Despite another day of moderate weakness in US equities, the VIX remains very subdued, settling -0.5% @ 14.01. Even the VIX 15s look difficult to hit in the immediate term, and the 20s look next to impossible this autumn, baring a black swan (if not an entire flock).
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Despite the sp'500 declining for a fifth consecutive day, the VIX managed to yet again close marginally lower. Ohh, sure, it didn't close in the 13s, but it remains absolutely clear, this remains a fearless market.
There is literally near zero concern of the debt ceiling/US Govt' shutdown. Mr Market knows the Fed is going to continue to throw $85bn of new money at it for months..if not years to come.
Indeed, in the bigger picture...equity bulls have little to be concerned about.
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The main indexes closed moderately weak, with the sp -4pts @ 1692. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, closed -0.7% and -0.1% respectively. Near term trend is weak, but the bigger weekly trend remains to the upside, with a target of sp'1750/75 in October.
sp'60min
Summary
Today was the fifth consecutive daily decline in the sp'500, the last time that happened was last December. A sixth day tomorrow, would need us to go back to last July...when sp' was a mere 1266. Distant days eh?
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Trading volume remains very low, and despite the declines, the mood in the market doesn't even rate as slightly concerned - as reflected in a VIX that still closed lower!
The market remains seeing a lot of price chop, with the Sp/dow lower by around 0.2%. Certainly, a pretty dull day. The smaller 15/60 minute index cycles are offering gains into the close, but there is increasingly stiff resistance at sp'1700. Oil is especially weak, -0.8%
sp'60min
Summary
Its tough to call this close. The smaller cycles are certainly offering upside, but..there isn't much power on the upside right now. It merely seems to be a case of 'slow melt lower', which is ironic, considering the QE-pomo today of around $3bn.
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A stock I continue to notice today...STX.. one of the strongest ones out there today...
updates into the close..if necessary
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3.13pm.. market making a play to break resistance again... its pretty clear..a daily close in the 1700s would open up much higher levels.
The main indexes are moderately lower, after the late morning bounce fails at resistance. If sp'1691 is broken - which now seems likely, then a move to the low 1680s is again viable for early Thursday. VIX is showing little concern though, up a mere 1.4% in the 14.20s.
sp'60min
Summary
As night falls in London city, the market is again feeling a little of the autumnal weakness.
Who wants to go long into the close?
Yet, from an hourly chart perspective, this is a pretty lousy place to be going short...aside from those with tight stops around sp'1700/05.
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Highlighted from clown finance TV, Walmart took a brief tumble on a news report - about stock inventories, which WMT is disputing.
Twitchy market indeed!
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I was going through my individual company charts, and I noticed STX..which I've not looked over in some time. Seagate is having a particularly strong day..and I'm not sure why!
STX, daily
A classic example of old resistance becoming support - in the $37s, in late August. Trend is clearly..up! More on STX later I think.
The main indexes remain somewhat choppy. One issue is whether the sp' can avoid a fifth consecutive daily decline, which would be the first time since Dec'2012 (6 days - July 2012). Equity bulls should be content with any close in the sp'1700s.
sp'60min
Summary
Price formation is pretty clear on the sp' hourly chart. A daily close in the 1700s will break the down trend from last Thursday.
*it should be noted, whilst the headline indexes continue to struggle, the R2K has broken new highs, arguably equivalent to sp'1735.
Certainly, that is something all those touting a big wave lower need to reflect upon.
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1.38pm.. price action is very similar to yesterday. Early low, a few hours bounce, but latter day weakness.
The main indexes are moderately higher, with the sp' back over the 1700 psy' level. VIX is showing a market with little concern about debt ceilings/govt' shutdown, -1%, back in the 13s. Precious metals are building on earlier strength, Gold +$13.
sp'60min
Summary
So...we're a little higher after breaking new lows.
Considering the bigger weekly trends, this market is prone to another multi-week wave higher starting at any point.
*I remain long, will look for an exit late Friday in the 1720s...if possible! Although the bigger target is 1750/75 for October.
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Another morning of equity weakness, but the hourly index charts are offering a potential floor at sp'1691 - around the second gap level and fib' 38% retrace. VIX is showing zero concern, and is now already fractionally red! Metals continue to see moderate chop, with Gold +$5
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
All things considered, this could easily be the floor, but confidence is not high..yet.
Bulls need to break back into the 1710s before they can start getting confident for October.
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*underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) hourly cycle is offering some good divergence. At the current rate, best case for equity upside will not be until tomorrow.
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11.47am... sp'1705..first target...although there is multiple resistance.
Again, like yesterday, bulls should merely aim for ANY close above 1705.
The main indexes are again showing some weakness, with the sp' vulnerable to a break into the 1680s. VIX is showing only mild concern though, +3% in the 14.50s. Metals and Oil are seeing minor chop. Despite the early weakness, this is very likely just a small pull back.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Next soft level of support is 1690, if that fails to hold, then we'll probably go the all way down to the 1680/77 zone, where there are another set of resistance/supports.
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One thing though is clear, the bears ARE themselves still weak. We're not seeing any real downside power. Market is merely slipping a little lower each day, and you can be sure the next big up wave will be here soon enough.
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Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 1696. Precious metals and Oil are both higher by around 0.3%. Equity bulls need to hold the low 1680s in the coming days, which considering the bigger trend, still seems very likely.
sp'60min
Summary
Yet again, the market looks set to open somewhat weak. Certainly, the bulls are not getting any major gap higher (the last one of those was 8 trading days ago).
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*I remain long, seeking much higher levels in October.
Notable early mover - FB, already +1.3%, in the $49s, a daily close in the 50s will be viable if the sp' can at least hold the 1690s.
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Video update from Mr C, for the Gold bugs out there...
Have a good day!
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8.46am... indexes starting to turn positive, sp +2pt.... with Gold now red.. -$5
The sp'500 closed lower for the fourth consecutive day, and understandably, some of the equity bears are getting a little excited about the autumn ahead. Yet, the broad trend remains to the upside, and baring a few daily closes in the sp'1670s, the autumn does not yet look promising for the doomer bears.
sp'daily3 - fib retrace
sp'weekly8 - mid-term bullish outlook
Summary
The current four day down cycle for the sp'500 (certainly, not all indexes were lower today!) is kinda interesting. The fib' retrace is suggestive we might get stuck around 1690/1678. There is the 50 day MA of 1679, and arguably the even more important 10MA..also at 1679.
Frankly, I do understand why some chartists/traders out there are getting a little excited about the autumn ahead, but really, the primary trend remains to the upside..as it has done since Nov'2012..when the sp' was 354pts lower (a clear 20%).
How we close Friday..and indeed the month/third quarter (next Monday) will be important. Arguably, bulls should be content with anything in the 1700s, which looks attainable by the Monday close, even if 1680s are hit this Wed/Thursday.
Looking ahead
There are durable goods orders and home sales data. If either of those come in weak, it'll probably be the excuse the bears need to push the market lower by around 1% into the low 1680s.
*there is sig' QE-pomo of around $3bn,...as ever, bears beware!
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As noted earlier, the hourly index charts are now offering the bears a further small wave lower, perhaps down to the sp'1685/80 zone. That would make for a very natural place for the current multi-day down cycle to complete.
Baring any daily closes in the 1670s, I have little concern, and remain on the long side, although yes..I'm underwater (but only to my knees).
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Video update...
Something for the economists out there...from Gordon T Long
The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp -4pts @ 1697. The two leaders - Trans/R2K both closed a touch higher. With a sub sp'1700 close, it would appear the bears might be able to achieve another small wave lower, into the low sp'1680s, before the bulls can wrestle back full control.
sp'daily5
R2K
Trans
Summary
For the sp'500, this was the fourth consecutive daily decline, only the second one in the past four months. It should be noted that the indexes did close somewhat mixed, and even the Nasdaq managed a fractional gain of around 0.1%.
The hourly index charts closed weak, and it would seem the bears have a fair chance of pushing down into the low sp'1680s.
Only if we see a daily close in the 1670s would I get concerned of a change in the bigger picture. We've been in this situation dozens of times in the past two years, and it hardly ever ends up in favour of the bears.
Best guess right now...a further fall to 1685/80, no later than early Thursday, before a recovery into the weekly close..and next Monday (the end of the third quarter).
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