Friday 18 August 2017

Naturally choppy

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -4pts at 2425 (intra low 2420). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -8.3% at 14.26. Near term outlook offers choppy upside to at least 2462/68. Things will turn very bullish again with a daily close >2474. Broadly, the 2500s do seem very viable in September, before chance of a full 5% retrace.. the horror!




Equities opened a little weak, and saw a moderate washout to 2420. Notably - as I was seeking, the VIX stayed well below last Friday's closing high of 16.66, and that made for a particularly stark divergence. The market battled upward into the early afternoon, helped with a 'Bannon leaves, Cohn to stay' story.

Cyclically though, the market was always going to be inclined to stabilise/rally anyway. Its just a case of the mainstream always seeking to pin an 'excuse' for a particular market swing.

Market volatility climbed in early trading, with the VIX maxing out at 16.04. As equities recovered, the VIX was quickly crushed to the 13s. Having seen the 11s (with sp'2474) this Wednesday, its not a stretch to see the 10/9s before end month, especially if the market believes US-DPRK relations are at least not getting any worse.

The London crane index continues to increase

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Goodnight from London

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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes