Whilst equities saw minor chop across the day, the VIX managed a minor gain, settling +1.5% @ 11.68. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the 13/11 zone, although if sp'1940/60s in June, then VIX 10/9s look very likely.
VIX'daily3
Summary
*third consecutive daily close in the 11s..remarkable.
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Little to add.
VIX is in micro chop mode..and looks set to remain low for at least another 2-3 weeks.
*I have zero intention of picking up a VIX call block until mid June,
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US equities closed somewhat subdued, sp -2pts @ 1909. There were new historic highs for the Trans/SP'500 of 8102 and 1914 respectively. Near term outlook still offers a minor retrace - if on the excuse of 'weak' GDP.
sp'60min
Summary
*fractional weakness into the close, maybe a few were cashing out ahead of tomorrows GDP (second) reading.
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It was just another day in market land. New highs for the 'old leader', and even though there was some moderate weakness in the R2K across the day, the retrace was very minor - considering the recent gains of almost 6%.
Bigger picture remains the same...multi-week up wave from sp'1814..just keeps on going.
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*I remain on the sidelines, with zero intention of picking up any shorts for probably some weeks.
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US equities look set to trade quietly into the close. For some indexes, it will be the fifth day of consecutive gains, the rest...merely a touch lower. Notable strength in the Transports @ 8096. Metals remain weak, Gold -$7. VIX looks set for another close in the 11s.
sp'daily5
Summary
Sure, the daily charts are getting a little stretched, but hey...there is QE-pomo tomorrow of $3bn or so....and that will be enough to at least keep the sp'1900s into the weekend.
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Notable strength, TWTR, +9%.
The momo chasers are back..at least selectively.
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3.32pm... minor churn...and the TSLA/momo shorts are getting nuked...as it is now +10.4%..and looking set for much higher levels into June.
VIX in danger of closing red..although in the scheme of things, VIX is now meaningless at these levels.
The underlying upward pressure is probably starting to surprise even the most bullish of bull maniacs. Weekly charts are offering the sp'1920/25 zone next week, which should equate to VIX 10s. Metals continue to struggle, Gold -$5
sp'weekly8
Summary
Little to add right now.
Even the upside is starting to surprise me, although there remains weakness in the R2K
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The broader market is largely flat, but there is some distinct cooling down in various stocks, as especially reflected in the R2K, -0.7%, but still a full 45pts above the critical floor of 1080. Metals remain weak, Gold -$6, although there is threat of a minor bounce into tomorrow.
R2K, daily
Summary
It remains a difficult time for many on the bearish side, even those who are refraining from launching any new positions.
Short here...but with real risk of 1920s..if not the 1940/60 zone by mid June.
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For me, I'm content to do nothing. If the market drops significantly tomorrow morning on the 'scary' GDP data...I might buy into that though.
Upside for R2K looks to be at least 1170/80..and that is a good 2.5% higher.
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Equity bears are unable to even claw to the sp'1900 threshold (well, at least today), and the market is breaking new historic highs in the Trans and sp'500. Precious metals remain very weak, with Gold set to fall a further $50 into early June.
sp'daily5
Summary
I realise some will be wanting to short here, but really...why?
How can it be a valid short whilst the weekly/monthly charts are still outright bullish? What about the Transports, which could be in the 8100s tomorrow?
Ohh yeah, the GDP data tomorrow, market will drop then, yes?
Equities are seeing just a touch of weakness, but which is a natural retracement of the recent gains. There is a gap around sp'1900 that just about everyone should be aware of. Market will have a high chance of closing May at/above the 1900s. Metals continue to slide, Gold -$7
sp'60min
GLD, daily
Summary
The action in the metals is certainly more interesting than equities. With Gold breaking support yesterday..there is nothing but empty air below.
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It is notable that VIX is STILL in the 11s...and if you believe sp'1940..or higher..then VIX 10s...if not single digit VIX is coming in June.
Perhaps that will be enough to fully capitulate most of the remaining doomer bears.
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Notable weakness: drillers...declines are building in DO, RIG, SDRL The weekly charts are starting to look suspect, esp' DO (Diamond)
US equities open with minor chop, although the sp'500 has already fractionally broken another new historic high of 1913. Precious metals remain weak, and with Gold below key support, there is plenty more downside ahead.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly8
Summary
No doubt..a fair few will be launching index shorts at these levels.
Good luck with that though. Such traders are shorting into weekly/monthly cycles that continue to push higher, with a VIX that reflects a market that has zero concern about anything into the summer.
With another sig' QE-pomo due tomorrow, the month is set to end on a largely positive note. Even if GDP revised comes in negative, it won't particularly matter, since the market is already expecting it.
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Perhaps, the worse 'doomer' interview I've seen so far this year. It is to be seen, as an example of how consistently stupid some of the 'omg, the financial system is about to collapse' people are.
I could pick it apart into a thousand pieces of 'You idiot, how can you say that...'..but really...Kirby should receive a lawsuit from the Federal Reserve.
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Notable weakness: the drillers, DO, RIG, SDRL, not sure what that is about.
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