Friday 29 December 2017

2017 comes to a close

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -13.93pts at 2673.61. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +8.4% at 11.04. Outlook for January/Feb threatens a mini washout of 3-5%, but broadly, we're clearly headed for sp'3K.




In pre-market, the sp' was moderately higher, and offering new historic highs. Yet, as the market opened, the gains quickly failed. Much of the day was just fractional chop. There was distinct weakness in the closing hour, with the sp' settling -0.5% at 2673.

It was a mixed day for the VIX, seeing a low of 9.95, but then swinging strongly higher as equities cooled into the close.

Even the most hyper bullish recognise the market is due a mini washout. The only issue is 'when'. Seasonally, the market is vulnerable from mid Jan-early Feb'. If the bears can't manage anything then, the next realistic window is not until May/June.

Close, real close: sp'monthly6b

My original year target came to be just 9.39pts (0.35%) above the yearly close, which I'm very pleased with.Yours truly now needs to finalise an outlook for 2018, not just for the sp'500, but rate hikes, and various other issues.

A glimpse of sunshine on the last trading day. Bullish!
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the World equity markets.

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