Monday 19 March 2018

Pre-FOMC washout

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -39pts at 2712 (intra low 2694). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate chop ahead of the fed. More broadly, a push to new historic highs (>2872) still appears probable this spring.




US equities opened moderately weak, and continued to slide into the afternoon. The sp' saw a spike floor of 2694, and there was a late day mini ramp to 2715. Today arguably makes for a pre-FOMC washout, and on balance, the market should resume strongly upward once the FOMC is out of the way. 

Volatility was naturally higher, with the VIX peaking at 21.87, but settling back under the key 20 threshold.

Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With eight trading days left of the month, the DAX is net lower by a rather significant -1.8% at 12217. The equity bulls (including those in the US) should be seeking a recovery back above the key 10MA, currently at 12634. A March settlement <12600 would be strongly suggestive that the German market has seen a m/t top. 

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @

Goodnight from London
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