With equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX was back in cooling mode (intra low 21.90), settling -3.0% @ 22.42. Near term outlook offers the sp'1920s, with a mid' February target of the 1940/70 zone, and that should equate to VIX 18/17s.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add, yesterday's messy FOMC action is now fading away.. and the VIX is naturally resuming cooling.
It seems highly probable that we'll see at least a few daily closes under the key 20 threshold.
*if I am right about sp'1970s - around mid Feb', then VIX could get as low as the 17s. Anything <15 looks out of range, not least as underlying equity price action is clearly still very bearish.
US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +10pts @ 1893 (intra low 1873). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for a Friday or Monday close >1900, and that will confirm the 1940/70 zone will be hit in first half of February.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: micro chop.. stuck under the sp'1900 threshold.
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Well, not much to add... despite what was another day of rather significant swings, from 1902 to 1873... and back to 1899.
A daily close >1900 looks due.. whether that is achieved tomorrow or next Monday.. makes little difference. We still look set for the 1940/70 zone.
The real issue is that mainstream will soon be on the 'everything is fine again' train... and how things fall apart then.. should be pretty exciting.
Many will have been understandably dizzy at the ongoing intraday swings, but broader price structure remains a rather clear bull flag. A daily close >sp'1900 will keep open the door for a weekly close in the 1920s - along with VIX losing the key 20 threshold.. and that will give clarity into mid February.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
*note the daily MACD (blue bar histogram) equity cycle, positive for the first time since Dec'31st.
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It is notable that despite the many swings across the last five trading days, the VIX remains relatively subdued (ignoring the arguably 'rogue print' of 27.09).
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I've been going through/updating dozens of individual company charts today.
A few things stood out...
Most of the main stocks look dire... many offer at least 15/20% downside within 2-3 months.
Gold miners are trying to break out of the downward run from 2011
A fair few stocks are already well below their 2008/09 collapse wave lows, and look headed for total destruction.
It'd seem many have already forgotton about Glencore, Freeport, etc.............. industry capitulation is STILL due.
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US equities continue to see rather notable intraday swings, although the VIX is certainly not in favour of broader market downside. A daily close in the sp'1900s remains viable... with a weekly close >1920, regardless of the next lousy GDP data print (market consensus is around 1.0%).
sp'daily5
sp'weekly1b
Summary
*the current weekly candle is already offering a rather clear spike floor from sp'1872. A Friday close >1920 would really give clarity for where we'll be in 2-3 weeks.
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Well, there is little to add.. as the market is fighting hard for a net daily gain.
Volatility is still comfortably above the key 20 threshold, but looks set to melt into the upper teens as early as tomorrow.
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notable weakness, airlines, DAL -3.3%, UAL -3.0%.... higher oil/fuel prices are not going to help.
US equities are making a play to break the early high of sp'1902. A daily close in the 1900s will keep the door open for a weekly close in the 1920s (despite a looming lousy GDP data print), and that should solidify the outlook for another few weeks.
sp'daily5
Summary
Little to add.
The intraday swings are getting pretty tiresome.. almost as much as hearing those who are touting the imminent collapse of the USD or financial system.
In any case... market wants to push upward.
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Despite the market rebound, QCOM is still struggling.
Sustained action >$50 looks out of range until Q4. First soft downside target is $40... most bearish outlook is the 32/30 zone (assuming sp'1600s).
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Another swing from sp'1873-93, with indexes now back to broadly flat. Price action across the past five days is no doubt making most dizzy. Structure is pretty clear - a bull flag, highly suggestive of the sp'1970s by mid February. VIX remains subdued, u/c in the 23s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Little to add.
Price structure IS a bull flag, now five days wide.
If sp'1970s within 2-3 weeks, the mainstream will be rather pleased with themselves... which is when the floor should be pulled out from them. At the very least... that will be rather pleasing to see.
Early gains have failed, and once again, the sp'1900 threshold is proving to be tough for the market to hold above. Despite the current weakness, price structure remains offering a bull flag, will need a daily close >1900 to confirm. VIX is relatively subdued, stuck in the 23/22s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
I'm refraining from reading around today. I can well imagine the mild hysteria on the usual sites anyway.
The daily/weekly cycles do NOT favour the equity bears right now.
I realise some out there are looking for a straight run <1812, but I can't short with the current setup.
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notable weakness..
QCOM -6.2%
I like QCOM, but clearly, seems no point in getting involved (long side), not with high threat of lower indexes into the spring. Earnings were 85 cents, very reasonable, although rev' was -18.7%. Not great... but neither apocalyptic. Forward PE is around 10/9.
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Here in London city...
Its a little sunny, but today, summer feels some years away.
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US equities are seeing renewed strength, battling again for a daily close above the sp'1900 threshold. Price structure is a multi-day bull flag, highly suggestive of the 1970s within 2-3 weeks. Oil is clearly helping spike market mood, +5.8% in the $33s. Metals are losing their fear bid, Gold -$11, with Silver -1.9%.
spdaily5
USO'daily2
Summary
*for now, I'd dismiss the opening black-fail candle in Oil, although clearly, mid term, the gains are unsustainable. Supply cuts need to be severe, and those look some months away.
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The post FOMC bearish hysteria is quickly fading away.
With price structure as it is, a weekly close >1920 looks probable, although that won't be easy, as the market has to cope with a reminder tomorrow morning that growth is slowing.. if not an actual economic contraction.
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notable strength, FB
Breaking above resistance, but then earnings were actually very good.
*I wonder how many retail amateurs were trying to short that one for earnings... on margin. No doubt, some are covering for their lives right now.
US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 1886. Whilst the USD is broadly flat in the DXY 98.80s, metals are cooling, Gold -$6. Oil is trying to build further gains, +1.3% in the $32s.
sp'60min
Summary
So, yesterday afternoon clearly rattled many.
There is a lot of chatter that we're now on a resumed downward trend under the 1812 low within a week or so
Err.. no. That looks overly difficult from a pure cyclical perspective. I can't think of a major down wave that restarted with the current technical setup.
Best guess remains: 1940s... at minimum... if not the 1970s by mid February. At that point the mainstream will be rather pleased with themselves, and will likely be back to near total complacency.
The bigger issues of industry capitulation within the oil/gas and mining sector is due this spring... and its somewhat bizarre that very few are even considering it.
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notable early movers
FB +14% @ $107s. Earnings were actually rather good, EPS 79 cents on rev' $5.4bn.
UA +12% in the $76s, more post earnings joy, EPS 48 cents
EBAY -12% @ $23, EPS 46 cents, but with a 'soft outlook'.
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Update from Mr C.
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Overnight action..
Japan: choppy, -0.7% @ 17041
China: unravelling into the close, -2.9% @ 2655
Germany: remaining weak, currently -1.6% @ 9726
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*awaiting Durable Goods Orders data @ 8.30am....
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It was a pretty dynamic day of swings for US equities. After a morning low of sp'1887, there was a very natural up wave to a new cycle high of 1916. Yet, the Fed press release gave the market the excuse for another whipsaw lower, with a late afternoon low of 1872.
sp'daily5b
sp'weekly6
Summary
*waiting for the first blue weekly candle, and in theory - based on many previous cycles, we could easily see 3-5 of them, before the next multi-week down cycle.
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Suffice to add, the daily candle was of the bearish engulfing type, and that sure shouldn't inspire those who are currently long.
I realise many out there are getting bearish, but cyclically, the setup does not favour the bears.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the weekly jobs report, Durable Goods Orders, and Pending Home Sales.
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To wrap up tonight...
So.. how exactly should I reply to that message, which was subsequently deleted by the original poster?
I have tried... best I can across almost four full years to provide something at least occasionally useful, but clearly its still not enough for some of you.
US equities closed significantly lower, sp -20pts at 1882 (intra high
1916). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.5%
respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish into February, but
clearly... the market is unsettled, as there are multiple econ/corporate
concerns.
sp'daily5
Trans
Summary
Suffice to add... the daily candles are certainly somewhat bearish.
Yet.. on balance, when considering today was a Fed day (prone to swings), and the bigger weekly cycles, the recent low of sp'1812 should comfortably hold.
First target remains 1940s, if not the 1970s by mid February.
