Friday 28 March 2014

Volatility climbs into the weekend

With US indexes failing to hold the morning gains, the VIX battled back from an early low of 13.73, settling -1.4% @ 14.41. Near term outlook is for the sp' to break <1830, and that should see the VIX climb into the upper teens. Across the week, the VIX declined by -3.9% .





* we saw the usual 'whack the VIX lower into the weekend', having briefly peaked at 14.86

A closing daily reversal candle on the VIX, but still, that was a bit of a disappointment, after the sp' had rolled over from 1866 in the early afternoon. The VIX is still lacking any significant upside kick. Even the upper teens look difficult to reach.

However, if sp' can break key support in the sp'1830s, then we should see a swift drop in equities to 1800/1790, and that should be enough to kick the VIX to 17/18s. The 20s..look somewhat unlikely.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed somewhat weak, with yet another opening bounce having largely failed, sp +8pts @ 1857. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook remains a break <1830, which will open up the target zone of 1800/1790.



So.. a pretty weak afternoon of minor chop, after yet another opening bounce. Not exactly a full reversal,'ll do.

Considering the number of chances the bulls have already had to break >1883, I just can't see them doing it..before the bears get at least some kind of mini 1800/1790.

*I remain heavy short across the weekend.

Have a good weekend everyone!

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes

3pm update - rats jumping ship into the weekend

US indexes continue to weaken, lead lower (as usual) by the Trans/R2K, with the R2K already red. Equity bears should be absolutely pleased with any daily close in the sp'1840s, with VIX 15s. For the bull maniacs out there.... you don't have my sympathies on your SIXTH consecutive failed bounce.




Last hour of the should be an exciting one.

Hourly index/VIX cycles are strongly primed for a snap move..although I don't think we'll see <1840 by the close..that really would be a surprise.

stay tuned...into the close!

3.14pm...a little chop..but the weakness is STILL there...

for real comedy...

KING, daily

What a great start for another tech stock.

3.28pm...minor chop continues..although still chance of sp/dow turning red by the close.

After all...the rats WILL sell into the weekend.   VIX 15s remain a target...

3.37pm.. Bear flag on the 5min cycle....just need <1852..and a red viable.

*watching clown finance TV for the closing hour... how they talk about 'investing in bitcoin'. sigh.

3.42pm.. R2K remains fractionally red...still time for the Dow/sp' to follow.

*I will hold short across the weekend, seeking a breaking <1830..which should open up 1800/ week.

3.49pm... weak weak weak....time for the day-trading bail!

3.54pm... 2 hours of micro chop...kinda disappointing..oh well, at least we didn't close in the 1860s.

back at the close

2pm update - two hours to close red

Equities are seeing increasing weakness, and with two hours left of the trading week, the big question many of the rats will jump ship? A red close sure won't be easy, but from cyclical perspective, the setup is now in favour of the bears. 




So..two hours... <sp'1849, with VIX 15s?

Place ya bets ;)

2.07pm.. sp'1856... 10pts below the high...and still 114mins to go ;)

For those shorting the mid 1860s earlier...congrats....

2.16pm.. R2K turns ...RED.... rest of the market...set to follow.

2.27pm ..should see weakness all the way into the close. With the R2K already turning red...a close in the low sp'1840s is now viable..which frankly..would make for one hell of a big reversal..

Bulls...FAILED....sixth day.
Anyone wanna go long in the 1850s...into the weekend?  

...didn't think so.

Awaiting an entertaining closing hour.

1pm update - the two leaders remain weak

Despite gains - along with the rest of the market, the two leaders - Trans/R2K, are still weak. Most notably, the R2K is under the 50 day MA, whilst the Trans just can't break and hold the 7600s. Equity bulls face increasing downside pressure into the weekly close.

Trans, daily

R2K, daily


Well, 3 hours left of the trading week, right now, I'd settle for any weekly close in the sp'1850s. The 1840s...look out of range, even if a fair few of the rats jump ship.

Metals are back to flat..and the weekly declines are very significant, more on that later though.

1.03pm.. hourly MACD cycle....rolling over.   Bull maniacs...beware!

Personally, best bear case for the close, is probably 1850..with VIX 15...plenty of time to get there.


Sixth FAILED bounce... how many more do we need to see, before this snaps <1830 ?

1.32pm.. Equity bears should be seeking VIX 15s into the close... the hourly cycle will be primed for a surge in the closing hour.

Are we enjoying the swings....this week, yet?   

12pm update - bounce complete?

US indexes pushed to sp'1866, with VIX hitting a low of 13.73. However, once again, we have a very likely intraday reversal. The issue for the rest of today, is how many of the rats will want to bail into the weekend?




So..we have a potential hourly cycle peak of sp'1866. Clearly, the market is still holding together pretty well, but..with each attempt to bounce..the bulls look ever weaker.

Barring a truly bizarre break to new highs..>1883..these bounces remain be shorted.

VIX update from Mr T

stay tuned.

11am update - market burning the bears

A sixth day where the bears get burnt in the morning, with sp' in the mid 1860s..barely 1% from the historic high. The sand line is clear for both sides. Equity bulls should be seeking a close >1866 for a net weekly gain. Metals have reversed, Gold +$2



Little to add, on what remains just another day, much like the previous five.

Barring a break >1883, bulls have nothing to tout.

Right now, I'd only be concerned on a weekly close >1866

Still.......long day ahead.

11.24am Getting stuck in the mid 1860s.     If we can at least hold <1870 until 2pm...then a close in the 1850s..viable.

10am update - opening gains.. again

The market opens higher for the sixth consecutive day, the issue again is whether we'll see another reversal. Equity bears need to contain the bulls to the 1860s, any break into the 1870s...would be a problem. Metals are weak, Gold -$5


Summary we are ever..what matters how we close...not how we open.

VIX has naturally been knocked back into the 13s.


Bears need a daily close in the 15s..if not the 16s to really confirm better things ahead.

10.03am.. Mr Market washing away..ALL the weak bears...and drawing in the bull chasers.... for the sixth day running.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 1854. Unlike Wed/Thursday, equity bulls have no QE to help, and it will be interesting to see how many of the rats bail into the weekend. Metals are flat, but look set for significant net weekly declines.



*awaiting data: pers' income/outlays, consumer sentiment.

So...yet again, we're set to open higher, but hey, how has that worked out in the previous FIVE occasions?

Bears should seek at least a moderate net weekly decline, right now the breakeven line is sp'1866.


Anything in the 1840s would offer more clarity for next week. A close in the 1830s would be a bonus.

Good wishes for Friday trading.

Morning doom chatter from Hunter


9.10am.... futures remain sp +4/5pts 1854 or so.

Metals have turned lower, Gold -$3.

For the opening 30minutes..look for black-fail candles on the hourly index charts, and a reversal (hollow red) candle on the VIX.

Another reversal today..seems very likely. 

Seeking a break under 1830

The weekly 10MA of sp'1833 remains a key level for the bull maniacs to hold. If it is broken, whether tomorrow, or next Monday, such a break will open up a swift ride lower to 1800/1790. Price action in recent days remains weak, and equity bears have reasonable opportunity at this time.



*the above scenario remains my most bearish outlook. I am still open to the sp'1900s, but if we break <1830.. that will be difficult this spring. Certainly, if we hit the lower weekly bollinger band (1768, and rising), I'd consider 1883 a key intermediate'3 top.

So, just one day left of the trading week, and we are holding a blue candle at sp'1849.

My best hope right now is for a break of 1830, and that will open the door to much lower levels. Whether we get stuck around 1800/1790...or even a little lower...we'll just have to wait and see. The MACD (green bar histogram) remains in negative territory, and the market is very vulnerable to downside into this weekend, and across next week.

Looking ahead

In terms of econ-data, we have personal income/outlays, with consumer sentiment due at 9.55am. So..nothing major is due, and that will give the market an opportunity to trade on underlying price pressure..which right now, is 'weak'.

*There is no sig' QE-pomo until at least next Tuesday....bulls...beware!

Positioned for a major one day fall

I am heavy short, primarily via SDS, and also having again picked up a SPY option put block this afternoon. The following remains an attractive outlook...

sp'60min1b - double H/S

Tomorrow could be pretty exciting for the bears. There is no sig' QE for the bears to be concerned with, and as ever, one key issue will be....'who wants to hold long into the weekend?'.

If the bears can break <1830, by late morning, the afternoon could

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw moderate chop across the day, sp -3pts @ 1849 (intraday range 1842/55). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for a key break <1830, which will open up a swift move to 1800/1790.





Despite the chop, the equity bears did get an important daily close <1850 - which used to be support, and is now becoming resistance.

The two leaders look weak, and they are offering much lower levels, equivalent to sp'1800/1790 which is my primary downside target zone.

a little more later...