Tuesday 14 January 2020

This market is high

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -5pts (0.2%) at 3283. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +0.9%.




US equities opened in minor chop mode, but leaned upward, with the SPX breaking a new historic high of 3294 in early afternoon.

There was a piece of spooky tariff-related news though, which saw the algo-bots panic. From a spike floor of 3277, the SPX settled just a little lower at 3283. Volatility saw an afternoon spike high of 13.82, but settling +0.6% at 12.39.

This market is high

It is unquestionably the case that the US equity market is grossly short/mid term over-stretched. Price action and structure is similar to late 2017/early 2018. We have no less than 12 downside gaps to the mid/low 2900s. It is almost inconceivable those aren't filled sooner, rather than later.

Even Wapner of CNBC recognises this market is getting kinda crazy...

In regards to Ark Invest' touting Tesla (TSLA) to $6000: "Is it just me, or is it the theater of the absurd?" - Wapner.

I will just add that whilst the US/China are set to sign phase'1 of a trade deal on Wednesday, I am guessing there will be a 'sell the signing' equity reaction.

The closing theme to 'Happy Death Day' (2017).
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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