US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -31pts @ 2012 (intra
low 1989). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.1% and -2.4%
respectively. The VIX was naturally on the rise (intra high 23.36), but with equities seeing a spike into the close, settling +13.7% @ 20.70.
sp'daily5
Trans, daily
VIX'daily3
Summary
Unquestionably, a daily for the equity bears. Indeed, it was the third consecutive net daily decline for all US indexes. The VIX certainly confirmed the equity weakness, with an important daily close above the key 20 threshold.
A move to sp'1950 looks extremely probable this week, and that would likely equate to VIX 26/27.
The bigger weekly/monthly charts are offering downside to sp'1920/00 in the immediate term. Were that the case, VIX would be in the low 30s.
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*At 8pm EST I will publish the outlook for 2016, along with YOUR predictions :)
US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -31pts @ 2012 (intra low 1989). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.1% and -2.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers a gap fill at 1950, if not a little lower to the 1920/00 zone - as suggested by the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: weakness to 1993, but holding the morning low of 1989, spiking higher into the close, as no doubt some equity bears closed out after a third net daily decline.
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... and that concludes trading day'1 of 250 (or so) in 2016.
Clearly, a day for the equity bears, having seen a fair few aspects of support broken under.
I realise some will be calling a floor from 1989, but that makes ZERO sense as a key floor for early January.
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Highlight of the day... seeing Pisani quoting circuit breaker limits in the early morning. Those cheerleaders on clown finance TV sure get spooked easily.
If the market sees broad weakness in the weeks and months ahead, the mainstream will no doubt start to get real moody with Yellen. Calls for more money printing will soon start appearing.
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a daily wrap will appear at 6pm EST.
The 'outlook for 2016' - with YOUR predictions, will appear at 8pm.
All US equity indexes are set for a third consecutive net daily decline. With the sp' having broken multiple aspects of support, the door is wide open to an initial washout for the new year to the sp'1920/00 zone. Gold is holding sig' gains of $14, whilst Oil remains weak, -0.5% in the $36s.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
Suffice to say, a close some where in the sp'1995/2010 zone seems probable.
Price structure is likely to become a more refined bear flag by 11am tomorrow. At that point... market will arguably become a valid short again.
Or maybe you think we'll somehow be trading >2050 any time soon?
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*it should be noted that despite the market rallying 16pts from the low, the VIX held most of the gains, and remains +21% in the 22s. The 30s look viable this week.
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back at the close... unless <1989... in which case I will appear
Ohh.. and I'm just finalising the 'outlook for 2016' post.. that will appear at 8pm EST
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3.28pm.. looking at the micro price action... sub' B of a bear flag? So long as 1989 holds... then yes. A C' UP into tomorrow morning to 2010 would be the most natural outcome.
notable weakness: FB -3.5%, as even the momo leaders are getting the smack down.
3.46pm.. I'm probably starting to get lost in the minor noise, but we could be seeing a C' UP already underway.. with the sp' swinging from 1993 to 2004.
Right now, the market will be liable to get stuck around the hourly 10MA tomorrow @ 2010.
US equities have seen a moderate rally from sp'1989 to 2005. There remains further opportunity of upside into Tuesday, but price structure is offering a baby bear flag... with much stronger downside later this week. First soft target remains the sp'1920/00 zone, which should equate to VIX in the low 30s.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I am trying not to get lost in the minor noise. Clearly, little bounces are due.... but seen on the bigger weekly/monthly charts (across the world.. not just the US)... the trend IS down.
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So... its the 2pm hour.. things are churning a bit, and attention will soon start to turn toward how Asia might trade overnight.
I would imagine the communist overlords might have already ordered the PBOC to buy a few things overnight. Considering the technical break <3400 though, unless they are willing to counter every sale... the Shanghai comp' is going to lose 3K this week.
... and that sure won't help the US market.
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notable reversal.. if still negative...
AAPL, daily
Bear flag already confirmed last Thursday. Despite the current daily candle... I don't think AAPL can hold the $100 threshold much longer.
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US equities are seeing another attempt to rally, but the damage has been done, with multiple aspects of support already decisively broken. Metals are holding sig' gains, Gold +$15. Oil has seen a strong swing to the downside, currently -0.7% in the $36s.
sp'60min
USO'daily2
Summary
*the downside reversal in Oil sure isn't helping the market mood.
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So... a morning low of sp'1989, with an open gap around 2040, although that looks out of range in the near term.
VIX is holding almost all of the gains, +21% in the 22s. VIX sure isn't suggestive equities have seen a multi-day low.
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notable weakness... TSLA -7.4% in the $222s
FCX -5% in the $6.40s.. Freeport would be one of my top 5 names on the 'implosion list' this spring/summer.
With the recent low of sp'1993 taken out (new intra low sp'1989), there is empty air to the minor gap around 1950, with first soft support in the 1920/00 zone. VIX is naturally screaming upward, +22% in the 22s. Regardless of any bounces.. it would seem the market is headed broadly lower.
sp'daily5
VIX'weekly
Summary
*note the upper bollinger on the VIX weekly cycle, the 30 threshold looks a given, if sp'1920s
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Getting rather interesting, isn't it?
Not only is this now the ugliest start to a market year since the 1930s, but the technical breaks should be clear to almost anyone.
As noted at the weekend, unless the bulls can re-take the monthly 10MA, with a Jan' close >2060 or so, the default trade is now to the short side.
US equities remain severely lower, with the sp -44pts @ 1999. There are multiple breaks of support on the bigger daily/weekly cycles. First soft target is the sp'1920/00 zone... and that will probably equate to VIX 31/33. Gold is catching a fear bid, +$17, whilst Oil +1.4% on middle eastern tension.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly8b
Summary
*reminder, I'll post the 2016 outlook later this evening... which partly relates to weekly8b chart.
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Indeed... just look at the daily chart... a very ugly start to the year.
The bigger weekly cycle was offering a giant bear flag...and we've broken that today. With other world equity markets clearly on the slide, there can be high confidence in the US bear flag.
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Meanwhile, in London city...
Feels damn cold today... but still.... next to zero chance of snow until late Jan'
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time to cook
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11.20am... Oh lookie...
The first Fed official of the year
First attempt by PRINT HQ to 'calm the market'. lol
The equity bull maniacs failed to break an important new high. The bull flag from early Nov' has been negated, as also confirmed via strong declines across other world markets. Regardless of any bounces - of which there will doubtless be, first soft target is the sp'1920/00 zone.
sp'weekly1b
sp'monthly3, rainbow
Summary
*a new month/year.. and I'm more inclined to highlight some of the bigger cycles today.
There are some HUGE bearish trend changes underway.
Note the lower bollinger on the monthly and weekly cycles coincide around the 1920/00 zone
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Okay.. so.. day'1, and we're off and running.
re: bounces. Considering other world markets.. a straight run to the low sp'1900s looks possible, if not probable in the near term. Were that the case.. it makes the case for new historic highs extremely difficult, if not impossible for some months.
It is already somewhat amusing to see how the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are getting spooked. Pisani is already talking about circuit breakers. lol
Prices are falling, HALT the market!
Other issues...
Gold, fear bid, +$17
Oil, +2.6%, as the middle east tinderbox becomes ever more... tinder.
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I need at least a little sunshine, back soon
10.35am Market vainly tried to rally.. fails... -45pts.. 1998.... next support is the 1993 low.. but that won't hold.
Really, it seems a straight run to the 1920/00 zone. It'll be pretty funny to see how quickly talk will start to turn of the 'rate hike was the worse fed decision ever'.
In any case.... bigger charts tell the real story.
Good morning. US equity futures are starting the year severely lower, sp -34pts, we're set to open at 2009. Other world markets are starting 2016 even more bearish than they ended 2015, with China -6.9%, Japan -3.1%, and the German DAX currently -4.2%.
sp'daily5
Summary
*overnight low so far was around sp -40pts, so we've already come close to losing the 2K threshold.
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Well, here we go again... and unlike the last 5 years, the market setup is rather bearish indeed. I shall merely refer you to the weekend post for specifics.
... and yes, I'll post the outlook for 2016 later this evening.
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Update from a borderline permabearish Oscar
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Morgan
As ever... make of that, what you will. I sure don't agree with some of it, but if you're looking for bearish chatter, that should help put you in the mood.
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Overnight Asia action...
With the latest PMI number for china coming in with yet another recessionary sub 50 number, the market had the excuse it needed...
China -6.9% @ 3926, with trading eventually being halted in the afternoon. After all, the communists can't have falling prices, as that would upset the serfs. No doubt new witch hunts will be launched... and some traders/analysts/media will 'disappear'.
Japan: -3.1% @ 18450. The big 20K threshold now looks out of range for some months. Ugly... real ugly. How low does the Nikkei need to fall until the BoJ spools up the printers even more?
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Let the games begin...
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8.23am... other issues...
Gold is catching a fear bid, +$14
Oil +1.4% on Saudi/Iranian tensions
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notable early movers...
AAPL -1.9% in the $103s. As noted last week, if AAPL is leading the way, it is warning of much lower levels for the broader market in the near term.
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9.11am.. sp -35pts... 2008. So.. the 2K threshold will be vulnerable this morning. After that, the 1993 low.
Below that.. there isn't anything until the lower weekly bol'.. around 1900.
*watching the Cramer... somewhat amusing. The cheerleaders are already wondering about Yellen and rates. How long until they start murmuring QE4 again?
