Tuesday 13 February 2018

Yet another turnaround Tuesday

US equity indexes closed on a somewhat positive note, sp +6pts at 2662. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled -2.5% at 24.97. Near term outlook offers further upside of 1.5-2.0%, then things get real tricky for the bulls, as a re-test of the hyper-spike low of 2532 is probable.




US equities saw a day of moderate swings, seeing an early low of 2637, but then battling upward into the afternoon. The daily gain is just part of a rally that will likely take the sp' back into the low 2700s. The 50dma - currently at 2720, will offer prime resistance.

Volatility saw an opening high of 27.82, but then melted lower across the day, settling in the upper 24s. Further cooling to near the key 20 threshold looks due within the next few days, before a probable swing back to around 30/35.

Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

The Nikkei is currently net lower for the month by a powerful -8.0% at 21244. Any sustained price action <21k would be a break of key support, and would merit alarm bells. If the BoJ are going to spool up the printers, now would be the time.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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