3pm update - VIX spike, market teasing the bears

With the VIX spiking 14% into the 18.30s, with sp'1690s, the equity bears are likely just being teased. Baring zombie hoards roaming the western world this weekend, there will be no default, and the political maniacs (all working on the same team)..will come forward with an agreement.


vix'60min

sp'60min

Summary

In the scheme of things, the index moves are still only moderate..we're still not even talking about 1% declines, and the VIX is looking tired on the micro 5/15min cycles.
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As I sometimes say..... don't get lost in the hysteria.
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Oil is especially weak...on the edge.

A daily close under support would be significant.

2pm update - VIX creeping higher

The one notable move right now is the VIX, which has crept from the early low of 16.07...to the 17.30s. There is moderate chance of a further jump at the Wed' open (which is VIX opex) to around 18.50. That could in theory offer the equity bears a brief foray down to the low 1690s.


vix'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Regardless, nothing has really changed. Underlying upward pressure is still there, and even if we somehow briefly drop on renewed concern that 'time is running out'...the market should broadly hold together.

*Oil is somewhat following the main market, currently -0.6%. A positive close now looks very unlikely...urghhh
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2.38pm.. VIX accelerating... 18.50 is the next zone..

vix'5min

hmm..and sp' headed for first support at 1690.

1pm update - tiresome Tuesday

Market has slipped into a subdued state..whilst there is still no agreement. Are we going to get one at 4.01pm this Friday? Metals/Oil remain a touch weak, whilst the VIX is creeping upward..as market gets start to get a little twitchy.


sp'60min

Summary

Equity bulls should be content with any close in the 1700s..which if you really think about it, remains an incredible level considering the ongoing shutdown..and lack of agreement to raise the debt ceiling..with mere days to go.
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Notable mover...  TSLA, holding 3% gains

12pm update - choppy top?

The main indexes continue to see minor chop, and in some ways..maybe it is some kind of short term top. Regardless, equity bears face continued QE, and a default...that is not going to occur. Metals and Oil are both a touch weak. The VIX is holding small gains of 3%.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Its turning out to be something of a quiet day. Considering the ramp from 1646 though, a few days of nothing is perhaps what is needed to fully reset the cycle before the next lurch higher.

I am generally not even watching the news this week. Tired of the nonsense 'could the US really default?' talk. Beyond lame. Even Zerohedge is tedious with article after article on how its all terrible.
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VIX update from Mr T.



time for tea!

11am update - underlying upward pressure

The main indexes have already come close to turning positive. Another hour or so of minor chop, before the QE fuelled nonsense resumes the trend. Metals remain a touch weak, whilst Oil is almost back to flat, after opening -0.7%. VIX is higher, but just 2%


sp'daily5

VIX,daily3

Summary

*VIX looking weak, a weekly close in the 14s..even 13s looks viable, and that might imply sp'1730s.

As expected, the opening declines are very minor, and we'll likely close somewhat higher today. Even the sp'1720s are viable if there is 'good news' that the infamous can has been kicked into next month.
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The momo stocks seem to be doing quite well, esp. FB and TSLA, the latter now +$8

There really isn't any due until Wed' 2pm, when we have the Fed beige book. Until then, probably minor chop, somewhat to the upside.

10am update - minor declines

The main indexes are moderately lower, with the sp -5pts @ 1705. Baring news that an agreement is 'unlikely this week', the market is set for further gains, not least with the usual latter day recovery. QE-pomo of $5bn will no doubt help.


sp'60min

Summary

*there should be very strong support around 1690, although that seems unlikely, since the market is even less prone to downside than it was yesterday - when we opened barely 1% lower.
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so....looking for things to level out this morning..and a positive close.

*I hold long Oil, via USO....not expecting an exit until Wed/Thursday.
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10.21am.. hard to know for sure if the low is already in, but the hourly charts should be fine for upside later this week.

For the bears..no doubt another very frustrating open. Whilst the daily/weekly trends remain pushing higher...it is simply crazy to be shorting this market.

Of course, there are still some suggesting a default..,which is simply nonsense talk.

There will be NO default.

*Oil reversing..offering another reversal candle.

USO, daily2

Should be good once resistance is broken over.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 1708. Precious metals are suffering early losses, Gold -$10, but Silver -50 cents (-2.5%). Oil is moderately weak, -0.5%. With sig' QE today, equity bulls will surely build upon recent gains.


sp'60min

Summary

So..a relatively quiet open..a little chop..and with the daily and weekly charts pushing to the upside, the bulls should manage to close today in the 1715/25 zone.

No doubt many will be calling a top if we're in the 1740/60 zone within the next few weeks, but again, I'll ask..why would it stop there? Equity bears have been under-estimating the power and duration of the up cycles since the multi-year rally started in 2009.
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*Metals look very weak, and it is somewhat annoying to see Silver continue to fall having exited last week. I remain long Oil, and hopefully that will break above resistance either today or tomorrow..and start some degree of multi-day climb.

Early mover: TSLA, +2.9% in the $184s

New historic highs likely

Mr Market remains very strong, and despite mainstream concern at a possible US default, the underlying market doesn't believe it. The weekly index cycles are battling higher, lead by the R2K which incredibly broke a new historic high today. The other indexes...look set to follow.


sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook

R2K, weekly

Summary

First, it should be noted that the R2K broke new highs, which is pretty incredible considering the overnight futures action.

With the break into the sp'1710s today, it looks like an attempt to trade into the 1730s is now viable by the end of this week. That in itself would open up 1750 by the end of the month.


Looking ahead

The market really only cares about one thing...getting an agreement, even if it is just a short term measure. Once there is a provisional agreement, the market should be able to keep pushing higher.

*there is HEAVY Qe-pomo tomorrow of around $5bn.  Bears..beware!
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For many, today was indeed rough, and with the debt can likely to get kicked any time now..at least into November, equity bears look set for more pain.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes strongly recovered from opening declines of around 1%, the sp settled +7pts @ 1710. Near term trend is to the upside, and it would appear Mr Market has very little concern about the debt ceiling issue.


sp'daily5

dow'daily

R2K, daily

Summary

For the bears, a very disappointing day.

Once again the bulls managed a strong turn around..right from the open..and even the closing hour price action was pretty strong.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle for all indexes is going positive cycle, and there is a good 3-6 days further viable..and that should comfortably offer the sp'1730/40s.

a little more later...