Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -0.7pts @ 2099. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook remains uncertain whilst the Greek situation remains unresolved, there is reasonable opportunity for a minor retrace to the 50dma in the sp'2045/50 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*a closing hour of minor chop... seems we get selling around the sp'2100 threshold.. although not surprising after a 6% ramp from sp'1980.
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Another pretty dull day in market land.

Underlying pressure is clearly still to the upside, and the level of market confidence remains incredibly high.. despite the unresolved Greek situation.

Overall, I think we're due a retrace to the 50dma... with Greece being used an excuse.
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A daily wrap at 8pm EST.

3pm update - weakness into the close

Despite the FOMC minutes touting more 'patience', equity indexes remain moderately weak, and look set to slip further into the close. Immediate thresholds remain sp'2092, along with VIX 16.70s. Metals are holding minor gains, having bounced, Gold +$1. Oil is resuming the slide, -2.6%.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So... despite a brief jump... market looks set for weakness.

Primary target within 2-3 days is the 50dma of sp'2045.. which is itself rising each day.
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Notable weakness, financials... BAC -2.1%
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3.26pm... Indexes back to flat...  VIX flat....    hmm


3.38pm.. A brief hit of sp'2100... and a little selling... but still... tiresome day of very little.


3.42pm.. VIX looks floored on the 15/60min cycles... from 15.74...   what will be decisive is whether VIX gets stuck in the mid 17s... or can put in a daily close >17.50 within remainder of the week.


3.50pm... Who wants to buy over sp'2100 right now?   Hmmmmmm

back at the close....

2pm update - time for some fedspeak

US equities remain moderately lower, ahead of the latest FOMC minutes. A break under sp'2090 would open up a test of the 50dma (2045) within a few days. VIX is holding minor gains +3% in the 16.20s. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7. Oil is similarly on the slide, -2.0%


sp'60min

VIX'daily2

Summary

... lets see what the algo-bots make of the Fed press release...


*second blue candle on the VIX daily 'rainbow' chart... kinda interesting... but until 17.50s... its mostly noise.
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Notable weakness: RIG -1.9%... lower oil prices are not helping.
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2.03pm.. more of the 'patience' crap.... indexes jump...  although its nothing too significant.

So tired of the word games we see in these financial times.

Metals trying to recover, Gold -$4


2.06pm.. Smaller 5/15min cycles will be maxed out around 2.30pm... so..  there is a chance of weakness into the close.


2.19pm.. Now its a race... to break under the 2092 before the close.... a mere 0.3% lower.... not exactly a bold target!

VIX battling to hold the 16s. a daily close in the 17s would be pretty significant.

2.29pm... 2094........ hmm... kinda interesting... eyes to the VIX for confirmation

12pm update - continued minor weakness

Equities remain a touch weak, but like yesterday, there is the threat of new historic highs this afternoon. Metals have snapped lower, Gold -$8, having lost the $1200 threshold. Oil is similarly weak, -1.9%, but still above $50.


sp'daily5

vix'60min

Summary

Pretty quiet day... and its getting a little tedious again.

It is arguable that we have a baby bull flag on the VIX hourly... an attempt to break next resistance in the mid 17s seems likely tomorrow. A brief move to the 18/19s remains very viable before the weekend.
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VIX update from Mr T. (due)

*seemingly not to appear today....

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time for lunch.... back at 2pm

11am update - minor chop

It remains a case of minor chop for US equities... with the usual underlying upward bias. VIX opened to 16.74, but the opening hourly black-fail candle - in a price gap zone no less, does not bode well for those seeking more sig' volatility. Metals remain weak, Gold -$2 @ $1207.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Another day of minor churn.. but with new highs... that would seem to be the case.

The only minor hope for the bears is a sporadic headline about Greece. The FOMC minutes are due at 2pm, but really... that will likely not upset anyone.
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Notable weakness: RIG -1.1%.. as many are again wondering if a key floor is actually in for energy stocks/Oil (I don't).

Strength: Copper miners, FCX/TCK, both higher by around 2%

10am update - minor weakness

Equities are a little lower, but much like yesterday, it won't much for the market to break new highs into the afternoon. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$1, set to lose the $1200 threshold.. and eventually the $1130 November low.


sp60min

Summary

Little to add.

I think its a case of lets see what the algo-bots make of the FOMC mins at 2pm
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VIX is higher for a second day, but until its above the mid 17s, its all minor noise. 

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open at 2097. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1, with Silver -0.4%. Oil is resuming the slide, -1.5%.


sp'daily5

Summary
Clearly, the immediate trend remains bullish, its going to take a major 'NO !' from the ECB or Greece to upset the current trend.

At best, equity bears might retrace this market to the 50dma, but even that looks difficult right now.

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Update from Oscar


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Have a good Wednesday

Daily Wrap

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts @ 2100 (new historic high of 2101). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers a minor retrace to 2060/50s, but a break under the giant 2k threshold now looks well out of range.


sp'daily5

R2K, daily

Summary

Little to add.

New historic highs for the sp'500 and R2K, with post 2009 highs for the Nasdaq Comp'

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VIX update

Notable net daily gains, but until VIX can break back above gap resistance.. with a daily close in the 17s... its all minor noise.

VIX'daily3

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Closing update from Riley



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Looking ahead

Wed' will see quite a few things.....  housing starts, PPI, indust' prod', and the FOMC minutes (2pm). Certainly, that should be plenty enough to give the market an excuse for more dynamic price action than we saw today.
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Goodnight from London