Wednesday press conf'.
sp'60min
Summary
So..some mixed chop into the close..as expected.
We have the Fed tomorrow...but that is unlikely to provide any surprises.
*I hold long overnight, and will probably hold much into Thur/Friday, when we have quad-opex
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*probably back later...at 8pm EST, for a daily wrap.
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US indexes are holding moderate gains, with the sp' set for a daily close in the mid 1940s. With the FOMC announcement tomorrow at 2pm, the market will likely remain in a holding pattern for the next 4-5 trading hours.
With the R2K set to break through into the 1180s, and the sp' set for a daily close somewhere in the mid 1940s, equity bears are being ground down once again... to dust. VIX is in melt mode, -3% in the low 12s, with a likely return to the 11s tomorrow.
R2K, daily
Summary
Suffice to say.. a bit of a mixed day for the broader market, but a lot of the high beta names are seeing pretty strong gains.
The sp' looks set for the 1950s tomorrow..whether we can just keep grinding higher into quad-opex this Friday.. 1960/70s..or see a retracement..difficult to say.
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Regardless.. I hold long.
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Notable strength: SCTY, +16% or so..with another 5-10% to go.
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The R2K is set for a daily close in the 1180s, which would make for a clear break of RS (right shoulder) resistance, and violate the remaining bearish H/S scenario. It all bodes for higher levels in the rest of the market...with sp'1950s..if not the 1960/70s by quad-opex.
R2K, daily
Summary
*I remain long the R2K (via IWM calls), seeking an exit in the 1190s tomorrow, I just wonder if 1200 is possible on an FOMC spike, which might equate to sp'1960s.
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US equities continue to battle it out, but the equity bulls have the edge..as most clearly indicated via the second market leader.. .the R2K. In more important matters though..its time for Belgium vs Algeria :)
sp'60min
Summary
So..a bit of a choppy morning, and I'd guess the cheer leaders on clown finance TV are getting a little bit confused. I managed to stomach almost a full hour of them this morning... do I get a prize?
*I hold long via CHK, WFM, and an index long (IWM), seeking an exit in the R2K 1190s...which seems viable late tomorrow/early Thursday.
US indexes are battling pretty hard this morning, especially in the R2K, which looks set to break back into the 1180s by late Wednesday. Metals have recovered from the earlier low (Gold -$12)...with Gold now -$2. Meanwhile... Oil is relatively flat, despite the continued Iraq chatter.
R2K, daily
Summary
*minor down cycle underway... hmm
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Suffice to say... the trend is to the upside, and although things could be largely churn until the FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon, I just can't see any hope for the bears.
The minor opportunity of a bear flag, is likely off the agenda..as again suggested by the R2K.
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Notable strength: Solar city, (SCTY) +11% @ $60s, and looking set for 68/70 in the near term.
Equities open a touch lower, but the equity bears remain powerless, and we have a clear reversal underway. The R2K looks especially bullish, with upside into the 1190/1200s this week, which would decisively break the remaining bearish H/S scenario.
R2K, daily
Summary
*I am long the R2K, seeking an exit in the 1190s within the next few days.
However, if we do see the 1190s, I'll also be resigned to much higher levels by mid July, 1225/50 zone, and so I would look to repeatedly go long the R2K for another month.
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Notable strength,
NFLX, daily.
Talk of the big $500 again, which indeed seems viable by next earnings.
10.12am... sp'1941...and we're headed to new highs....with the R2K powering higher.
The 1960/70s will soon be within range....although I don't quite expect that tomorrow.
Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +3pts, we're set to open around 1940 - a mere 15pts shy of breaking a new historic high. Precious metals are weak, Gold -$7. Equity bulls should be seeking moderate net daily gains, with the sp' in the 1945/50 zone.
sp'60min
Summary
*awaiting CPI data at 8.30am
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So, we're set to open a little higher, and I'd be surprised today if we don't get a daily close somewhere in the sp'1940s.
Yes, it could be a bear flag - as seen on the hourly/daily charts, but... price action does not favour the bears. It took the bears almost a whole week just to knock the market from 1955 to 1925, and I sure don't see sub 1900s any time soon.
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Video update from Mr Carboni
Certainly, I agree with Oscar on the R2K, and I am seeking the 1190/1200s within a few days.
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Good wishes for Tuesday trading!
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8.33am. data comes broadly in line.... but indexes swing lower... sp -2pts, 1935.
US indexes saw minor chop across the day, sp +1pt @ 1937. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +0.4% respectively. The broader trend remains one of underlying upside, with new historic highs into the sp'1960/70s viable later this week.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly8b
Summary
A pretty quiet day in market land, and in many ways, this could remain the case until Wednesday afternoon. Yet, even then, the market is not likely to be surprised. Just about everyone is expecting QE taper'5.
All things considered, there is little to get me interested on the bearish side, unless we are trading in the 1960/70s. Even then, the problem will be, just what would be the reason the market might fall, other than a natural down cycle?
Looking ahead
Tuesday will see CPI and housing starts, certainly enough to get the market moving at least a little.
*next sig' QE is not until Thursday.
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**I continue to hold long via CHK, WFM, and an index block
